nycwinter Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 does not feel that cold at all outside upper 30's gusty wind you can thank the march sun for that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Drier pattern continues. Relative humidity is dropping under 20% early this afternoon. This is the driest start to the year since 2012. Central Park FAIR 46 1 15 VRB7G21 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Mar 7 Missing Count 2020-03-07 5.10 1 2019-03-07 8.17 0 2018-03-07 11.66 0 2017-03-07 7.53 0 2016-03-07 9.06 0 2015-03-07 9.47 0 2014-03-07 8.31 0 2013-03-07 7.20 0 2012-03-07 5.01 0 2011-03-07 10.51 0 2010-03-07 8.85 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Up around 2000` in Delware co. Near the Pepacton reservoir... 35° feels more like 55° with the crystal clear skies and March sun. ~4" of glacier remains in the shaded areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Another dry day. Humidity 17% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 The powerful offshore storm that brought 1"-3" snow to Cape Cod and Nantucket, along with winds that gusted past 50 mph continues to move away from the region. Starting tomorrow, much warmer air will begin streaming into the region. Afterward, an extended period of warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal conditions is likely. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -5.07 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.890. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 15, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.017 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.797. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 49.5degs., or about 7degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 45.5*[39/52] or about 2 or 3 degrees AN. Some snow near the 22nd. is indicated. With THK flat lining, we will simply get closer to Normal during the next 16 days, without a real change: 36* at 7am(really 6am with the clocks changing). 41* by 10am. 48* by Noon. 53* by 3pm. 55* at 4pm. 57* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Beautiful early spring weather. Mid to upper 60’s for the warm spots on Monday. Maybe someone could reach 70 with a guidance beat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Beautiful early spring weather. Mid to upper 60’s for the warm spots on Monday. Maybe someone could reach 70 with a guidance beat. I love it if it’s not going to snow at least let’s get some warm air out here. It feels chilly outside 37 and sunny 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 38 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said: I love it if it’s not going to snow at least let’s get some warm air out here. It feels chilly outside 37 and sunny The Southeast Ridge has become a permanent feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The Southeast Ridge has become a permanent feature. This has to eventually break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Chance of snow next weekend? Icon and gfs has a nice sprawling high. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Chance of snow next weekend? Icon and gfs has a nice sprawling high. you would need an actual storm for it to snow-shows nothing at all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: you would need an actual storm for it to snow-shows nothing at all Icon shows a snowstorm lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowFeen1 said: Icon shows a snowstorm lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I won’t give up until mid April. I’m a total 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Chance of snow next weekend? Icon and gfs has a nice sprawling high. .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Sunday night poppa Sunday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2020 Author Share Posted March 8, 2020 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Chance of snow next weekend? Icon and gfs has a nice sprawling high. Thank you for the laughs lol it’s over. It’s not cold enough to snow next weekend. See you in 10 months lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2020 Author Share Posted March 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: The ICON at 180 hr that’s all they have left lol it’s going to be a long 10 months ahead for them 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Today was a springlike day. The temperature topped out in the upper 50s under brilliant sunshine and a light breeze. The day was ideal for outdoor activities and even early-season boating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The ICON at 180 hr that’s all they have left lol it’s going to be a long 10 months ahead for them I agree it’s going to be long I’m feening right now. Kinda wanting to go to a resort for a weekend this way I get my feen out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Under bright sunshine, temperatures surged into the 50s across the region. High temperatures included: Albany: 59°; Allentown: 59°; Bridgeport: 52°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 59°; Newark: 60°; and, Philadelphia: 59°. Tomorrow will be even more springlike as thermometers top out in the upper 60s and perhaps even lower 70s in some places. Overall, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures now lies ahead. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -1.29 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.453. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 16, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 7, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.117 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.025. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The likelihood that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases has continued to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Got up to 60 today, slighty warmer than expected. I see some Cherry blossoms and such really starting to open now..a few got a Feb head start. "Spring leaf out continues to spread up the middle of the country, three weeks earlier than a long-term average (1981-2010) in some locations. Washington, DC and New York City are 24 days early. Philadelphia, PA is 16 days early and Little Rock, AR is 9 days early.." https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 13 hours ago, bluewave said: Beautiful early spring weather. Mid to upper 60’s for the warm spots on Monday. Maybe someone could reach 70 with a guidance beat. Perfectly normal temperatures for the first week of May. I loathe climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Perfectly normal temperatures for the first week of May. I loathe climate change. One or two days of anomalous warmth does not prove the climate is changing (even though it is). Records today from 2016 will be hard to beat - EWR: 82. NYC: 77. LGA: 75. JFK: 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 38° here currently....59/27 temp split yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 80s by mid March? Euro/EPS have a massive 2012 style eastern ridge. Growing season will be 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 The next 8 days are averging 49.5degs., or about 7degs. AN. Month to date is +6.4[45.4]. Should be about +6.7[47.5] by the 17th. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 48degs., say [41/54], or about 5degs. AN. No snow. 44* here at 7am. 47* by 10am. 50* at 11am. 55* at Noon. 60* at 1:30pm. 67* at 3:30pm. Been 68* variously during 4pm and now, 6pm. 64* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Temperatures rising quickly into the 50’s with the drier conditions continuing.The warm spots should reach the upper 60’s with 70 possible with a guidance beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: 80s by mid March? Euro/EPS have a massive 2012 style eastern ridge. Growing season will be 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule. I don’t see 80’s I see 70’s don’t hype up something that’s not showing up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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