donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Despite today's chill, New York City is on track to finish February with a mean temperature of 40.1°. That would tie 1954 for the 7th warmest February on record. 2020 was also the fourth year since 2010 where the monthly mean temperature was 40.0° or above and the 10th such year on record. February 2020 also saw near record to record low monthly snowfall in much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Monthly snowfall totals through 4 pm included: Allentown: Trace (tied monthly record low) Boston: 0.5" (9th February case with < 1" snowfall and 3rd since 2010) Bridgeport: Trace (tied monthly record low) Islip: 0.0" (old record: Trace) New York City-Central Park: Trace (record: 0.0", 1998) New York City-JFK: Trace (tied monthly record low) New York City-LGA: Trace (tied monthly record low) Newark: Trace (tied monthly record low) Philadelphia: Trace (tied monthly record low) Providence: Trace (tied monthly record low) Starting tomorrow milder air will move into the region. Temperatures could surge into the 60s during the middle of next week as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -16.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.557. The preliminary February average was +3.231. Only 1990 (+3.402) and 1989 (+3.279) had February averages of +3.000 or above. The preliminary winter average for the AO was +1.960. 82% days were positive, including 31% that had a figure of +3.000 or above. The exceptional strength of the polar vortex and AO+ highlighted the uncertain nature of linkage, if it exists at all, between a solar minimum and Arctic blocking. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 8, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March. On February 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.226. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions will likely see temperatures run 3° to 5° above normal for March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 On 2/27/2020 at 7:51 PM, MJO812 said: No point posting these anymore. Winter is over. Spent the day in Binghamton with my daughter who is thinking of attending ( I'm pushing Rutgers for both tuition and and tradition ) and we ran into several bad snow squalls in the Poconos, saw some areas with snow cover ( but not much ) and had flurries all day on campus. But even they said there wasn't the usual amount of snow this year. However, after enjoying mild temps all winter here, it was cold AF up there, like 21 degrees in the late morning. Not used to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 hours ago, doncat said: I like my March's and April's to be cold and stormy...Plenty of time thereafter for sunshine and warmth. Trout season is short down here; we need mild weather to get a shot at them before it turns too warm; stormy weather and flooded streams aren't good. Essentially, once winter is over I only care if it rains enough to avoid drought. Otherwise, I am happy to never see a T-storm, hurricane, nor'easter or ocean groundswell the whole season. Need enough rain for the garden, that's it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Despite today's chill, New York City is on track to finish February with a mean temperature of 40.1°. That would tie 1954 for the 7th warmest February on record. 2020 was also the fourth year since 2010 where the monthly mean temperature was 40.0° or above and the 10th such year on record. February 2020 also saw near record to record low monthly snowfall in much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Monthly snowfall totals through 4 pm included: Allentown: Trace (tied monthly record low) Boston: 0.5" (9th February case with < 1" snowfall and 3rd since 2010) Bridgeport: Trace (tied monthly record low) Islip: 0.0" (old record: Trace) New York City-Central Park: Trace (record: 0.0", 1998) New York City-JFK: Trace (tied monthly record low) New York City-LGA: Trace (tied monthly record low) Newark: Trace (tied monthly record low) Philadelphia: Trace (tied monthly record low) Providence: Trace (tied monthly record low) Starting tomorrow milder air will move into the region. Temperatures could surge into the 60s during the middle of next week as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -16.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.557. The preliminary February average was +3.231. Only 1990 (+3.402) and 1989 (+3.279) had February averages of +3.000 or above. The preliminary winter average for the AO was +1.960. 82% days were positive, including 31% that had a figure of +3.000 or above. The exceptional strength of the polar vortex and AO+ highlighted the uncertain nature of linkage, if it exists at all, between a solar minimum and Arctic blocking. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 8, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March. On February 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.226. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions will likely see temperatures run 3° to 5° above normal for March. I would be careful predicting 3 - 5 degrees above normal for March IMO especially if EPO goes negative as forecasted............. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I would be careful predicting 3 - 5 degrees above normal for March IMO especially if EPO goes negative as forecasted............. During the second half of March, the EPO is much less a factor due to the shorter wave lengths. For example, during the March 16-31, 1981-2019 period, New York City had a mean temperature of 45.1°. During that period, the mean temperature for EPO cases < 0 was 45.0° and the average for those with an EPO of -1.000 or below was 44.7°. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 4degs. AN(used 26/40 for today). The first 17 days of March are averaging(06Z,GFS) 43degs., [37/49]or about 2 degs. AN. Slight chances for snow on the 7th. and the 11th. The models should take to rolling Craps, instead of predicting the atmosphere. lol. The next 30 days and next 90 days look super similar to each other with a SE Ridge-Mid Atlantic Ridge and the attendant AN T's east of the Mississippi. In fact the whole NH could have the same thing said about it, except the Polar regions head from BN to just Normal during the next three months, every other anomalous zone stays the same. 27* here at 6am., overnight low was 26*. 30* by 9am. 32* by about 10am. 34* at 11am. 36* at Noon. 38* at 1pm. 43* by 3pm. 46* at 4pm. 42* by 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 March 2001 all over again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 4degs. AN(used 26/40 for today). The first 17 days of March are averaging(06Z,GFS) 43degs., [37/49]or about 2 degs. AN. Slight chances for snow on the 7th. and the 11th. The models should take to rolling Craps, instead of predicting the atmosphere. lol. The next 30 days and next 90 days look super similar to each other with a SE Ridge-Mid Atlantic Ridge and the attendant AN T's east of the Mississippi. In fact the whole NH could have the same thing said about it, except the Polar regions head from BN to just Normal during the next three months, every other anomalous zone stays the same. 27* here at 6am., overnight low was 26*. This might be useful for illustrating the magnitude of the GFS's cold bias. For comparison, you noted that the 6z GFS has a 3/1-17 mean temperature of 43.0 degrees for NYC. The multi-model blend I use in my sensitivity analyses shows 44.4 degrees for the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 11 hours ago, NEG NAO said: I would be careful predicting 3 - 5 degrees above normal for March IMO especially if EPO goes negative as forecasted............. EPO has been mainly positive and the dips to negative much less in strength that forecast. I doubt that changes given the persistence of this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Models continuing with the warmer than recent Marches theme. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 15 hours ago, doncat said: I like my March's and April's to be cold and stormy...Plenty of time thereafter for sunshine and warmth. Not I. As a golfer, a cold April is just miserable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: March 2001 all over again That would just be the perfect kick to the teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: March 2001 all over again March 13-15, 2018 would probably be a better case. March 2001 saw 3.5" in NYC. The March 2018 storm dumped 14.9" in Boston with just a trace in NYC and 0.3" in Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 50 minutes ago, golfer07840 said: Not I. As a golfer, a cold April is just miserable. Yeah most people feel that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: March 13-15, 2018 would probably be a better case. March 2001 saw 3.5" in NYC. The March 2018 storm dumped 14.9" in Boston with just a trace in NYC and 0.3" in Newark. That was a really active month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 There was no evidence of the fabled “March lion” today. After a cold start, temperatures rose into the lower 40s under bright sunshine and a cloudless sky. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Milder air began overspreading the region today after a brisk start. Temperatures could surge into the 60s during mid-week as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal. Cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front with the potential to bring some snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a measurable snowfall is possible. Afterward, there is growing support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -17.47 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.991. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 9, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March. On February 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.951 (RMM). The February 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.439. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or 6degs., AN. 40* here at 6am. Was 38* overnight. 42* at 7am. 44* by 9am. 47* at 10am. 48* by Noon. Up steadily to 53* by 8pm. Peaked at 55** at 9:30pm. Because of the outlook for the month, we might as well remember these landmarks: March Normal: 42.5 10th. Place: 46.8, +4.3. 1st. Place: 51.1, +8.6. Now here comes a '06Z, GFS' spitball. The average T for the next 17 days is 38degs., or 3degs. BN with a 20"snowstorm near the 11th---12th. After the 'storm' T averages 32degs.! This is similar to an earlier run that immediately corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 26 degrees here this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Sleet! It's cold, grey and sleeting over me but bright and sunny to my southeast. Weird but I'll take the frozen precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Well that's two months in a row ruined now I had a dusting Saturday so Feb didn't turn out to be a complete bust and now today a trace of frozen pellets so March isn't a bust either. We can't even set proper bust records anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 warming up quickly here-already 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 We are at 62 here as of 12 pm. Gorgeous out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Beautiful day out there today. Went for a walk on my lunch hour. Thermometer said 55 but felt warmer in the sun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Current temp is 61 here. Nice day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Gorgeous outside currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9503 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Last thing I want to think about is tracking a snowstorm with the weather we’ve got today. I’m thinking spring now and not looking back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 What a nice early March day out there. Wow Current temp 65 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 The EPS continues the warm March theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, bluewave said: The EPS continues the warm March theme. March 2002, 12 redux.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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