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March 2020 disc/obs


Torch Tiger
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  On 3/3/2020 at 3:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Climate change is definitely happening, but I'd never attribute a winter like this to it....ok, maybe a small percentage (I dunno, 10%?).....the rest is year to year variance. It dwarfs the CC signal....that is empirically not arguable.

I'm not talking butterfly effect either...using that, you can attribute climate change to any event you want, because technically everything is "connected"....you can do the same for someone passing gas in their basement.

 

I'm speaking solely "net effect".....CC may have caused a torch, but it also may have caused the 27" blizzard in March 2018.....the net effect is what matters.

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I don't think you can ever truly connect climate change to a single weather event, however, what you can do is make connections of climate change to the atmospheric pattern configuration...or something along those lines. For example, if the PJ averaged more north this winter and that has been a theme more often than that over the past several years compared to the longer-term mean you can make an argument (based on ideas of how a warmer climate would argue for this) that is a relation to climate change along with other factors which may have helped (ENSO, QBO, etc).

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Anyway, there are two things ( imho ) that need to happen to bring this threat back more so:

-- the wave coming off the Pac needs to get stronger like it was three days ago in the Euro; it's been weakening in all guidance cycles slowly ever since.

-- the ridge on it's heels needs to pop higher in latitude, such that it would get a constructive interference from the larger --> short wave length scales, and help carve things out...tipping the flow more S-N along /off the EC and that would change things storm-favorable. 

I see the first of these two as being more plausible than the latter... The reason being, it's more likely that smaller scaled stream mechanics associated with a S/W will be missed, before the integration of the large scale ... where any such errors tend to get absorbed into the mean; of which the ridge amplitude in the west is constructed.  Also, I'm noticing the ridge has 50 to 70 kt winds curving/arcing over it's top in southern Manitoba - I hate to say, that's a speed anomaly for that flow construct and is probably having an neggie interference in the transitive sense. It's ablating the ridge from getting N, which then transitively effects the digging potential down stream...  Then, if the weaker polar stream Pac ejection really remains sort of middling ... case close.  It's not over all optimistic, no, just not impossible. 

90% sure of a system evolving... very low confidence it will be in time for us - but reserve the right to change my mind should we start seeing the above two concerns accommodate.  

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  On 3/3/2020 at 3:24 PM, weatherwiz said:

I don't think you can ever truly connect climate change to a single weather event, however, what you can do is make connections of climate change to the atmospheric pattern configuration...or something along those lines. For example, if the PJ averaged more north this winter and that has been a theme more often than that over the past several years compared to the longer-term mean you can make an argument (based on ideas of how a warmer climate would argue for this) that is a relation to climate change along with other factors which may have helped (ENSO, QBO, etc).

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Right, it's about "net effect"....so on average, what do we see? We see warmer heat waves. We see "less cold" cold snaps. Heavier precip? (at least on the east coast)

The PJ has in the mean retreated slightly north, but not evenly....where we are it hasn't retreated much....mostly due to the the amplified trend over the EPO regions....that has a downstream effect. so if CC is making the heights rise faster over the EPO region....it will mean that on average, heights might not rise much downstream of that over central North America and into our area.

There have been papers that argued we will see a lot more "blocky" winters due to reduced sea ice....those have been challenged somewhat...and I suspect with the lack of blocking recently, they will be challenged more.

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  On 3/3/2020 at 3:27 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Right, it's about "net effect"....so on average, what do we see? We see warmer heat waves. We see "less cold" cold snaps. Heavier precip? (at least on the east coast)

The PJ has in the mean retreated slightly north, but not evenly....where we are it hasn't retreated much....mostly due to the the amplified trend over the EPO regions....that has a downstream effect. so if CC is making the heights rise faster over the EPO region....it will mean that on average, heights might not rise much downstream of that over central North America and into our area.

There have been papers that argued we will see a lot more "blocky" winters due to reduced sea ice....those have been challenged somewhat...and I suspect with the lack of blocking recently, they will be challenged more.

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Could it “tend” to  initiate faster flow ...asking seriously 

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  On 3/3/2020 at 3:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

You're angry ..so you didn't read objectively - 

that is not what I said...  "climate change shit is trying to move Philly to our doorstep faster than most admit ."  is an opine and not a statement of claim to a 'new norm'.. 

If other Mets violently disagree with climate change, they should be stripped of their credentials.  

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I find more concerning, the  thought how far west the sea breeze might reach in the decades to come. As always .....

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  On 3/3/2020 at 3:27 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Right, it's about "net effect"....so on average, what do we see? We see warmer heat waves. We see "less cold" cold snaps. Heavier precip? (at least on the east coast)

The PJ has in the mean retreated slightly north, but not evenly....where we are it hasn't retreated much....mostly due to the the amplified trend over the EPO regions....that has a downstream effect. so if CC is making the heights rise faster over the EPO region....it will mean that on average, heights might not rise much downstream of that over central North America and into our area.

There have been papers that argued we will see a lot more "blocky" winters due to reduced sea ice....those have been challenged somewhat...and I suspect with the lack of blocking recently, they will be challenged more.

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The connections to blocking (or a lack of) have been interesting. I've read a little bit about this and the arguments I think from both sides make some interesting points. From what I gather it seems like blocking may become less frequent, however, when we do see blocking it could be pretty impressive. 

The deviations to the PJ I think are most interesting and it really makes a great deal of sense how it would retreat farther north more towards the EPO region. The connection with the Hadley Cell/Walker cell is another very interesting tidbit...not sure how extensive the research is into this but it's something I certainly want to explore more b/c this could have significant implications on the transition seasons. 

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  On 3/3/2020 at 3:36 PM, weatherwiz said:

The connections to blocking (or a lack of) have been interesting. I've read a little bit about this and the arguments I think from both sides make some interesting points. From what I gather it seems like blocking may become less frequent, however, when we do see blocking it could be pretty impressive. 

The deviations to the PJ I think are most interesting and it really makes a great deal of sense how it would retreat farther north more towards the EPO region. The connection with the Hadley Cell/Walker cell is another very interesting tidbit...not sure how extensive the research is into this but it's something I certainly want to explore more b/c this could have significant implications on the transition seasons. 

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As I was seriously asking earlier ...could it initiate faster flow to tend to become more the norm

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  On 3/3/2020 at 3:40 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

As I was seriously asking earlier ...could it initiate faster flow to tend to become more the norm

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I would think it would actually yield the opposite...a slower flow. Just basing that on the idea that the Arctic region seems to be warming fastest so that would result in a reduced temperature gradient between the Pole and Arctic. But this could be totally wrong...especially given we have seen some crazy fast ULJ recently. While temperature gradient is a driver in the jet there are other factors too and perhaps they hold as much weight as temperature gradient alone. 

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  On 3/3/2020 at 2:59 PM, 512high said:

Interesting, but where you say philly climate to our doorstep...temporary? For when next Winter arrives back to some what normalcy and hopefully no more fast flow shit where something can at least phase into something, i wonder what our summer will beike after this shit show.

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i know TT didn't say this, and i don't think he meant it, but i highly doubt you will see a Philly climate in Nashua in your lifetime.

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  On 3/3/2020 at 4:19 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I was reading this could be a bad 'bug year' in general... The lack of antecedent significant cryo- events isn't good.  

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Yeah, worrying about life-threatening illnesses from insects is one of those things that ends up simmering in the back of your mind when you live in rural areas or enjoy time in nature.

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  On 3/3/2020 at 4:24 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

If we have Philly climo now , then your area is Roanoke

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The winter down here has definitely been more equivalent to a Roanoke winter lol. I blame the mjo, pac, and Pv for this disaster. 
 

We were way overdue for a winter like this down here. This will go a long way with metfan and keeping his expectations grounded. Ha

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