40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:06 PM, weathafella said: They’re not near Bermuda but they are east of the mean. It is actually possible to phase but too late for land interaction. Expand Many of those are near Bermuda. A later phase would result in the stronger solution being delayed northeast, not a track well southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Many of those are near Bermuda. A later phase would result in the stronger solution being delayed northeast, not a track well southeast. Expand I like the H5 look. Perhaps the southern stream starts moving OTS, but with some phasing, that all gets pulled back toward land. With that H5 look, it’s being pulled back to an more optimal location. Still a ways out, but I’m cautiously optimistic. I understand anyone’s pessimism rn too though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:11 PM, NorEastermass128 said: I like the H5 look. Perhaps the southern stream starts moving OTS, but with some phasing, that all gets pulled back toward land. With that H5 look, it’s being pulled back to an more optimal location. Still a ways out, but I’m cautiously optimistic. I understand anyone’s pessimism rn too though. Expand I want the s stream insert...not much margin for error if we rely on all n stream. I think the 12z EPS is explosive and screams big event. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Many of those are near Bermuda. A later phase would result in the stronger solution being delayed northeast, not a track well southeast. Expand I think I discard 4-5 and consider the other eastern solutions possible and seen often enough in phased storms that just miss over the years. That said....I think this one delivers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:17 PM, weathafella said: I think I discard 4-5 and consider the other eastern solutions possible and seen often enough in phased storms that just miss over the years. That said....I think this one delivers Expand That is fair. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 My daughter’s last class ends 3pm Friday. I told her I want to leave right at 3 to beat a potential storm with a 3.5 hour drive. There I jinxed it... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 1, 2020 Author Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, absolutely. But refresh my memory of the point in March 2012 when we entertained the notion of a KU magnitude event for even a portion of the region... Expand anyone seriously entertaining that notion at 5 day lead is entertaining this notion first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:42 PM, Dr. Dews said: anyone seriously entertaining that notion at 5 day lead is entertaining this notion first Expand I think its time to seriously consider a significant snowfall. Not a blizzard, but that is a viable possibility. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 1, 2020 Author Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think its time to seriously consider a significant snowfall. Not a blizzard, but that is a viable possibility. Expand I'm on board to an extent, but any ku talk is just hype at this point. Which is fun but not to be taken serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:50 PM, Dr. Dews said: I'm on board to an extent, but any ku talk is just hype at this point. Which is fun but not to be taken serious Expand Agreed. No one would seriously consider the possibility of a KU until we’re within 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:50 PM, Dr. Dews said: I'm on board to an extent, but any ku talk is just hype at this point. Which is fun but not to be taken serious Expand I mentioned that getting a KU in December, which a portion of the area did, is a good sign that winter will reemerge before season's end. Not that it guarantees another KU...although I won't be surprised if that happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Not sure if there is enough of a sample size yet, but dare I say KBOS has looked reasonable the last two days. I wonder if an adjustment was done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 9:16 PM, CoastalWx said: Not sure if there is enough of a sample size yet, but dare I say KBOS has looked reasonable the last two days. I wonder if an adjustment was done? Expand I noticed that today. I was surprised when I peeked earlier and they weren’t 7F warmer than ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 One thing for certain is that this is the last threat we track in standard time. Everything is an hour later starting Sunday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 9:21 PM, ORH_wxman said: I noticed that today. I was surprised when I peeked earlier and they weren’t 7F warmer than ORH. Expand From a Fisher tweet back to me ”Last convo I had with NWS they were going to do a day/night and wind direction analysis to see when it seems to be biasing most” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 My low was 18, logan 19. I can’t even tell you the last time I was within 1F from them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Icon well ots 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Probably the worst icon run yet. Southern stream just drifts basically East from Florida 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Gfs is digging more so far through 87 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Why is that model used? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 9:56 PM, CoastalWx said: Why is that model used? Expand Kills time? I seldom look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 9:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kills time? I seldom look. Expand Rarely ever look at it. About as much attn as the NAVGEM gets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 GFS should improve at least a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Nrn stream really digging as the low hugs NC coastline. Should be better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 GFS really trending this run. Regardless of verbatim outcome it’s good to see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Yeah that was a good shift. What a beast of a low well offshore. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Don’t do it. 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Ain't happening guys, let's just welcome Spring. 2 1 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 10:11 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah that was a good shift. What a beast of a low well offshore. Expand Yup... needs more work. Good to see a somewhat better solution though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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