golfer07840 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Gorgeous outside currently. Yet, people are rooting for a slop fest on Sunday, which is just going to disappear in 2 days anyway with the warm up. So why bother? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 62/28 temp split here today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 It's been quite blustery up here today, which took the edge off the warm and sunny angle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 elevated convection is possible tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: March 2002, 12 redux.... Even a temperature departure closer to 2016 or 2010 would be impressive. March...EWR...NYC...LGA 2019.....-1.2...-0.8...-1.0 2018.....-1.7...-2.4...-1.4 2017.....-2.3...-3.3...-1.2 2016...+7.0...+6.4...+6.8 2015....-4.4...-4.4....-4.3 2014....-4.3...-4.8....-5.1 2013....-1.8...-2.4....-1.7 2012...+9.2..+8.4...+8.6 2011...+1.5...-0.2....-0.3 2010...+6.1..+5.7....+5.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Temperatures rose well into the 50s today in the Middle Atlantic region. During mid-week, high temperatures could reach the 60s as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal. Cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front with the potential to bring some snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a measurable snowfall is possible. Afterward, there is growing support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -7.80 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.814. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 10, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March. On March 1, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.496 (RMM). The February 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.971. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 48degs., or about 8degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 45degs.[38/52], or about 4degs. AN. It still amazingly has 2" of snow near the 11th-12th. The 12Z update is [39/52] and no snow. For spite, the LR modelling shows a continuous trough for us starting March 21 and going on and on to early May, when the modelling ends. lol. 50* here at 6am. Well 50* seems to have held by me since 5am, now 50* at 8am. 51* at 9am. Sorry, down to 48* by Noon---got to 52* first, however. Spent most of the PM (2:30-4:30) at 46*,47* with rain/fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 If NYC can hold the low of 50 degrees so far, then it will be a new record warm minimum temperature for March 3rd. The average low is still just 32 degrees. It will probably come down to the timing of the convection and frontal passage tonight. So March is getting off to a more springlike start for a change. 3/3 48 in 1991 47 in 2004 47 in 1878 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KNYC&table=1&num=168&banner=off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 56 right now, 60 in reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Started off at 39 this morning. We're off to the races now. Currently 55. Glad I took the Vette this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 54! Morch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Temps taking off, low of 50, now 60 under hazy sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Looking like we could really see a run at 70 next week. That is truly impressive and will be the first spring break to feel like spring around here for those on break. Few years ago we spent spring break on our 'babymoon' covering San Diego, Palm Spring, Mount San Jacinto, and Phoenix. It was amazing and probably my favorite area of the country. From the beach to snow in one day? Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Looking like we could really see a run at 70 next week. That is truly impressive and will be the first spring break to feel like spring around here for those on break. Few years ago we spent spring break on our 'babymoon' covering San Diego, Palm Spring, Mount San Jacinto, and Phoenix. It was amazing and probably my favorite area of the country. From the beach to snow in one day? Yes please! We’ve had 90’s in March, 70’s are not that impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowFeen1 said: We’ve had 90’s in March not that impressive It is impressive given the past few Marches. Also, compared to climatology it is impressive. Average daily mean for next Tuesday is around 38 degrees F in the park. Also, we have never broken 90 in the park in March. the monthly record is 86 which was last reached on March 31st, 1998. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9503 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 39 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said: We’ve had 90’s in March, 70’s are not that impressive The average highs in March range from 46 to 55 in NYC. 70 is well above normal for any point in the month. I’ll sign up for some days like that, especially after what March has given us the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 34 minutes ago, matt9503 said: The average highs in March range from 46 to 55 in NYC. 70 is well above normal for any point in the month. I’ll sign up for some days like that, especially after what March has given us the last few years. Dude we’ve had 70’s in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: It is impressive given the past few Marches. Also, compared to climatology it is impressive. Average daily mean for next Tuesday is around 38 degrees F in the park. Also, we have never broken 90 in the park in March. the monthly record is 86 which was last reached on March 31st, 1998. Right, and spring has turned out to be cool and wet for the last several years, March included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 on March 22nd 1998 NYC got 5" of snow...2-3" on Staten island...from March 27th to 31st the temperature topped 80 degrees...90 imby on the 31st...April 1998 had no days in the 80's...the highest temp was 73 near the end of the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2020 Author Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: It is impressive given the past few Marches. Also, compared to climatology it is impressive. Average daily mean for next Tuesday is around 38 degrees F in the park. Also, we have never broken 90 in the park in March. the monthly record is 86 which was last reached on March 31st, 1998. I remember March, 2012 hitting the 80’s a couple of days after St. Patrick’s Day. Had to turn my A/C on....earliest in the season I can ever remember having to do that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 on March 22nd 1998 NYC got 5" of snow...2-3" on Staten island...from March 27th to 31st the temperature topped 80 degrees...90 imby on the 31st...April 1998 had no days in the 80's...the highest temp was 73 near the end of the month...Mets first opener in March, and it was 87 degrees at Shea. I remember walking around Liberty Science Center on a class field trip in shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Our first possible thunderstorms of spring are on track for tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Today saw readings again reach much above normal levels. In the South, Atlanta picked up 0.49" rain today bringing its year-to-date precipitation to 20.03". That's the highest figure so early in the year. The previous record was 19.38" in 1990. Cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front with the potential to bring a little snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a measurable snowfall is possible. Recent model runs have kept the storm farther offshore lowering the probability of snowfall. Afterward, there is growing support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +2.11 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.992. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 11, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the middle of the second week of March. On March 2, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.774 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.496. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Radar looks good for some heavy rain/ isolated thunder 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Mt holly with the severe thunderstorm warning for a large area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Winter 2020 Winter storm warnings: 1 Severe Thunderstorm warnings: 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just heard some thunder outside my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, SI Mailman said: Just heard some thunder outside my window. ZzzzZZZZZzZZ wake me up when we have snow on the ground 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9503 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said: ZzzzZZZZZzZZ wake me up when we have snow on the ground Can you sleep until at least December? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 GETTING SOME LIGHTNING/THUNDER/RAIN/WIND here (Coney Island) at 10:12pm. 53* now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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