USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Why does everyone think this system will be different then the rest of the systems this winter season? A progressive pattern stays that way until it finally fully breaks down. The breakdown doesn't occur before this system does, so why the change? Why do we expect different results with the same pattern? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ain't happening guys, let's just welcome Spring. Now we know this storm will happen because everything you say usually the opposite happens. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why does everyone think this system will be different then the rest of the systems this winter season? A progressive pattern stays that way until it finally fully breaks down. The breakdown doesn't occur before this system does, so why the change? Why do we expect different results with the same pattern? How many cutters have we had this year? I'm pretty sure I had an inch of rain under a week ago. You can still get snowstorms in progressive patterns. Just don't expect anything long duration. And sometimes you get breaks in the progressiveness that allows for something more substantial...just like how we get thaws and cutters even in epic seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 I think everyone is still in don’t do it mode. Although secretly I am saying please let it happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: You guys might be better off without the first low. It would be similar to 2015 and 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 If anyone has any question ...the reason the GFS isn't annihilating the upper MA up through eastern NE is purely a function of bi-passed phasing ...more probably owing to it's progressive bias. But, does have some merit based upon two prognostic philosophies: 1 ... speed contamination is verifying all season and appears to also at minimum be vestigial in this and prior runs. Trend is a checklist item 2 ... the other guidance' are also showing slip partiality with the capture slow down scenario. The 00z Euro was the most proficient run to date, but the 12z ( pun intended ) slipped toward less by a small measure, but enough to limit the event to some sort of dubious looking Norlun with the unusual circumstance of having a closed low embedded inside - that's not likely and probably means the solution's in flux.. This run 18z run is ...well, the 18z run of the GFS for one so axe-head that, but it simply outpaces the northern stream and slips the southern stream and it's associated surface wave partially passed, such that by the time the subsume really takes place the flow is stretched and the capture is way east. Meanwhile, the ridge axis being over the Dakotas during those shenanigans is a red flag that the whole baggage is indeed too stretched and likely to pan west . I'm also noticing there is a tendency across the board to pull the surface pressure contours west in ensemble means some, that usually means there some contention on the western side of the envelope pull the track cluster/mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why does everyone think this system will be different then the rest of the systems this winter season? A progressive pattern stays that way until it finally fully breaks down. The breakdown doesn't occur before this system does, so why the change? Why do we expect different results with the same pattern? Because the first order of intelligentsia to Meteorologists and informed hobbyists that want to be taken seriously ... is to look at ever situation uniquely. Trend is important, but it doesn't dictate the script - 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If anyone has any question ...the reason the GFS isn't annihilating the upper MA up through eastern NE is purely a function of bi-passed phasing ...more probably owing to it's progressive bias. But, does have some merit based upon two prognostic philosophies: 1 ... speed contamination is verifying all season and appears to also at minimum be vestigial in this and prior runs. Trend is a checklist item 2 ... the other guidance' are also showing slip partiality with the capture slow down scenario. The 00z Euro was the most proficient run to date, but the 12z ( pun intended ) slipped toward less by a small measure, but enough to limit the event to some sort of dubious looking Norlun with the unusual circumstance of having a closed low embedded inside - that's not likely and probably means the solution's in flux.. This run 18z run is ...well, the 18z run of the GFS for one so axe-head that, but it simply outpaces the northern stream and slips the southern stream and it's associated surface wave partially passed, such that by the time the subsume really takes place the flow is stretched and the capture is way east. Meanwhile, the ridge axis being over the Dakotas during those shenanigans is a red flag that the whole baggage is indeed too stretched and likely to pan west . I'm also noticing there is a tendency across the board to pull the surface pressure contours west in ensemble means some, that usually means there some contention on the western side of the envelope pull the track cluster/mean. John, the 12z euro OP trended away, but the ens mean is what is paramount at this range and that hedged more phased.. albeit still split. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John, the 12z euro OP trended away, but the ens mean is what is paramount at this range and that hedged more phased.. albeit still split. Yeah ... I was just helpin' the operational interpretation - word My opinion hasn't deviate from this morning actually ... the ensemble mean of the EPS is buffer there. Also, some individual GEF members approached extreme scenarios, while the mean only vaguely deviated - if another couple members add to that, we'll see that shift begin there too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Gefs is further west and now shows a norlun into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 31 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why does everyone think this system will be different then the rest of the systems this winter season? A progressive pattern stays that way until it finally fully breaks down. The breakdown doesn't occur before this system does, so why the change? Why do we expect different results with the same pattern? I like optimistic James better than the pessimistic version. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I like optimistic James better than the pessimistic version. Better results when he’s negative. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is further west and now shows a norlun into SNE. What exactly is a Norlun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Pluffmud said: What exactly is a Norlun? https://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: https://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html lol, you beat me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: https://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, Pluffmud said: Thank you! Too be specific a NORLUN trough is something you should never set your hopes on to bring you accumulating snow in New England. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Too be specific a NORLUN trough is something you should never set your hopes on to bring you accumulating snow in New England. It’s usually an interim solution too though. We’ll typically see a norlun depicted as a storm trends from OTS to a hit and vice versa. Here, trend is our friend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Too be specific a NORLUN trough is something you should never set your hopes on to bring you accumulating snow in New England. The ultimate Fraud Five 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Yea, norluns and inverted troughs are usually provisional solutions as guidance attempts to reconcile current solutions with future commitments one way or another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Thanks on all the info on Norluns. Very interesting! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, norluns and inverted troughs are usually provisional solutions as guidance attempts to reconcile current solutions with future commitments one way or another. Yeah you can kind of think of norluns and IVTs as “knife’s edge” solutions. You rarely actually land on a knife’s edge so that’s why they don’t verify that often but we frequently see them on guidance as a trend passes through the knife’s edge solution on the way to a real solution whether it’s a whiff or a hit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, norluns and inverted troughs are usually provisional solutions as guidance attempts to reconcile current solutions with future commitments one way or another. It's all empirical, but it seems like the med/long range inverted troughs do tend to verify as a more tucked in closed low whereas the actual inverted troughs start to spring up in the short range. Will would recall better than me, but how many of our inverted troughs have been modeled out for 5-6 days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's all empirical, but it seems like the med/long range inverted troughs do tend to verify as a more tucked in closed low whereas the actual inverted troughs start to spring up in the short range. Will would recall better than me, but how many of our inverted troughs have been modeled out for 5-6 days? Yeah I’d agree. It fits in a bit with my post above. We typically see them as transitional solutions on the way to a real storm or a whiff. Our inverted troughs that actually verify usually don’t show up until inside 3 days. Agreed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Alot of nice members on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I think everyone is still in don’t do it mode. Although secretly I am saying please let it happen. Pad those stats! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Pad those stats! I only need another 10 inches or so for normal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I'm in on this one when @dryslot is in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Alot of nice members on the gefs I only see 4 at first glance. Most are clustered around the mean, outside the BM. You have them handy? Gefs have been jumpy this year with storms though so I’m not putting too much stock in them anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: I only need another 10 inches or so for normal snow. Ya' I need a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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