weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: Climate change is definitely happening, but I'd never attribute a winter like this to it....ok, maybe a small percentage (I dunno, 10%?).....the rest is year to year variance. It dwarfs the CC signal....that is empirically not arguable. I'm not talking butterfly effect either...using that, you can attribute climate change to any event you want, because technically everything is "connected"....you can do the same for someone passing gas in their basement. I'm speaking solely "net effect".....CC may have caused a torch, but it also may have caused the 27" blizzard in March 2018.....the net effect is what matters. Expand I don't think you can ever truly connect climate change to a single weather event, however, what you can do is make connections of climate change to the atmospheric pattern configuration...or something along those lines. For example, if the PJ averaged more north this winter and that has been a theme more often than that over the past several years compared to the longer-term mean you can make an argument (based on ideas of how a warmer climate would argue for this) that is a relation to climate change along with other factors which may have helped (ENSO, QBO, etc). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Anyway, there are two things ( imho ) that need to happen to bring this threat back more so: -- the wave coming off the Pac needs to get stronger like it was three days ago in the Euro; it's been weakening in all guidance cycles slowly ever since. -- the ridge on it's heels needs to pop higher in latitude, such that it would get a constructive interference from the larger --> short wave length scales, and help carve things out...tipping the flow more S-N along /off the EC and that would change things storm-favorable. I see the first of these two as being more plausible than the latter... The reason being, it's more likely that smaller scaled stream mechanics associated with a S/W will be missed, before the integration of the large scale ... where any such errors tend to get absorbed into the mean; of which the ridge amplitude in the west is constructed. Also, I'm noticing the ridge has 50 to 70 kt winds curving/arcing over it's top in southern Manitoba - I hate to say, that's a speed anomaly for that flow construct and is probably having an neggie interference in the transitive sense. It's ablating the ridge from getting N, which then transitively effects the digging potential down stream... Then, if the weaker polar stream Pac ejection really remains sort of middling ... case close. It's not over all optimistic, no, just not impossible. 90% sure of a system evolving... very low confidence it will be in time for us - but reserve the right to change my mind should we start seeing the above two concerns accommodate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:24 PM, weatherwiz said: I don't think you can ever truly connect climate change to a single weather event, however, what you can do is make connections of climate change to the atmospheric pattern configuration...or something along those lines. For example, if the PJ averaged more north this winter and that has been a theme more often than that over the past several years compared to the longer-term mean you can make an argument (based on ideas of how a warmer climate would argue for this) that is a relation to climate change along with other factors which may have helped (ENSO, QBO, etc). Expand Right, it's about "net effect"....so on average, what do we see? We see warmer heat waves. We see "less cold" cold snaps. Heavier precip? (at least on the east coast) The PJ has in the mean retreated slightly north, but not evenly....where we are it hasn't retreated much....mostly due to the the amplified trend over the EPO regions....that has a downstream effect. so if CC is making the heights rise faster over the EPO region....it will mean that on average, heights might not rise much downstream of that over central North America and into our area. There have been papers that argued we will see a lot more "blocky" winters due to reduced sea ice....those have been challenged somewhat...and I suspect with the lack of blocking recently, they will be challenged more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:24 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: lol not angry just thought the statement was asinine and way too general and broad to have the D.Bag aura of “study that and get back to me on that S.A.T “ question maybe Harv can chime In Expand You're too sensi man ... d-bag..? whatever brah, it was sarcasm... get a grip, yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Got dang rabbit hole...can’t find our way out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:27 PM, ORH_wxman said: Right, it's about "net effect"....so on average, what do we see? We see warmer heat waves. We see "less cold" cold snaps. Heavier precip? (at least on the east coast) The PJ has in the mean retreated slightly north, but not evenly....where we are it hasn't retreated much....mostly due to the the amplified trend over the EPO regions....that has a downstream effect. so if CC is making the heights rise faster over the EPO region....it will mean that on average, heights might not rise much downstream of that over central North America and into our area. There have been papers that argued we will see a lot more "blocky" winters due to reduced sea ice....those have been challenged somewhat...and I suspect with the lack of blocking recently, they will be challenged more. Expand Could it “tend” to initiate faster flow ...asking seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said: You're angry ..so you didn't read objectively - that is not what I said... "climate change shit is trying to move Philly to our doorstep faster than most admit ." is an opine and not a statement of claim to a 'new norm'.. If other Mets violently disagree with climate change, they should be stripped of their credentials. Expand I find more concerning, the thought how far west the sea breeze might reach in the decades to come. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:29 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Got dang rabbit hole...can’t find our way out. Expand Yeah I'm done discussing CC for now....back to the "threat". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:27 PM, ORH_wxman said: Right, it's about "net effect"....so on average, what do we see? We see warmer heat waves. We see "less cold" cold snaps. Heavier precip? (at least on the east coast) The PJ has in the mean retreated slightly north, but not evenly....where we are it hasn't retreated much....mostly due to the the amplified trend over the EPO regions....that has a downstream effect. so if CC is making the heights rise faster over the EPO region....it will mean that on average, heights might not rise much downstream of that over central North America and into our area. There have been papers that argued we will see a lot more "blocky" winters due to reduced sea ice....those have been challenged somewhat...and I suspect with the lack of blocking recently, they will be challenged more. Expand The connections to blocking (or a lack of) have been interesting. I've read a little bit about this and the arguments I think from both sides make some interesting points. From what I gather it seems like blocking may become less frequent, however, when we do see blocking it could be pretty impressive. The deviations to the PJ I think are most interesting and it really makes a great deal of sense how it would retreat farther north more towards the EPO region. The connection with the Hadley Cell/Walker cell is another very interesting tidbit...not sure how extensive the research is into this but it's something I certainly want to explore more b/c this could have significant implications on the transition seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 51f. definitely gonna bust high on the frcst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Every bird and squirrel seems to be moving around and or chirping this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:33 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm done discussing CC for now....back to the "threat". Expand I’m in your camp btw but I know this is a conversation that takes on a life of it’s own. Back to Inverted weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:36 PM, weatherwiz said: The connections to blocking (or a lack of) have been interesting. I've read a little bit about this and the arguments I think from both sides make some interesting points. From what I gather it seems like blocking may become less frequent, however, when we do see blocking it could be pretty impressive. The deviations to the PJ I think are most interesting and it really makes a great deal of sense how it would retreat farther north more towards the EPO region. The connection with the Hadley Cell/Walker cell is another very interesting tidbit...not sure how extensive the research is into this but it's something I certainly want to explore more b/c this could have significant implications on the transition seasons. Expand As I was seriously asking earlier ...could it initiate faster flow to tend to become more the norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Icon actually clips cape area with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 3:40 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: As I was seriously asking earlier ...could it initiate faster flow to tend to become more the norm Expand I would think it would actually yield the opposite...a slower flow. Just basing that on the idea that the Arctic region seems to be warming fastest so that would result in a reduced temperature gradient between the Pole and Arctic. But this could be totally wrong...especially given we have seen some crazy fast ULJ recently. While temperature gradient is a driver in the jet there are other factors too and perhaps they hold as much weight as temperature gradient alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Where’s DIT? Time to break out this video... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 3, 2020 Author Share Posted March 3, 2020 After the flurries, the weekend looks nice. Maybe 50's again next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Inverted trough this weekend ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Welp, got our first ticks today so at least we have that to enjoy if we can’t have snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 4:07 PM, MJO812 said: Inverted trough this weekend ? Expand Like a norlun trough? Where does it show the inverted trough going through. Does it come through the Hartford CT area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 2:59 PM, 512high said: Interesting, but where you say philly climate to our doorstep...temporary? For when next Winter arrives back to some what normalcy and hopefully no more fast flow shit where something can at least phase into something, i wonder what our summer will beike after this shit show. Expand i know TT didn't say this, and i don't think he meant it, but i highly doubt you will see a Philly climate in Nashua in your lifetime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 4:15 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Welp, got our first ticks today so at least we have that to enjoy if we can’t have snow! Expand I was reading this could be a bad 'bug year' in general... The lack of antecedent significant cryo- events isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 4:15 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Welp, got our first ticks today so at least we have that to enjoy if we can’t have snow! Expand The sicko in me first thought you meant a favorable tick nw in the storm this weekend. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 4:07 PM, MJO812 said: Inverted trough this weekend ? Expand Looks like norlun rains for us metfan in the tropics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 4:19 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I was reading this could be a bad 'bug year' in general... The lack of antecedent significant cryo- events isn't good. Expand Yeah, worrying about life-threatening illnesses from insects is one of those things that ends up simmering in the back of your mind when you live in rural areas or enjoy time in nature. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 4:21 PM, Allsnow said: Looks like norlun rains for us metfan in the tropics. Expand If we have Philly climo now , then your area is Roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 4:24 PM, SouthCoastMA said: If we have Philly climo now , then your area is Roanoke Expand The winter down here has definitely been more equivalent to a Roanoke winter lol. I blame the mjo, pac, and Pv for this disaster. We were way overdue for a winter like this down here. This will go a long way with metfan and keeping his expectations grounded. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 CMC actually looks north of 00z through 60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 4:21 PM, Allsnow said: Looks like norlun rains for us metfan in the tropics. Expand Not so sure about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Cmc is actually west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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