Barman49 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Too bad it’s an outlier You're extremely annoying. How is the NAM an outlier when the 3k, rgem, Euro & Canadian show minor accumulations N&W of the city? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 48.5* or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +8.1[49.0]. Should be +6.7[48.8] by the 30th. The first week of April is averaging about +2[51]. The 18Z GFS run is back up to +7[56]. 38* at 6am. 37* at 7am. 36* by 9am. 44* by 1pm. 39* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Morning thoughts... The NAM (area of excessive snowfall) and GFS (least snowfall) continue to be outliers with a late-season winter system. The 6z NAM has shifted the area of heaviest snow northward relative to the 0z run. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely see little or no snow. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State into central New England should pick up 3"-6" snow with some locally higher amounts. My thinking for select sites is as follows: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 1"-3" Scranton: 1"-3" Worcester: 3"-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 12 hours ago, snowman19 said: Too bad it’s an outlier Yep it caved, this is the one winter (I know it's not technically still winter) where literally every single storm has trended worse closer to the event. Still might see some wet flakes in the air briefly tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... The NAM (area of excessive snowfall) and GFS (least snowfall) continue to be outliers with a late-season winter system. The 6z NAM has shifted the area of heaviest snow northward relative to the 0z run. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely see little or no snow. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State into central New England should pick up 3"-6" snow with some locally higher amounts. My thinking for select sites is as follows: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 1"-3" Scranton: 1"-3" Worcester: 3"-6" Looks reasonable, I am not even sure Poughkeepsie will get 1-3 now that the models show a more quicker mid level warming than before but should be a frozen mess in the HV for part of the day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Looks reasonable, I am not even sure Poughkeepsie will get 1-3 now that the models show a more quicker mid level warming than before but should be a frozen mess in the HV for part of the day tomorrow summarily I don't know if the winter storm watches BGM issued here will stick...they were aiming them more for higher elevations but if the warming comes in quicker then all will lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 I'm thinking 1-2 inches well N and W of city in valley locations. Elevation will be your friend with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 The 80 on Friday was probably the warmest of the month. MJO 2-3 and -NAO should keep the warmest temperatures to our south. The interior continues to be the place to be for snows like we seen the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Yep it caved, this is the one winter (I know it's not technically still winter) where literally every single storm has trended worse closer to the event. Still might see some wet flakes in the air briefly tomorrow morning Huge mid-level warm push on all models now. The new HREF run has nothing at all for snow accumulations south of 84 and it cut back amounts even north of 84. The boundary layer is warmer as well. NAM was way too cold once again. This is nothing more than a white rain event for most of the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 13 hours ago, Barman49 said: You're extremely annoying. How is the NAM an outlier when the 3k, rgem, Euro & Canadian show minor accumulations N&W of the city? The NAM caved to the warmer guidance. It was a cold outlier all along. You do know what an outlier is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Huge mid-level warm push on all models now. The new HREF run has nothing at all for snow accumulations south of 84 and it cut back amounts even north of 84. The boundary layer is warmer as well. NAM was way too cold once again. This is nothing more than a white rain event for most of the metro area Yea City may be all rain, NW Suburbs are white rain to rain, north of I84 may see some accumulation but probably not much in lower elevations Good Call again although in this winter (if we call it that?) predicting it to trend warmer is pretty much the easy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 The NAM caved to the warmer guidance. It was a cold outlier all along. You do know what an outlier is right?I don't. Please explain. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: summarily I don't know if the winter storm watches BGM issued here will stick...they were aiming them more for higher elevations but if the warming comes in quicker then all will lose. Catskills still look like a good spot for this, could be very elevation dependent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Catskills still look like a good spot for this, could be very elevation dependent event. It's going to be 100%. Lower elevations probably 3-5 *if* it can stick well given late March sun/mixing; elevations >1500 feet will do best with probable 5-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: It's going to be 100%. Lower elevations probably 3-5 *if* it can stick well given late March sun/mixing; elevations >1500 feet will do best with probable 5-8. Would probably need to be near Albany to have any chance at 3-5 in lower elevations, anywhere in this subforum would be 1-3 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 I don't think this was necessary needed because all models are shirking away from heavier snows. Still largely elevation dependent. 660 WWUS41 KBGM 221744 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 NYZ057-062-231745- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0005.200323T0700Z-200324T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0004.200323T0900Z-200324T0400Z/ Delaware-Sullivan- Including the cities of Delhi, Walton, and Monticello 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches across elevations higher than 1400 feet. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys. * WHERE...Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel. Also, weight of heavy wet snow could produce some power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Would probably need to be near Albany to have any chance at 3-5 in lower elevations, anywhere in this subforum would be 1-3 at best Agreed, the new Euro is basically a total non event until north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: I don't think this was necessary needed because all models are shirking away from heavier snows. Still largely elevation dependent. 660 WWUS41 KBGM 221744 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 NYZ057-062-231745- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0005.200323T0700Z-200324T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0004.200323T0900Z-200324T0400Z/ Delaware-Sullivan- Including the cities of Delhi, Walton, and Monticello 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches across elevations higher than 1400 feet. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys. * WHERE...Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel. Also, weight of heavy wet snow could produce some power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. It absolutely is needed. 5-9 inches of heavy snow can cause problems and it is heavily elevation dependent like the warning says. I'm 20 miles north of 84 in valley and expecting no more than 2 inches. 3-4 inches possible as you get closer to Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: I don't think this was necessary needed because all models are shirking away from heavier snows. Still largely elevation dependent. 660 WWUS41 KBGM 221744 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 NYZ057-062-231745- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0005.200323T0700Z-200324T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0004.200323T0900Z-200324T0400Z/ Delaware-Sullivan- Including the cities of Delhi, Walton, and Monticello 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches across elevations higher than 1400 feet. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys. * WHERE...Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel. Also, weight of heavy wet snow could produce some power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Most of the models are still showing heavy snow especially for the western catskills, think the warning is legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Don't look at the weenie maps if you live NW of I287 for Wednesday on the Euro lol, we'll see how long until it caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It absolutely is needed. 5-9 inches of heavy snow can cause problems and it is heavily elevation dependent like the warning says. I'm 20 miles north of 84 in valley and expecting no more than 2 inches. 3-4 inches possible as you get closer to Albany. I get that, was simply pointing out how models seem to be distancing themsleves away from that idea. Like you I'm 20-30 miles north of 84 (at ~800) and am also only expecting 2-3" before likely mixing (or even a full changeover, which looks likelier) cuts down totals. MSV north looks good. 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Most of the models are still showing heavy snow especially for the western catskills, think the warning is legit Largely elevation dependent, but yeah, same points as provided before. They have their reasons and I respect them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Most of the models are still showing heavy snow especially for the western catskills, think the warning is legit I agree. Anyone above 1000' and N of 84 should see good snows. Here at 850' & 1 mile N of 84 im expecting 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Don't look at the weenie maps if you live NW of I287 for Wednesday on the Euro lol, we'll see how long until it caves Bogus. It’s the same thing it’s been doing at day 4-5 over and over, like this coming storm. It was showing a foot of snow in Rockland County tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Two storm total off 12z euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 NAM is 1-2 inches for the HV, doesn't even give the catskills that much, looks like Adirondacks and part of NE do well. 37 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Two storm total off 12z euro Storm 2 will be extremely dynamic dependent, no cold air in place, the Euro and to some extent the CMC are hinting at dynamics flipping rain to snow in the interior but we know the trend this winter is for models to overestimate storm strength/dynamic cooling in the medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Looks reasonable, I am not even sure Poughkeepsie will get 1-3 now that the models show a more quicker mid level warming than before but should be a frozen mess in the HV for part of the day tomorrow It's looking like snowfall amounts in the vicinity of I-84 will likely need to be trimmed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2020 Author Share Posted March 22, 2020 55 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM is 1-2 inches for the HV, doesn't even give the catskills that much, looks like Adirondacks and part of NE do well. Storm 2 will be extremely dynamic dependent, no cold air in place, the Euro and to some extent the CMC are hinting at dynamics flipping rain to snow in the interior but we know the trend this winter is for models to overestimate storm strength/dynamic cooling in the medium range How many times does no cold air in place with rain to start out flip over to snow and accumulate in the middle of winter work out in our area, let alone a weak storm during the day at the end of March? Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Most of the models are still showing heavy snow especially for the western catskills, think the warning is legit This is an 18" Slide Mountain Summit Spring Special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 41 minutes ago, snowman19 said: How many times does no cold air in place with rain to start out flip over to snow and accumulate in the middle of winter work out in our area, let alone a weak storm during the day at the end of March? Good luck Depends what you are referring to as our area, it definitely happens for the interior zones. I would lean that it's rain to slop for the interior areas so I agree I wouldn't expect an accumulating snow event for lower elevations in the subforum from either event at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Cooler air remains in place. Late tomorrow into early Tuesday, a storm will track eastward. As a result, parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey, across central New York State into southern New England, will likely receive a snowfall. Parts of that area will likely pick up 3"-6" snow with some locally higher amounts. Final snowfall estimates: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 2"-4" Boston: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 2" or less Scranton: 2" or less Worcester: 3"-6" Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -6.51 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.416. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event will likely begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.680 (RMM). The March 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.725. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 80% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.2°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. Such an outcome would favor a warmer than normal April in much of the East. The CFSv2 has been shifting in that direction in recent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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