ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:48 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing we can do. Miller B’s just aren’t our thing. Once in a while the N stream drops in earlier like Feb 13 but usually its a Jan 05 or Jan 15 type of evolution. Expand There’s actually some similarities with Feb 2013 where the northern stream insert is trying to catch that southern wave lingering in the SE US. The problem right now for further west areas is it’s not capturing it quite as soon as Feb ‘13. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:48 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing we can do. Miller B’s just aren’t our thing. Once in a while the N stream drops in earlier like Feb 13 but usually its a Jan 05 or Jan 15 type of evolution. Expand It’s very early to really commit. It wouldn’t take much for that to hug much tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 It’s not impossible this ends up a PF special. Keep that in back pocket in case 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:52 PM, CoastalWx said: It’s very early to really commit. It wouldn’t take much for that to hug much tighter. Expand It wouldn’t and I agree it’s early to make such assumptions. I’m simply hedging given the flow. If we had a traffic jam in the maritimes, different story. This one seems very timing dependent, which can go either direction...I suppose that’s your point. Gotchya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Lol...euro/cmc vs icon/gfs. Kind of like when a team disbands and half the roster goes to the Yankees while the other half goes to the Royals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: There’s actually some similarities with Feb 2013 where the northern stream insert is trying to catch that southern wave lingering in the SE US. The problem right now for further west areas is it’s not capturing it quite as soon as Feb ‘13. Expand Yea. And I don’t mean to throw out historic KU’s as analogs here either. This has a long ways to go for that but...can’t deny the potent signal either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:58 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not impossible this ends up a PF special. Keep that in back pocket in case Expand That’s been in my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:01 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s been in my thoughts Expand and prayers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:58 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not impossible this ends up a PF special. Keep that in back pocket in case Expand This season has had a bunch of those, even a handul of rain to Mainers which models had shown CT the actually getting snow 5-8 days out. In other words, give it 3 days from now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 UK looks like a big hit for se zones as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:58 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It wouldn’t and I agree it’s early to make such assumptions. I’m simply hedging given the flow. If we had a traffic jam in the maritimes, different story. This one seems very timing dependent, which can go either direction...I suppose that’s your point. Gotchya. Expand I’ve seen these things come in much closer given the origin from the south. I know the flow perhaps isn’t too prone to buckling, but never underestimate those srn origins. Just something to keep in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 In any case it’s day 6 and we probably are talking about things we would laugh at a few years ago. Many are just wanting a good storm including myself. Still plenty that could happen given how complicated the setup is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:58 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not impossible this ends up a PF special. Keep that in back pocket in case Expand Put March 2012 in your back pocket...and keep it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:12 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: UK looks like a big hit for se zones as well. Expand Let’s see where we’re at Tuesday morning, hey. All we can ask for is the potential to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Yea, a little over analysis on my part. Just a little excitement with the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Put March 2012 in your back pocket...and keep it there. Expand Ha. Might as well have it drop in the toilet on the next visit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 What an awesome day out on the trails yesterday, 198 miles, No shortage of snow in the Eustis - Jackman corridor, They were in the 10-14" range last Thursdays storm and it snowed friday and most of yesterday with those plumes coming off Lake Ontario, They had another 3" of feathers. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Put March 2012 in your back pocket...and keep it there. Expand Just prep yourself that rain is a possibility and should that happen you’re not so upset .. or.. just ignore the persistence of this season and NW favorable setups that ended up as rain, and forecast jackpots in Methuen , MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Just prep yourself that rain is a possibility and should that happen you’re not so upset Expand Yes, absolutely. But refresh my memory of the point in March 2012 when we entertained the notion of a KU magnitude event for even a portion of the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:16 PM, CoastalWx said: In any case it’s day 6 and we probably are talking about things we would laugh at a few years ago. Many are just wanting a good storm including myself. Still plenty that could happen given how complicated the setup is. Expand Gefs loading up that -epo/-nao pattern after the 15th. A similar look on the eps. We sell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:38 PM, Allsnow said: Gefs loading up that -epo/-nao pattern after the 15th. A similar look on the eps. We sell? Expand Wouldn't surprise me, but I'm done tying force neg NAO down people's throats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, absolutely. But refresh my memory of the point in March 2012 when we entertained the notion of a KU magnitude event for even a portion of the region... Expand This winter and winter forecasts included.. expect the unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wouldn't surprise me, but I'm done tying force neg NAO down people's throats. Expand Eventually the top has to burst on this Pv. Which would probably lead to a period of blocking. Now is that in March or April who knows...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said: This winter and winter forecasts included.. expect the unexpected Expand I expected another event in latter February or early March....it would be a little outside of the identified two-week window, but I still hope it materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 OTS is a much bigger threat than a stemwinder going up through SNE. This pattern is progressive...the key is we could get a temporary stall or slowdown of the system if the southern stream is captured by closing off northern stream H5 south of LI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:41 PM, Allsnow said: Eventually the top has to burst on this Pv. Which would probably lead to a period of blocking. Now is that in March or April who knows...lol Expand Yes. I thought that it would have been happening by now.....no spinning that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:47 PM, ORH_wxman said: OTS is a much bigger threat than a stemwinder going up through SNE. This pattern is progressive...the key is we could get a temporary stall or slowdown of the system if the southern stream is captured by closing off northern stream H5 south of LI. Expand Yea, I'm not that worried about a rain event, but it is plausible, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I expected another event in latter February or early March....it would be a little outside of the identified two-week window, but I still hope it materializes. Expand We all do . Hope springs eternal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 12z gefs shifted se, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 5:52 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12z gefs shifted se, fwiw. Expand I’m more concerned about a whiff vs anything else.... this doesn’t scream cutting Rainer to me. Id put it at like 70% whiff 30% impact right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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