40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: Which algorithm though? There’s actual euro output which I believe is all your temp levels, qpf, and it may even have ptype...but the actual accumulation maps are usually produced by 3rd party vendors which interpret that raw euro data differently. In this case, if you are using a map that has an algorithm which severely punishes sfc temps above freezing then you’ll end up with an unrealistically low snowfall map. Even the pivotal wx clown map has like 18-24” over parts of E Ma. It’s just another way to interpret the data. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: Which algorithm though? There’s actual euro output which I believe is all your temp levels, qpf, and it may even have ptype...but the actual accumulation maps are usually produced by 3rd party vendors which interpret that raw euro data differently. In this case, if you are using a map that has an algorithm which severely punishes sfc temps above freezing then you’ll end up with an unrealistically low snowfall map. Even the pivotal wx clown map has like 18-24” over parts of E Ma. It’s just another way to interpret the data. Expand Normally the F5 maps are most accurate, but I agree that it looks to warm in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 You can see the gfs slowing the southern stream down for a couple runs in a row now, and continuing at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Expand Yeah that is he Eurowx map (now called F5?) It’s another 3rd party vendor and they are usually pretty conservative and often correct...esp with sleet potential. But the marginal sfc here in this instance may hurt the accuracy because heavy snow at 33 is accumulating rapidly. Light to moderate snow may not. At any rate. This is all probably moot since we’re discussing a 6+ day solution. Lol. But it’s a good example of hashing out different clown maps and their limitations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Normally the F5 maps are most accurate, but I agree that it looks to warm in this instance. Expand Yeah...I just posted above before I saw this. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that is he Eurowx map (now called F5?) It’s another 3rd party vendor and they are usually pretty conservative and often correct...esp with sleet potential. But the marginal sfc here in this instance may hurt the accuracy because heavy snow at 33 is accumulating rapidly. Light to moderate snow may not. At any rate. This is all probably moot since we’re discussing a 6+ day solution. Lol. But it’s a good example of hashing out different clown maps and their limitations. Expand If it happens ,Isn’t this a Friday night event? 6+ days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Pedestrian ray? From Twitter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that is he Eurowx map (now called F5?) It’s another 3rd party vendor and they are usually pretty conservative and often correct...esp with sleet potential. But the marginal sfc here in this instance may hurt the accuracy because heavy snow at 33 is accumulating rapidly. Light to moderate snow may not. At any rate. This is all probably moot since we’re discussing a 6+ day solution. Lol. But it’s a good example of hashing out different clown maps and their limitations. Expand Agreed. I only looked at H5, then that clown map....not H925 temps, etc....not at day 6...so you can understand why I commented about the surface lacking. I agree, it would verify much snowier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:51 PM, weathafella said: Pedestrian ray? From Twitter.. Expand Again, read that last few posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 That reminds me of the March 2018 event in which I jacked TBH. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Ha I’ll sell that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Inasmuch as tracking the corona virus has been much more fascinating than winter events this year, RI has it's first case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Looks like a rt24 jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:55 PM, 8611Blizz said: Looks like a rt24 jack Expand In reality that theoretical jackpot would be along the gradient....March 2018 clowns had the jack near PYM and it ended up here. Those clown maps are driven by low level forcing and neglect the mid levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That reminds me of the March 2018 event in which I jacked TBH. Expand 31”***. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Tblizz cancelling storm because of the icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 gfs looking healthier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That reminds me of the March 2018 event in which I jacked TBH. Expand Stuck in a 5 mile wide sub zone for a few hours, but otherwise awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 12z icon says what storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That reminds me of the March 2018 event in which I jacked TBH. Expand I’m shocked you think you will jackpot. We’ve never seen that post before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:51 PM, weathafella said: Pedestrian ray? From Twitter.. Expand Buy buy buy..... look at that cutoff towards central Conn though.... yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I’m shocked you think you will jackpot. We’ve never seen that post before Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Jeff and I were talking about how sne will bookend this winter with another 18+" and surpass our seasonal totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:00 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: 31”***. Expand While I got 8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs looking healthier. Expand Still misses Norlun ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I’m shocked you think you will jackpot. We’ve never seen that post before Expand Not what I said....that one clown chart would imply a JP in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 4:04 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: While I got 8”. Expand Yeah. It was decent here but nothing like Ray’s area. 12” maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Ray hits 30 like W SNE hits 10. On 3/1/2020 at 4:02 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Buy buy buy..... look at that cutoff towards central Conn though.... yikes Expand We are used to it. This has another E SNE special written all over it. GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Poor misunderstood Ray. I got what you were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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