March 2020 disc/obs

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone know what storm blew down thousands of trees between Portland and Augusta? Not recent as the wood isn’t fresh. But along 295 Theres thousands of dead ones blown down. Was it that big blow a few years ago?

Didn't they have a crazy macroburst a few years back? 

[tamarack]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone know what storm blew down thousands of trees between Portland and Augusta? Not recent as the wood isn’t fresh. But along 295 Theres thousands of dead ones blown down. Was it that big blow a few years ago?

October 30, 2017.  More CMP customers lost power than in the 1998 ice storm, though restoration in 2017 took days rather than 1998's weeks as infrastructure damage was less catastrophic.  Our agency salvaged about a half million board feet of high quality white pine at Bradley (NE from BGR) and Inland Fisheries and Wildlife salvaged 2 million BF from Swan Island, in the Kennebec 15 miles downriver from AUG.  Though the storm lasted nearly 24 hours, damage in most places occurred during a 20-30 minute period of intense winds (different times at different places.)   I was driving to work when that blast went thru Belgrade Village, and though damage was light there compared to other places, I had to dodge a large red maple in the road, also a studded wall blown from an in-progress addition.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

October 30, 2017.  More CMP customers lost power than in the 1998 ice storm, though restoration in 2017 took days rather than 1998's weeks as infrastructure was less catastrophic.  Our agency salvaged about a half million board feet of high quality white pine at Bradley (NE from BGR) and Inland Fisheries and Wildlife salvaged 2 million BF from Swan Island, in the Kennebec 15 miles downriver from AUG.  Though the storm lasted nearly 24 hours, damage in most places occurred during a 20-30 minute period of intense winds (different times at different places.)   I was driving to work when that blast went thru Belgrade Village, and though damage was light there compared to other places, I had to dodge a large red maple in the road, also a studded wall blown from an in-progress addition.

Oh we had that to a much less severity in CT. Schools were closed 2 days in town from trees and poles down. That was that massive screamer. How strong were the winds up here?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

13, 16, 18? 

We wish but unlikely. I’m not seeing an extreme pattern either way, just a ying and yang type. 

[tamarack]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh we had that to a much less severity in CT. Schools were closed 2 days in town from trees and poles down. That was that massive screamer. How strong were the winds up here?

I don't have the stats, but damage in the worst places was consistent with 60s, maybe 70s, and it was dozens of gusts over that 20-30 minutes rather than a handful in a typical microburst.  That storm also was the 2nd 2"+ rain event in 4 days, so soils were soggy.  (And not to downplay microbursts - in Sept 1986 one flattened 600 acres between Eagle and Square Lakes, 10-15 miles south of Fort Kent, a patch 4 miles long and up to half a mile wide.  Snapped large perfectly sound sugar maples, gusts so strong that trunks broke before roots could be uprooted - probably in the 100 neighborhood.)

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

I don't have the stats, but damage in the worst places was consistent with 60s, maybe 70s, and it was dozens of gusts over that 20-30 minutes rather than a handful in a typical microburst.  That storm also was the 2nd 2"+ rain event in 4 days, so soils were soggy.  (And not to downplay microbursts - in Sept 1986 one flattened 600 acres between Eagle and Square Lakes, 10-15 miles south of Fort Kent, a patch 4 miles long and up to half a mile wide.  Snapped large perfectly sound sugar maples, gusts so strong that trunks broke before roots could be uprooted - probably in the 100 neighborhood.)

Excellent! We love that

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We wish but unlikely. I’m not seeing an extreme pattern either way, just a ying and yang type. 

Looks torchy to me

[MJO812]

Nice norlun for PA on the Nam

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks torchy to me

I still think March is going to be quite warm. Constant theme seems to be for significant ridging to develop across the central Pacific (would love to be able to see AAM/EAMT plots) with wave breaking across the eastern Pacific resulting in the troughs which dig into the west. Unfortunately, with the southeast ridge looking to be quite strong these troughs will quickly become muted as they progress east or they begin to de-amplify and lift to our northwest. I suspect we'll see some days where we get 75-80 in the near future. Time to get all lotioned up and stand outside like a scarecrow. Best way to get an even tan 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I still think March is going to be quite warm. Constant theme seems to be for significant ridging to develop across the central Pacific (would love to be able to see AAM/EAMT plots) with wave breaking across the eastern Pacific resulting in the troughs which dig into the west. Unfortunately, with the southeast ridge looking to be quite strong these troughs will quickly become muted as they progress east or they begin to de-amplify and lift to our northwest. I suspect we'll see some days where we get 75-80 in the near future. Time to get all lotioned up and stand outside like a scarecrow. Best way to get an even tan 

Well maybe 62 65 not 75 80

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks torchy to me

It will be AN overall but an all out torch would mean zero chances at winter. I just don’t see that. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well maybe 62 65 not 75 80

I think that possibility will arise after mid-month. After the warm-up to begin next week we cool down a bit but the pattern that develops after that could be quite warm. Maybe even factor some air mass trajectory from the southwest. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks torchy to me

Yeah looks fairly warm with no arctic shots and a decent amoutn fo zonal flow....but nothing like 2012....there will probably be a couple of snow threats mixed in though due to the extreme cold still lurking in central Canada that makes a run at side swiping us every now and then. Now whether they pan out or not is another question, lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah looks fairly warm with no arctic shots and a decent amoutn fo zonal flow....but nothing like 2012....there will probably be a couple of snow threats mixed in though due to the extreme cold still lurking in central Canada that makes a run at side swiping us every now and then. Now whether they pan out or not is another question, lol.

I realize my post is being ignored out of anguish and disenchanted flopping ... haha, but I do honestly think that 11th-13th has a blue bonnet look to it. 

We'll see..

And I don't have any contention going warmish overall for March ...there's like three pillars of evidence to support that thinking:  

-- seasonal persistence

-- "CC" or a gestaltic relationship to that ... so not outright "because of that" but ...synergistically favored

-- modeling and teleconnectors ... 

But that last point is tricky.  March ...into the first half of April for that matter, have a fickle variability because that last factor tends to entropy ... Neither performs terribly well in transition season, simply put. And part of the performance is the shortening wave-lengths, and the good point you make regarding the cold in Canada - I mentioned that myself - may help this year.  2012 did not have that mass loading up there. Not that I recall. It was a freak hemisphere that year.  It's just simply not modeled that way.  People want to make the 2012 comparison for two reasons in my estimation:  one, early snow followed by months of unrelenting poorer winter performance might bear some resemblance as a step back character ( granted..), but the other reason is hand throwing tantrum frustration.  Unfortunately, ..heh heh, neither would hold up very well to a Chi-test frankly... can't be used.  Coincidences and sore-butting don't offer much deterministic value to weather prediction.  

Tongue-in-cheek aside...   Monday probably nicks 70 over parking lots in metro west and Springfield/HFD ... with 67 at Logan with it's new cold bias we've cleverly inherited ( thank god they sent a technician to fix that!) ... but that's typical before a blue bomb ... In a "holistic" sense, having the GEFs digging at 180 hours is a April 97 mockery but I think is okay actually as at a glance. 

[weathafella]

On 3/3/2020 at 9:55 PM, SnowFeen1 said:

I can’t stand warm air, I can’t stand the humidity. It’s like if I ever was an object I’d be a snowman on the South Pole. I just love holding ice and snow and cannot stand anything warm!

I bet you eat cold hot dogs.... 

[rclab]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I bet you eat cold hot dogs.... 

Buns optional? As always.....

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well maybe 62 65 not 75 80

Keep an open mind, tho - 

 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize my post is being ignored out of anguish and disenchanted flopping ... haha, but I do honestly think that 11th-13th has a blue bonnet look to it. 

We'll see..

And I don't have any contention going warmish overall for March ...there's like three pillars of evidence to support that thinking:  

-- seasonal persistence

-- "CC" or a gestaltic relationship to that ... so not outright "because of that" but ...synergistically favored

-- modeling and teleconnectors ... 

But that last point is tricky.  March ...into the first half of April for that matter, have a fickle variability because that last factor tends to entropy ... Neither performs terribly well in transition season, simply put. And part of the performance is the shortening wave-lengths, and the good point you make regarding the cold in Canada - I mentioned that myself.  2012 did not have that mass loading up there. Not that I recall. It was a freak hemisphere that year.  It's just simply not modeled that way.  People want to make the 2012 comparison for two reasons in my estimation:  one, early snow followed by months of unrelenting poorer winter performance might bear some resemblance as a step back character ( granted..), but the other reason is hand throwing tantrum frustration.  Unfortunately, ..heh heh, neither would hold up very well to a Chi-test frankly... can't be used.  Coincidences and sore-butting don't offer much deterministic value to weather prediction.  

Tongue-in-cheek aside...   Monday probably nicks 70 over parking lots in metro west and Springfield/HFD ... with 67 at Logan with it's new cold bias we've cleverly inherited ( thank god they sent a technician to fix that!) ... but that's typical before a blue bomb ... In a "holistic" sense, having the GEFs digging at 180 hours is a April 97 mockery but I think is okay actually as at a glance. 

I totally agree that there certainly is still some decent cold bottled up there in southeast Canada with some cold 850's, however, it's been that way through much of the winter. I'm not really using persistence at all with my thoughts or forecast...(well perhaps that's a lie) but in order for us I think to utilize that we're going to need to see some drastic pattern change...something much more than just a "relaxation" in the flow. Also, that cold can easily be eroded in the coming weeks. I guess you can argue that by saying this warm look can easily erode too but IMO everything points/signals towards the warmth dominating and by everything I mean global teleconnections. I know they begin to lose their correlation as we move into spring, but at least through the end of model guidance some of those signals remain strong and continue to drive the hemispheric configuration. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize my post is being ignored out of anguish and disenchanted flopping ... haha, but I do honestly think that 11th-13th has a blue bonnet look to it. 

We'll see..

And I don't have any contention going warmish overall for March ...there's like three pillars of evidence to support that thinking:  

-- seasonal persistence

-- "CC" or a gestaltic relationship to that ... so not outright "because of that" but ...synergistically favored

-- modeling and teleconnectors ... 

But that last point is tricky.  March ...into the first half of April for that matter, have a fickle variability because that last factor tends to entropy ... Neither performs terribly well in transition season, simply put. And part of the performance is the shortening wave-lengths, and the good point you make regarding the cold in Canada - I mentioned that myself - may help this year.  2012 did not have that mass loading up there. Not that I recall. It was a freak hemisphere that year.  It's just simply not modeled that way.  People want to make the 2012 comparison for two reasons in my estimation:  one, early snow followed by months of unrelenting poorer winter performance might bear some resemblance as a step back character ( granted..), but the other reason is hand throwing tantrum frustration.  Unfortunately, ..heh heh, neither would hold up very well to a Chi-test frankly... can't be used.  Coincidences and sore-butting don't offer much deterministic value to weather prediction.  

Tongue-in-cheek aside...   Monday probably nicks 70 over parking lots in metro west and Springfield/HFD ... with 67 at Logan with it's new cold bias we've cleverly inherited ( thank god they sent a technician to fix that!) ... but that's typical before a blue bomb ... In a "holistic" sense, having the GEFs digging at 180 hours is a April 97 mockery but I think is okay actually as at a glance. 

Nah. I read it and approved. I’m in your camp. We’ll see.

[Cold Miser]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize my post is being ignored out of anguish and disenchanted flopping ... haha, but I do honestly think that 11th-13th has a blue bonnet look to it. 

We'll see..

And I don't have any contention going warmish overall for March ...there's like three pillars of evidence to support that thinking:  

-- seasonal persistence

-- "CC" or a gestaltic relationship to that ... so not outright "because of that" but ...synergistically favored

-- modeling and teleconnectors ... 

But that last point is tricky.  March ...into the first half of April for that matter, have a fickle variability because that last factor tends to entropy ... Neither performs terribly well in transition season, simply put. And part of the performance is the shortening wave-lengths, and the good point you make regarding the cold in Canada - I mentioned that myself - may help this year.  2012 did not have that mass loading up there. Not that I recall. It was a freak hemisphere that year.  It's just simply not modeled that way.  People want to make the 2012 comparison for two reasons in my estimation:  one, early snow followed by months of unrelenting poorer winter performance might bear some resemblance as a step back character ( granted..), but the other reason is hand throwing tantrum frustration.  Unfortunately, ..heh heh, neither would hold up very well to a Chi-test frankly... can't be used.  Coincidences and sore-butting don't offer much deterministic value to weather prediction.  

Tongue-in-cheek aside...   Monday probably nicks 70 over parking lots in metro west and Springfield/HFD ... with 67 at Logan with it's new cold bias we've cleverly inherited ( thank god they sent a technician to fix that!) ... but that's typical before a blue bomb ... In a "holistic" sense, having the GEFs digging at 180 hours is a April 97 mockery but I think is okay actually as at a glance. 

Not sure if that's the only reason.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I totally agree that there certainly is still some decent cold bottled up there in southeast Canada with some cold 850's, however, it's been that way through much of the winter. I'm not really using persistence at all with my thoughts or forecast...(well perhaps that's a lie) but in order for us I think to utilize that we're going to need to see some drastic pattern change...something much more than just a "relaxation" in the flow. Also, that cold can easily be eroded in the coming weeks. I guess you can argue that by saying this warm look can easily erode too but IMO everything points/signals towards the warmth dominating and by everything I mean global teleconnections. I know they begin to lose their correlation as we move into spring, but at least through the end of model guidance some of those signals remain strong and continue to drive the hemispheric configuration. 

that'a curious statement, bold abv... as "climate suggesting patter relaxation" may qualify - that's really the point I'm making this morning. 

Again, modeled this and teleconnector that tend toward increasing "entropy" at this time of year - in other words, disorder.  And that's code for being less dependable and well duh, transition seasons tend to see enhanced stochastic model performance - that's why.  

I disagree that we need 'something much more' than relaxation in the flow - nah bro...  These things are sensitive beneath the specter of the larger moving parts, and it doesn't take much 850 mb insert of cold into an on-going dynamic system and shocking huge sensible weather difference result from relatively small inputs all the time.   A progressive bowling ball with a well time plume... 62 32 54 62 colorado special, no problem. 

[moneypitmike]

I'll say this much......if one can put aside the fact that the winter sucked and accept that there's no reason to think it won't end as sucky, it's very possible to head outside and recognize that March sun on a mild airmass makes for some nice weather.

Enjoy.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Not sure if that's the only reason.

Right - when writing for court-yard rabble, there's going to be unreachable dissension - agreed. 

[MJO812]

Nice norlun for inland pa

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that'a curious statement, bold abv... as "climate suggesting patter relaxation" may qualify - that's really the point I'm making this morning. 

Again, modeled this and teleconnector that tend toward increasing "entropy" at this time of year - in other words, disorder.  And that's code for being less dependable and well duh, transition seasons tend to see enhanced stochastic model performance - that's why.  

I disagree that we need 'something much more' than relaxation in the flow - nah bro...  These things are sensitive beneath the specter of the larger moving parts, and it doesn't take much 850 mb insert of cold into an on-going dynamic system and shocking huge sensible weather difference result from relatively small inputs all the time.   A progressive bowling ball with a well time plume... 62 32 54 62 colorado special, no problem. 

Yeah just look at '97....that was a blue bomb (albeit historic and extreme) surrounded by 60F tshirt weather....there wasn't anything large scale in the hemispheric long wave pattern that drove that to happen like, say, April 1982 when we were in the midst of a "February in April" type pattern with  -10 to -15C sitting over us on the eve of the event with the entire northenr half of the CONUS well below 0C at 850.

In '97 I was hitting golf balls at the driving range the day before in short sleeves and even overheard a couple dudes laughing about the 6-10" forecast for the next day not believing it....they were right to be skeptical, just in the wrong direction, haha. But as you said....perfectly timed bowling ball that went nuts.

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that'a curious statement, bold abv... as "climate suggesting patter relaxation" may qualify - that's really the point I'm making this morning. 

Again, modeled this and teleconnector that tend toward increasing "entropy" at this time of year - in other words, disorder.  And that's code for being less dependable and well duh, transition seasons tend to see enhanced stochastic model performance - that's why.  

I disagree that we need 'something much more' than relaxation in the flow - nah bro...  These things are sensitive beneath the specter of the larger moving parts, and it doesn't take much 850 mb insert of cold into an on-going dynamic system and shocking huge sensible weather difference result from relatively small inputs all the time.   A progressive bowling ball with a well time plume... 62 32 54 62 colorado special, no problem. 

I can't disagree that a pattern relaxation may qualify (though I am arguing that in this instance) as historically sometimes that all you need...is a relaxation in the pattern. IMO, there is just so much going against us that even in a relaxation it isn't enough to yield significant potential. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah just look at '97....that was a blue bomb (albeit historic and extreme) surrounded by 60F tshirt weather....there wasn't anything large scale in the hemispheric long wave pattern that drove that to happen like, say, April 1982 when we were in the midst of a "February in April" type pattern with  -10 to -15C sitting over us on the eve of the event with the entire northenr half of the CONUS well below 0C at 850.

In '97 I was hitting golf balls at the driving range the day before in short sleeves and even overheard a couple dudes laughing about the 6-10" forecast for the next day not believing it....they were right to be skeptical, just in the wrong direction, haha. But as you said....perfectly timed bowling ball that went nuts.

That's exactly what it's going to take..something extremely well and perfectly timed and obviously there is really no way to know that in advance...I suppose there could be some signals in the medium/long range (very similar to what Tip was pointing out. but if it were to happen...I think it's something that gets picked up on 2-3 days out...not something we're tracking 7-10 days out. 

[CoastalWx]

There might be that small window after day 7. Kind of a grinder overrunning look perhaps with some Hudson Bay ridging. That is the time where models were trying to show something as well. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That's exactly what it's going to take..something extremely well and perfectly timed and obviously there is really no way to know that in advance...I suppose there could be some signals in the medium/long range (very similar to what Tip was pointing out. but if it were to happen...I think it's something that gets picked up on 2-3 days out...not something we're tracking 7-10 days out. 

3/12 on the Euro is a good example of well-timed....there's a brief cold sot behind the 3/10-11 system and another shortwave on its heels runs into that cold....I doubt it stays that way on guidance, but there is nothing inherently wrong with the solution...it's just that it's kind of a tedious setup so it's likely to mess up somewhere.

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nah. I read it and approved. I’m in your camp. We’ll see.

Yeah ...'was only bustin' ...