March 2020

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yep a -NAO and SE ridge can coexist, a common misconception is that it’s impossible to have -NAO and a SE ridge at the same time. That’s what some people don’t understand, they’ll see a -NAO block and think omg it’s going to be cold, not when a SE ridge is flexing underneath it it’s not....

I think that could be the big difference from last year to this year along with the warm water off the coast (vs the cold water of last year)  Of course we could get caught in a squeeze play b/w the ridge and the -NAO and end up with a rainy pattern.  

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I think that could be the big difference from last year to this year along with the warm water off the coast (vs the cold water of last year)  Of course we could get caught in a squeeze play b/w the ridge and the -NAO and end up with a rainy pattern.  

That’s what is separating us from last year for late March and April. I think the SE ridge is much more dominant, which will help to temper the -NAO over the too much more and lead to a much warmer outcome 

[bluewave]

This will be the first time in a while that the Greenland Block is more dominant than the SE Ridge. While it’s not a cold pattern, it will be less warm than the month has been to date.

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first time in a while that the Greenland Block is more dominant than the SE Ridge. While it’s not a cold pattern, it will be less warm than the month has been to date.

 

Similar pattern to early December 2019. 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first time in a while that the Greenland Block is more dominant than the SE Ridge. While it’s not a cold pattern, it will be less warm than the month has been to date.

 

Perfect timing for the trough and highs to start building in the Maritimes, and days of raw easterly winds and low clouds. Just perfect.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Similar pattern to early December 2019. 

 

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Perfect timing for the trough and highs to start building in the Maritimes, and days of raw easterly winds and low clouds. Just perfect.  

Yeah, looks like a wetter pattern with the lows tracking between the SE Ridge and Greenland Block.

 

 

[CIK62]

The GEFS is 10 degrees colder during  the first 9 days of April, than the OP.        45 vs. 55.      How will it be resolved?

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first time in a while that the Greenland Block is more dominant than the SE Ridge. While it’s not a cold pattern, it will be less warm than the month has been to date.

Probably chilly highs and higher mins.

[donsutherland1]

The storm that brought record daily snowfall for March 23 in parts of central New York State and central New England and earlier today in parts of Maine departed. In its wake, today saw temperatures rebound across the region. Temperatures topped out mainly in the middle and upper 50s. Tomorrow will see temperatures hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s as another system brings some rain to the region.

Daily snowfall records for yesterday included:

Albany: 6.1" (old record: 2.7", 2005); Hartford: 3.4" (old record: 2.2", 2005); and, Worcester: 4.2" (old record: 4.1", 1992)

Daily snowfall records for today included: Bangor: 3.4" (old record: 3.1", 1991)

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020.

As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April.

The SOI was -9.67 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.051. That easily surpassed the daily record of +3.176, which was set in 1986.

A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event is in its early stages of development.

On March 23, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.715 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.685.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 77% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/23/2020 at 10:20 AM, bluewave said:

The PV decays when the sunlight returns to the Arctic in the spring.

 

so this is why -NAO are more common in the spring than they are in the winter.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/24/2020 at 3:51 AM, snowman19 said:

Yep a -NAO and SE ridge can coexist, a common misconception is that it’s impossible to have -NAO and a SE ridge at the same time. That’s what some people don’t understand, they’ll see a -NAO block and think omg it’s going to be cold, not when a SE ridge is flexing underneath it it’s not....

SE ridge is always there, just in different places.  Sometimes you need it to maintain a snowy storm track rather than an offshore one.

 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of March are averaging 49.5degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Month to date is +6.6[48.0].        March should end at  +5.9[48.4].

The first 10 days of April are now averaging   -4[46].

44* here at 7am.             49*-50* during Noon-3pm.       46* at 6pm.       42* by Midnite.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The storm that brought record daily snowfall for March 23 in parts of central New York State and central New England and earlier today in parts of Maine departed. In its wake, today saw temperatures rebound across the region. Temperatures topped out mainly in the middle and upper 50s. Tomorrow will see temperatures hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s as another system brings some rain to the region.

Daily snowfall records for yesterday included:

Albany: 6.1" (old record: 2.7", 2005); Hartford: 3.4" (old record: 2.2", 2005); and, Worcester: 4.2" (old record: 4.1", 1992)

Daily snowfall records for today included: Bangor: 3.4" (old record: 3.1", 1991)

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020.

As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April.

The SOI was -9.67 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.051. That easily surpassed the daily record of +3.176, which was set in 1986.

A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event is in its early stages of development.

On March 23, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.715 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.685.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 77% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

Looks like the 3-6 inch snowfall predictions didn't work out in the Poconos, all I saw there were 1-3" reports.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably chilly highs and higher mins.

and thats how April will end up "warmer" than normal.

 

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like the 3-6 inch snowfall predictions didn't work out in the Poconos, all I saw there were 1-3" reports.

 

Yes. I believe you’re right.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably chilly highs and higher mins.

Just like today.

NYC

TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         45    258 PM  79    1963  53     -8       56
  MINIMUM         40    433 AM  13    1878  38      2       42
  AVERAGE         43                        45     -2       49

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just like today.

NYC

TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         45    258 PM  79    1963  53     -8       56
  MINIMUM         40    433 AM  13    1878  38      2       42
  AVERAGE         43                        45     -2       49

I remember the 79 degrees in 1963...The first warm day of the year...I was 14 and had the world by the you know what...Now the world has me by the you know what...

[rclab]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I remember the 79 degrees in 1963...The first warm day of the year...I was 14 and had the world by the you know what...Now the world has me by the you know what...

Unc., thanks for the memory. I was.an almost 17 year old Junior, going to Fort Hamilton High School. I remember a couple of the ne’er do wells myself included would, on warm spring days, leave school during lunch.(going back was optional) and head for the 92bd Street belt parkway walk over. From that vantage point you had a great view of the skyline north and the under construction Verrazano Bridge south. We thought, as Sinatra would sing, that we had the world on a string. I’ll leave it to you to imagine where that string, now a rope, nearly ended up, “ Days of Innocence days of Confidences” as always ....

[donsutherland1]

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18, that would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002.

As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April.

The SOI was -5.17 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.531. That was above the daily record value of +3.010 from 1976. Recent days have seen the AO surpass records set in 1976 and 1986, both of which featured warmer than normal April temperatures the eastern United States. Based on the latest guidance, it is possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942.

A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event is underway. This will be the last note concerning the stratosphere until autumn, as the seasonal warming has little connection to Arctic blocking or its absence.

On March 24, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.041 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.717.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 90% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, uncle W said:

I remember the 79 degrees in 1963...The first warm day of the year...I was 14 and had the world by the you know what...Now the world has me by the you know what...

The other day the two records were 100 years apart..... 1888 and 1988 lol.  Looks like 1888 had multiple record lows in March in the teens and single digits, even well after the big Blizzard.  Different world then.....

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18, that would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002.

As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April.

The SOI was -5.17 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.531. That was above the daily record value of +3.010 from 1976. Recent days have seen the AO surpass records set in 1976 and 1986, both of which featured warmer than normal April temperatures the eastern United States. Based on the latest guidance, it is possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942.

A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event is underway. This will be the last note concerning the stratosphere until autumn, as the seasonal warming has little connection to Arctic blocking or its absence.

On March 24, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.041 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.717.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 90% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

I saw a new statistic the other day, which is how long the snow season was.  2001-02 has the record because all the measurable snowfall that season occurred within about 16 days lol.  This season  ranks #3 (46 days.)  Looks like we might have missed only the second time that the last freeze was in February by one day.

 

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of March are averaging 52degs., or 5.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.3[47.7].          March should end at  +6.1[48.6].

The first 11 days of April are averaging -2.0[48.0] with only one precipitation event near the 8th.       This is uncharacteristically low,  since the precipitation probability charts show a 41% chance of precipitation on any given day around the April 01 date---highest of the year----lowest is Oct. 15 at 23%.

40* here at 7am.        46* by 10am.         52* by 2pm.       55* at 3pm.     54* at 4pm.       49* by 4:30pm.

[MJO812]

NAO and AO are finally going negative. Just a little too late.

Happens every spring

[doncat]

32° low this am.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

NAO and AO are finally going negative. Just a little too late.

Happens every spring

In the years to come at the March solstice and after a warm rainy winter season we can all join ( at proper distance )  around the fire pit and belt out the song “Tradition” from Fiddler On The Roof”. The blazing fire pit will be welcome as we greet the cold rainy spring. As always.......

( Don’t bother reporting this post, fellow members, I’ll probably self request R Jay and BX to be banned ) 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

NAO and AO are finally going negative. Just a little too late.

Happens every spring

That's only b/c the PV is breaking up-we had zero chance of a -AO or -NAO  this winter with the uber strong PV

[Barman49]

Strong sun making it feel almost 60 but I'm surprised by the amount of people out with winter coats & hats on. Beautiful day.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

[dWave]

Got up to 61 today before the sea breeze. Now a sunny 49. 

[Dan76]

LB Boardwalk closed as of 8pm

[donsutherland1]

Following the clouds and light rain that held down yesterday's temperatures, today's sunshine sent the mercury rising well into the 50s and even some 60s across the region. Overall, the month remains on course to finish on a generally warmer than normal note.

In the southern U.S., numerous daily record high temperatures were set today. Records included: Little Rock: 88° (old record: 85°, 1907); New Orleans: 88° (old record: 84°, 2011); Oklahoma City: 92° (old record: 85°, 1918, 1956, and 1972); Pensacola: 84° (old record: 83°, 2012); Shreveport: 89° (old record: 88°, 2011); and, Tulsa: 94° (old record: 87°, 1918).

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18, that would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002.

As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April.

The SOI was -10.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.505.

Recent days have seen the AO surpass records set in 1976 and 1986, both of which featured warmer than normal April temperatures the eastern United States. Based on the latest guidance, it is possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942.

On March 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.902 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.048.

During the 1981-2019 period, there were two distinct clusters of April outcomes following the MJO's being in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 3 or more consecutive days during the March 20-31 period as has been the case this year. One cluster (1981, 2002, and 2010) featured warmth in the East. The other cluster (1992 and 1996) featured a cool anomaly in the East and a warm anomaly in the West.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 94% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.2°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.