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March 2020


snowman19
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4 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM is 1-2 inches for the HV, doesn't even give the catskills that much, looks like Adirondacks and part of NE do well.

Storm 2 will be extremely dynamic dependent, no cold air in place, the Euro and to some extent the CMC are hinting at dynamics flipping rain to snow in the interior but we know the trend this winter is for models to overestimate storm strength/dynamic cooling in the medium range

I'm hoping for an inch, well, not really but if it has to be sloppy I'm gonna be optimistic. Dynamic storms that have a radical flip aren't uncommon up here with 4/1/97 being the king in the last 20 years.

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The next 8 days are averaging 47.5degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  +7.5[48.5].         Should be about  +6.2[48.3]by the 30th.

41* here at 6am---was 39* during the overnight period.     40* Rain at 7am.

For today's possible snow:    EURO up to 1", CMC a Trace, GFS 0", NAM 0".

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8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Like clockwork -nao for the end of March and to start April. I wouldn’t expect anymore 70-80 degree days anytime soon 

Yeah, back door pattern setting up with plenty of high pressure over New England.

25A50904-BE69-42C3-A971-501E3A30E816.thumb.png.cdb14c7b3d278195ae02a2c867c15b26.png

 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

The Pv is breaking down. Once that happens it was only a matter of time until we got a period of blocking. 

the interesting thing from a statistical point of view is that - NAO seem to be much more common in the spring than they are in the winter.  And they seem to last much longer during spring time too.

I think Chris posted somewhere why the PV was so strong this year.

 

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