Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I’ll post the rest of the idv when they come out 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 def a step back. Not the trend we want to see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: Gotta go with a big member these days... Definitely what she said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: As Richard Pryor said...”well fuk it then!” Yup, It's the Tenor of the season....something always screw's the pooch. That's what True Ratters do...they never let anything really happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Must be a few members near Bermuda... lots of spread west there 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: def a step back. Not the trend we want to see Good because we have seen storms bust when they showed nice hits close to an event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: def a step back. Not the trend we want to see I am not sure I would call that a step back IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: def a step back. Not the trend we want to see Not a huge jump though so we wait, we watch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: I am not sure I would call that a step back IMO. not sure what the individuals looked like at 0z or even 6z, but there were some good looking "snow weenie" numbers on that 12z run for SNE....Better than this entire year, so who knows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 breaking down those individuals... I see 12/50 (~25%) that would be Significant events... and about another half dozen or so that would be moderate... with another half dozen to 7 or 8 or so that are very close to one of those two categories. So basically about 50% chance of a decent event based on those members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’ll post the rest of the idv when they come out 10 and 5 only two that I like. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: breaking down those individuals... I see 12/50 (~25%) that would be Significant events... and about another half dozen or so that would be moderate... with another half dozen to 7 or 8 or so that are very close to one of those two categories. So basically about 50% chance of a decent event based on those members I was doing the same thing. My gut says whiff but there are enough impactful members there for me to keep tracking non-emotionally, yet obsessively. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Northern stream digs more this run, but the ridge to the west rolls over the top and affects the ability to phase the southern stream....the downstream ridging ahead of the system is blunted because of that. We get spacing issues. Uncanny ability of this season to engineer bare ground. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 2, 2020 Author Share Posted March 2, 2020 Beautiful day today btw, hiked blue hill and was 54 with lots of sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 39 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Do you have a perspective that shows us what is to the right of the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Do you have a perspective that shows us what is to the right of the mean? More ocean? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: More ocean? Go Kart Mozart just wants to check out the weather chart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: More ocean? Unfortunately we have plenty of ocean to the left of the mean, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said: Go Kart Mozart just wants to check out the weather chart To see if its safe outside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I was doing the same thing. My gut says whiff but there are enough impactful members there for me to keep tracking non-emotionally, yet obsessively. Well you, Tblizz, Scott etc have the best shot as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Unfortunately we have plenty of ocean to the left of the mean, too. And there lies the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I think we need to see improvements tonight, or its over. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we need to see improvements tonight, or its over. 12z Tuesday is when I either check in or check out on this one. A little bit better sampling by then and we can see more clearly the intentions of the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we need to see improvements tonight, or its over. Too early 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 NAM at 84 looks pretty good... but so did all the other guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM at 84 looks pretty good... but so did all the other guidance I’d rather see improvements like this prior to it reaching the BM so baby steps at d4.5 is good enough, for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Too early Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I think we need to at least hold serve tonight....if it trends notably worse, I'm not sure it's going to come back. We're in the 96 hour timeframe tonight. NAM is definitely teeing it up at 84 hours...more than other guidance. But it's the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 10 and 5 only two that I like. 36? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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