Wild Speculation for Winter 20 -21

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 I don't think it is off topic at all @Save the itchy algae!. Good questions and a fair point. I think it definitely is, as raindancewx states and you suggest, "relative" given the major recent losses in sea ice up there. I had actually not looked at it and just from hearing what people had been saying, assumed the ++++AO and +++EPO had to rebuild quite a bit. However, sho nuff, you're right. 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

Since it was in banter and raindancewx didn't cite sources, it could be that this article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3618-9#Sec15 was the one he was using for the claim (conclusions from that study):

 

The spatial pattern of those CI persistent anomalies that lead the NAO by 1 year is quasi-annular about the Arctic-high latitudes coast, extending over the West Baffin Bay-Davis Strait-Labrador coast and the North-East Okhotsk sea (with positive anomalies leading the NAO positive phase). The maximal phase of this co-variability is triggered when a high pressure anomaly develops 1 year before the NAO+ (low pressure for NAO-) over the Central Arctic extending over North Greenland-Canadian Archipelago-Baffin Bay with centres also over the Laptev Sea and North Barents Sea. This “Arctic bridge” appears as a pre-conditioning feature of the maximal NAO phase, being systematic under transient climates. Its role is linked to cold advection over both: the North-Western Atlantic and North-Western Pacific with evaporative ocean cooling, low pressure formation and persistent latent heat advection over the mid-latitudes land. So a persistent, annular, negative meridional thermal gradient is achieved about the Arctic coast, leading positive vorticity over Central Arctic the following year (when leading NAO+). A mode of CI variability captures this pattern and is leading the NAO index by 1 year, having similar spectral properties to the NAO index. The highest leading correlation of this mode is obtained over ([35°N–90°N]), domain that couples the Arctic with the high-latitudes.

 

Another thing to consider is that the NAO is measured at sea level, not higher up where we usually want it for blocking and I'm guessing most researchers, even if they like snow like us, have to go by how the measurement is taken to get their results published. 

 

While he may be on shakier ground concerning the sea ice, there has also been talk of the lag after the solar minimum producing an NAO, so I thought I'd look at that too. 

Probably the most famous once of these is 2009 - 10:

and here is the solar plot:

 

That hypothesis also checks out in 1998 or so:

 

It gets less evident in the late 80s though:

As you go further back there is a correlation again, but that was also with an favorable AMO, so that could have had a say too.   

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Going to roll with moderate to strong La Nina, -QBO, MJO 4-6 quiet, more blocking than normal.  Lots of conflicting signals which result in periods of extreme warmth and extreme cold that result in slightly AN temps, but bouts of severe cold at times.  Going to be moderate/strong Nina vs high latitude blocking.  I am not sold on a -NAO, but do feel the EPO/PNA and AO will cooperate at times.  I feel it is a decent gamble to say that it will be cooler than DJF from this winter.  Just hoping the La Nina doesn't take hold during summer as it will get very hot and dry if so.  I suspect August and September have the potential to really be warm and dry.  

[John1122]

2012 ended up being the lowest summer ice extent on record due to a very unfavorable pattern that developed in spring and summer over the Arctic. 2012 at this time of year wasn't remotely the lowest ice extent on record. We are slightly ahead of 2012 right now and overall this winter has seen gains in Arctic ice that easily outpaced average.  Currently sea is is ahead of 2019 on this date, well ahead of 2018 on this date, well ahead of 2017 on this date, well ahead of 2016 on this date, ahead of 2015 on this date, ahead of 2014 on this date, roughly tied with 2013 on this date, ahead of 2011 on this date, roughly tied with 2010, behind 2009 and 2008, ahead of 2007, ahead of 2006, ahead of 2005, behind 2004-2001. So in the last 20 years we are currently ahead on Arctic sea ice vs 14 of the 20 years. So the +AO has done pretty good work in the Arctic this year.

[jaxjagman]

In moderate Ninas its a crap shoot for the Valley.Unless we get the right teleconnections -AO/+PNA we will see a more of the cold locked up above us,but what's new theses last winters,but Carver is right  with his teleconnection discussion up above.To be honest all Ninas in avg,if its neutral,weak or moderate your chances of cold winters would weigh slightly warmer than colder and strong Ninas from the past would just make you think about the folllowing winter and forget the one you are in

In typical strong IOD years, like this year the ENSO would seem to go more negative into winter.I.E 95,98,07.So the IOD would seemingly be a non-player with the MJO signal,like this year.

In some of these years 95,98,07 looking at SSWE years,1995 didn't have one,.1998 had one Dec 16th while 2007 was Feb 23rd,so no help here.But SSWE's would result in the same out coming because it would depend on blocking and when it actually does occur.In the winter of 1995 was a cold winter without a SSWE.

But the coldest winter,i'm just basing this on the strong IOD years was back into the 1995-96 winter without a SSWE

3) Winter 1995/96

The 1995/96 winter (DJF) season featured abnormally cold and snowy conditions in the northern plains, the eastern half of the Midwest, the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states, and much of Canada. For the season as whole, temperatures averaged 3°-5^oC below normal across western and central Canada, and 1°-2^oC below normal across the northern tier of the United States and throughout the eastern seaboard from Florida to New England (see section 5, Fig. 59a ). In the East, these conditions contrasted with the abnormally warm temperatures and low snowfall totals (less than 25% of normal) observed during the 1994/95 winter.

One prominent aspect of the 1995/96 winter season was a recurring pattern of enhanced northwesterly flow, which extended from northern Alaska and the Bering Sea to southeastern Canada and the north-central United States. This flow brought a series of major winter storms and severe winter outbreaks to the northern and eastern United States, resulting in record-breaking cold and snowfall totals in many regions. The season also featured considerable variability over large portions of the United States and Canada, with periods of extreme cold and snow followed by brief periods of warmth and rain.

The most notable cold-air outbreak occurred during 29 January-6 February 1996, when temperatures averaged 11°-17^oC below normal from the southern Canadian prairies southeastward through the northern and central plains and western Great Lakes and more than 6^oC below normal throughout the rest of the United States with the exception of the Southwest. Temperatures dropped below -40^oC throughout interior Canada during the period and below -46^oC in some portions of central Canada. In the United States, all-time record low temperatures were set in four states (Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Rhode Island), and nearly 400 daily record lows were either tied or broken. Additionally, the cold temperatures were accompanied by strong winds that produced extreme wind chill temperatures below -50^oC over much of Canada and large portions of the northern United States. The upper-level height and anomaly fields (Fig. 48a) reveal that the Arctic outbreak was associated with a highly amplified flow, featuring above-normal heights across the high latitudes of the central North Pacific and well below normal heights throughout central North America. Within this flow pattern, height contours originating in Alaska, eastern Siberia, and the Arctic Circle covered central and southern Canada and extended southeastward across the upper one-third of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. This pattern resulted in a sustained flow of pure Arctic air into central and eastern North America.

This Arctic outbreak was immediately followed during 6-10 February by much milder air across central North America. During this 5-day period, temperatures reached 21^oC in the plains states, more than a 50^oC increase from the record-low readings observed the prior week. At Tulsa, Oklahoma, new February extreme minimum (-24^oC) and maximum (32.2^oC) records were set within 18 days of each other in association with the Arctic outbreak and subsequent warm-up. This warm-up was associated with a large-scale transition in the upper-level flow to below-normal heights and a deep trough over western Alaska and an amplified ridge over the intermountain region of North America (Fig. 48b). This pattern resulted in a strong and extensive flow of marine air from the central North Pacific into virtually all of North America.

Overall, snowfall totals by the end of February averaged more than 150% of normal over the Dakotas and the upper Midwest and over the central and eastern United States from Indiana northeastward to southeastern Maine and southeastward to the Virginia coast (Fig. 49). Totals exceeded 200% of normal from southern Virginia northward to northern Massachusetts, and more than 300% of normal snowfall was recorded from central Maryland northward to southern New York and throughout the southern Appalachian Mountains region. Totals also averaged 200%-300% of normal over eastern North Dakota, northwestern Minnesota, and western South Dakota.

Many locations established new all-time record seasonal snowfall totals during the 1995/96 cold season (Table 2). The largest total snowfall (573 cm) was observed at Sault Saint Marie, Michigan, which broke its previous highest total snowfall accumulation record of 454 cm. Most of the other records were established in the East, extending from Virginia in the south to Massachusetts in the Northeast. For many of these cities, the previous snowfall records were broken by mid-February. In some locations the previous record snowfall totals were exceeded by more than 60 cm during the winter of 1995/96.

Perhaps the most notable snow event during the winter was the blizzard of 6-9 January 1996, which af
fected the entire eastern United States. During this event, 50-120 cm of snow covered the eastern seaboard from the mid-Ohio valley eastward to eastern Virginia and northward to southern Massachusetts (Fig. 50). Totals exceeded 76 cm at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, establishing a new single-storm record, and reached 87.5 cm in west-central New Jersey and 120 cm in Pocahantas County, West Virginia. Additionally, most areas from Washington, D.C., northeastward to Providence, Rhode Island, reported one of the five biggest single-storm snowfall totals on record during the storm, which resulted in a shutdown of most airports on the East Coast from Virginia northward and made other modes of transportation virtually impossible.

In contrast, during the following week the eastern United States experienced a dramatic warm-up and heavy rains (50-150 mm), resulting in a rapid snow melt and extensive runoff. These conditions produced flooding throughout the mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast during 19-24 January. During this period, all major rivers in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, New York, and Vermont crested 1.2 m-3.6 m above flood stage. In many areas, this was the highest recorded crest since the flooding associated with Hurricane Agnes in June 1972.

 

 

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[jaxjagman]

Maybe we are headed into a cycle with the IOD?I omitted the IOD into 1997 because this was such a viscous cycle based on the ONI but still has some merit,but seemingly after a strong IOD year we see a strong ElNino sign roughly three years after,probably means nothing,just pointing out a possibility

 

1993	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
1994	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.7	1.0	1.1
1995	1.0	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	-0.2	-0.5	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0
1996	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5
1997	-0.5	-0.4	-0.1	0.3	0.8	1.2	1.6	1.9	2.1	2.3	2.4	2.4
1998	2.2	1.9	1.4	1.0	0.5	-0.1	-0.8	-1.1	-1.3	-1.4	-1.5	-1.6
1999	-1.5	-1.3	-1.1	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0	-1.1	-1.1	-1.2	-1.3	-1.5	-1.7
Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2000	-1.7	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.7	-0.6	-0.6	-0.5	-0.5	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7
2001	-0.7	-0.5	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3
2002	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.9	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.1
2003	0.9	0.6	0.4	0.0	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4
2004	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
2005	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.3	-0.6	-0.8
2006	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.3	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.9	0.9
2007	0.7	0.3	0.0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	-0.5	-0.8	-1.1	-1.4	-1.5	-1.6
2008	-1.6	-1.4	-1.2	-0.9	-0.8	-0.5	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.6	-0.7
2009	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.7	1.0	1.3	1.6
Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8
2019	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6

[nrgjeff]

AMS paper from U. Maryland has a contrarian view we may be heading into a major / active solar cycle. Hypothesis is solar storms dragged out cycle 23. This cycle 24 has been a little short in time duration and solar storms. Getting ready for 25 to roar out of the gates strong. Endless warm winters!

Again it's just a contrarian hypothesis. But it would mesh with 2012 going into a warm 2012-13 winter. If anything can go wrong...

[raindancewx]

I just threw in some numbers for 2019-20, but you can see, after the lowest annualized solar year (monthly sunspots July-June/12), the NAO goes negative in winter, at least in recent history it has.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the annualized solar cycle effects have been showing up - very wet Northern Plains / cold West, relatively uninterrupted since 2016-17, which is when we fell below the magical 55 sunspot/year threshold I use for low-solar.

[nrgjeff]

Above agrees with consensus on the Solar Forecast too. But if the Contrarian verifies, we already had our minimum. Head over to the Climate Change threads.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Anyone want to take a stab at deciphering this guy?

 

 

[PowellVolz]

Anyone want to take a stab at deciphering this guy?
 
 

.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

.

 

Same here, lol. 

[weathertree4u]

14 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Anyone want to take a stab at deciphering this guy?

 

 

He is implying that we are headed into a cooler climate based on previous solar mins and the previous tilts of the Earth; could very well be but there are multiple drivers of climate and the weather in general, not just as in this case, solar mins and tilt of the Earth. 

[nrgjeff]

He's wrong. Looking for attention. I don't see anyone by that name with credentials on Linked In.

Currently the Milankovitch Cycles approximately cancel out each other. That's why Climate Science can more reliably zero in on the solar cycle and Carbon.

The divergence is startling. Sun is sleeping; temps and CO2 continue up; and previously, they had always all 3 been in lock step.

[Windspeed]

He's wrong. Looking for attention. I don't see anyone by that name with credentials on Linked In. Currently the Milankovitch Cycles approximately cancel out each other. That's why Climate Science can more reliably zero in on the solar cycle and Carbon. The divergence is startling. Sun is sleeping; temps and CO2 continue up; and previously, they had always all 3 been in lock step.  

 

 

I agree. Not to slander the individual or say they are uneducated, anyone can be wrong in the process of research. I would just be cautious and certainly not trusting. Established science would suggest we are lucky to not be in a Solar maximum, that atmospheric influences might be even more extreme. Though again, divergence in climate is not simply explained by it's hotter, colder, wetter or drier at any specific location. There are, of course, other regional variables; but the idea here is increasing periods of measurable short and long term extreme deviations per climatological norm at any specific geographic location. If anything, that we are not within increased Solar output could be taken as alarming.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Thanks @weathertree4u @nrgjeff and @Windspeed for the thoughts on that guy. I saw that Masiello followed him when he created his account, so thought at that time that maybe he had some good info. I suspected he was trying to sell the low solar = better winters or hurricane seasons, but he was pretty obfuscate about how he did it and I just couldn't make heads or tails of it. 

[Carvers Gap]

On 2/23/2020 at 1:25 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Going to roll with moderate to strong La Nina, -QBO, MJO 4-6 quiet, more blocking than normal.  Lots of conflicting signals which result in periods of extreme warmth and extreme cold that result in slightly AN temps, but bouts of severe cold at times.  Going to be moderate/strong Nina vs high latitude blocking.  I am not sold on a -NAO, but do feel the EPO/PNA and AO will cooperate at times.  I feel it is a decent gamble to say that it will be cooler than DJF from this winter.  Just hoping the La Nina doesn't take hold during summer as it will get very hot and dry if so.  I suspect August and September have the potential to really be warm and dry.  

Still like this overall call, but would move the overall temps for winter to AN (and not slightly)...still with some extreme cold embedded in an overall warmer pattern.   I think we do see some blocking, but we likely better score on the front end of winter.  A strong Nina would likely be a warm and dry winter in NE TN.  Moderate has a strong lean warm IMBY.  However, there are some cold winters embedded within modern Nina climatology.  That said, right now climatology has not been a great predictor of late IMHO.  

[Met1985]

On 5/20/2020 at 9:15 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Still like this overall call, but would move the overall temps for winter to AN (and not slightly)...still with some extreme cold embedded in an overall warmer pattern.   I think we do see some blocking, but we likely better score on the front end of winter.  A strong Nina would likely be a warm and dry winter in NE TN.  Moderate has a strong lean warm IMBY.  However, there are some cold winters embedded within modern Nina climatology.  That said, right now climatology has not been a great predictor of late IMHO.  

Really with blocking we cannot get no worse than what we just went through.  We had zero blocking in winter and we were wll above average.

[John1122]

I just wish we could get our BN warm season weather, which has been frequent the last few years, to actually cooperate in winter and land there for a change.

[Windspeed]

[Greyhound]

On 6/9/2020 at 12:00 PM, Windspeed said:

 

Oh well.  Bring on Winter 2021-22!!!!

[Carvers Gap]

I think I will put out some winter wx ideas during the next couple of weeks.  I would expect a prolonged summer followed by a short fall season.  The transformation to La Nina is moving along pretty quickly.  Things are drying out somewhat here.  But hey, it really couldn't have been much soggier.  I think December goes against recent trends and goes seasonal which would fit Nina wx patterns.  Jan should be warm.  Feb should be warm, but might be less warm than Jan.  I do think we will see one or two extremely cold shots of cold air during the winter.  For whatever reason, a part of me feels like this winter is going to buck climatology - I am really going to have to fight the urge to go with that instinct and just roll with science.  Science says this winter should be warm with some bouts of extreme but short bouts of cold - meaning islands of cold in a sea of warmth.  My gut is less sure of that.  At some point our winters will turn colder.  Seems like the winters out West during the past decade have been snowy no matter what the wx pattern.  During the late 80s and 90s, that was the opposite in many cases.  Makes me wonder if that trends shifts eastward at some point.  Anyway, the AMO is likely many years from being helpful.   The QBO, interestingly, has stalled in the single digits around -5.  That could mean that it is not going to stay negative for long OR it could mean that the QBO cycle is stalled and is not fully in the negative phase yet, delaying the onset of the next positive phase.  Anyway, will try to dig a little more in the coming weeks.  If I lived out West, I would be really excited about this winter, especially the northern Rockies.  Last winter was about as bad as it gets here...so really no where to go but up.  Pacific temp gradients(reference typhoon tip and Jeff here) have washed-out typical Pacific influences recently.  Might it be that the La Nina restores that gradient AFTER this winter.  Also, the IO will have a say.  

[Mr. Kevin]

Hi everyone. I saw some snow fall but no accumulation here in my area this past winter. I think the IO will be important, like it is every winter. I know people are extremely apprehensive after this past winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Going to keep it simple this year...

December:  Seasonal temps / BN precip

January:  AN temps / BN precip

February:  AN temps / BN precip

Best chances for snow will occur late November into early January.  Expecting a big thaw in January this year, BUT I do think we see bouts of serious cold this winter despite my AN temps forecast.  I was really bullish at the end of last winter regarding the upcoming winter being a dud.  And it may well be.  Strong to moderate La Nina's are generally a non-starter IMBY.  The good news, as I have stated before, is that we really need the Pacific to cool down some, and it has been some time since we have seen a strong La Nina.  Winters that have followed strong La Ninas can be pretty good in MBY, so I will suffer through a strong Nina event if need be this winter.   That said, we all saw last winter when phase 7-8-1 had constant precip last winter and the MJO would not go there at all.  I don't think that happens this winter with La Nina - meaning those regions should have cooler SSTs and less convection propagating through them.  If anything, the door is open for the MJO to at least cycle through colder phases 2-3 times IMHO.  I don't think it locks into those regions, but who knows....I don't close the door on anything this far out.  The IO is yet another unknown.  While I won't be surprised to see several waves propagate eastward this winter from the IO, I think a BN SST setup in MJO regions 7, 8, and 1 will potentially weaken those waves.  So, here are my components for the upcoming winter in order of importance:

1.  Moderate La Nina:  That should dry things out this fall, maybe even causing an early start to winter.  The question is, "When does the atmosphere transition to a Nina pattern?"  Right now, still looks like a hungover Nino pattern.  What would be swell is if the Nino pattern could hang on long enough to temper the normally prolonged summer that Nina's are known for.  Then, even better, Nina kicks in and we get early season cold.  We have a shot at that combo the longer that Nino holds on.  However, have to think some much AN heat will show up during September at some point with a quick flip to cold in November.

2.  MJO sea surface regions 7, 8, and 1 "should" cool off.  That will balance point one, and provide maybe some temporary but severe bouts of cold.  

3.  The SER.  I think it sets up shop on the EC.  "Where?" is the question.  Ideally, we want it closer to the coast.  If it bulls its way westward, then E TN will fight it all winter.  Might not be a terrible thing for areas in west TN though, and even middle.  If we can get it to belly into the coast only, we could do better than my above forecast.

4.  Precip is likely to be BN in MBY.  That means even if it gets cold, we have fewer pitches to swing at.  But honestly, last winter was pretty crappy.  We can always do worse, but odds are that this year won't be.

5.  Nina winters usually have a tendency to send some severe cold into the SE even though the overall winter is AN in the norms.

6.  QBO.  It has stalled a bit lately.  If it comes back up, we have trouble.  We do not want a short negative phase.  My guess is that this stall  might mean that get 1-2 more months of negative(referring to the 14 month phase lasting a bit longer) than normal.  That means we could make it most of winter with a decent QBO.   It would be better if the QBO were to go positive in late April or May vs March.  

7.  Wildcard....Just how hot will it get this summer/early fall in the SE?  Seems like once the furnace turns on, it takes a lot of time to evacuate that air.  So far, so good.  Last year, I was feeling pretty good during July about a nice fall...and then September just went bonkers.  

As for snow, everybody wants to know how much we are going to get.  The answer is that it is absolutely impossible to know.  I think our best chances will be early.  After that, one would think that January and February will provide some very long timeframes between chances.  That said, it just "seems" the weather pattern from the past two years right is switching up. We are out of shoulder season which fooled me into thinking the pattern had broken early last winter(the pattern being a little pocket trough forming ad nauseam over the Mountain West in the front range).  With some big heat already being felt in the Mountain West and a transient ridge reforming every few weeks there...makes me think we are seeing a transition.  So, I am less negative about the upcoming winter.  My gut says it will be better than I describe above, but my brain says to beware of moderate to strong Nina patterns - they are generally hostile to winter in the SE.  So, I will go with BN snowfall, but maybe closer to normal than many will forecast, but better than last winter.  Short and sweet with no graphics.  

[nrgjeff]

I like it! All hail the guts to put out detailed thoughts months ahead. Agree December is probably the best shot at sustained BN temps, along with bookend weeks of Novie and January.

ABNA index is another consideration. Keep a warm North and our source is wrecked. True Alaska / Yukon may be colder, but it'd have to traverse a warm southern Canada. If the Northern US lacks snowcover, modification kills the cold airmass. 

La Nina influences may show more later in winter late January and February. Yeah a SER would be a drag. I'm OK if it's sunny - better than cloudy and mild. Perhaps by November or early December we'll know a secondary pattern - and hope it is one that interrupts the SER.

European monthlies are on fire January. Good grief! Glad it's the last month and pretty much zero correlation with actual wx.

[fountainguy97]

Very interestingly I just pulled my first batch of analogs for the winter and low and behold they fall right in line with you thoughts outlined above.  

I just looking for similar ENSO progressions and pulled these years. I omitted a few that had strong ninos/ninas but left a few that actually hovered neutral but dipped back into Nino. 

Analogs: 92-93, 95-96, 03-04, 05-06, 10-11, 12-13

Purple zones are similar to 2020. Brown designates ENSO which mostly correspond to the way 2020 is evolving (some lag by a few months) Red is a zone that stands apart of the 2020 map. The older maps are more coarse so who knows how similar they truly are.

Anyway, in general these years all share some very similar global SST patterns.

 

I'm just throwing these in here. This is how those analogs evolved vs how we are evolving so far. 

PDO Analog Comparison

 

 

QBO analog Comparison

 

PNA Analog Comparison

 

 

Hurricane Activity Comparison

I found this extremely interesting. 5 of the 6 analogs were hyperactivte cane seasons. While things are not set in stone it is pretty likely that this year comes out very active as well.

 

Analog US temps/precip in next post

[fountainguy97]

Here are the analog Temps!  

 

Very similar to Carver's thoughts above!

 

 

The Precip is dry BUT its a dry December, wet January, dry February.

Here are the 3 months combined.

 

Here is the wet January

 

 

Anyway, I thought I'd just throw these out here   I'm cautiously optimistic about this winter. Not so much because of a signal for massive cold but more of the chance we have to buck the recent winter patterns we have been stuck in.  A weak nina or cool neutral can actually end up very favorable for alot of areas if we have the right setup elsewhere on the globe.  PNA is also bucking its recent pattern of - in winter and + in summer (the last THREE winters have averaged a -PNA in DJF then prolonged + in summer).  Currently we have seen a nice -PNA this summer. hopefully with some luck that can switch into the fall toward a +PNA through winter.

[weathertree4u]

On 7/15/2020 at 9:27 AM, fountainguy97 said:

Here are the analog Temps!  

 

Very similar to Carver's thoughts above!

 

 

The Precip is dry BUT its a dry December, wet January, dry February.

Here are the 3 months combined.

 

Here is the wet January

 

 

Anyway, I thought I'd just throw these out here   I'm cautiously optimistic about this winter. Not so much because of a signal for massive cold but more of the chance we have to buck the recent winter patterns we have been stuck in.  A weak nina or cool neutral can actually end up very favorable for alot of areas if we have the right setup elsewhere on the globe.  PNA is also bucking its recent pattern of - in winter and + in summer (the last THREE winters have averaged a -PNA in DJF then prolonged + in summer).  Currently we have seen a nice -PNA this summer. hopefully with some luck that can switch into the fall toward a +PNA through winter.

Would not take much to make it a better winter imo

[nrgjeff]

European monthlies are on fire through the end. Literally it's every single month. Obviously that's wrong. I'd expect a cold month, or perhaps split in a couple two week periods, this winter. Otherwise, yeah I'm thinking pretty warm based on persistence and La Nina introducing a January thaw that goes straight through February.

[Mr. Kevin]

35 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

European monthlies are on fire through the end. Literally it's every single month. Obviously that's wrong. I'd expect a cold month, or perhaps split in a couple two week periods, this winter. Otherwise, yeah I'm thinking pretty warm based on persistence and La Nina introducing a January thaw that goes straight through February.

Jeff, it could be right. I still believe December will be our only opportunity for cold weather, based on previous laniñas. Concerned about the mjo again.

[Carvers Gap]

The seasonal CANSIPS which was released today looks much improved for Dec/Jan at 500.  My interpretation is that model is touting a seasonal start to winter and then backing West sometime in early to mid January.  Also, I would interpret that a flip to cold begins sometime in mid-late November.  The model also implies there may be periodic pushes of cold during January before a full retreat to torch city for February.  Very classic Nina pattern.  Here is the Dec look which is not half bad with a. nice EPO/PNA ridge(more EPO than PNA for sure):