uncle W Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 44 minutes ago, doncat said: Wow boring weather, no sports, too many worries...What the hell happened? thank God I'm building a train set...I started at the right time... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 29 minutes ago, uncle W said: thank God I'm building a train set...I started at the right time... Traditional Lionel type layout or actual models from scratch? As always .... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Today saw temperatures run somewhat below normal across the region. However, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely late this week or the beginning of the weekend. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -3.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.705. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.422 (RMM). The March 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.943. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 62% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 47.5°, which would rank as the 8th warmest March on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Snowing out. looks to be around 0.5 or so on the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 On 3/15/2020 at 8:46 AM, donsutherland1 said: So far. Things could change, especially if things evolve toward the rumored La Niña (IMO, it’s too soon to reach that conclusion) vs. the El Niño that evolved in 2002. if we were evolving towards a La Nina wouldn't that make the summer even hotter? But it would mean a much less impressive winter next time.... Looks like we have the coldest temp of March coming for next weekend? I see the forecasts for mid 20s lows even down at the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Today saw temperatures run somewhat below normal across the region. However, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely late this week or the beginning of the weekend. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -3.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.705. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.422 (RMM). The March 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.943. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 62% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 47.5°, which would rank as the 8th warmest March on record. Don, how low does this winter rank on the winter severity index? I would think it was near the bottom, I can only think of 1972-73 and 2001-02 being lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is +8.2[48.3]. Should be about +6.2[47.5] by the 25th. The last 15 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS)47.2[41/53]. March should end near +5.2[47.7]. April 01 has increased by 41 degrees! from yesterday's run. Hope this model is not involved in any way with making a CV19 vaccine. lol 43* here at 7am. 50* by Noon. Made it to 57* around 5:30pm. 53* at 8am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Nice little half inch on the ground. @Animal how much did you end up with? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Earlier today, parts of New England saw some snowfall. Snowfall amounts included: Boston: Trace; Burlington: Trace; Providence: Trace; and, Worcester: 0.3" Nevertheless, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely late this week or the beginning of the weekend. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -14.98 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.878. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.309 (RMM). The March 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.423. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 60% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 47.5°, which would rank as the 8th warmest March on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 14 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, how low does this winter rank on the winter severity index? I would think it was near the bottom, I can only think of 1972-73 and 2001-02 being lower. IMO, it's among the 5 worst (low snowfall and warmth). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 8:43 AM, donsutherland1 said: This might be useful for illustrating the magnitude of the GFS's cold bias. For comparison, you noted that the 6z GFS has a 3/1-17 mean temperature of 43.0 degrees for NYC. The multi-model blend I use in my sensitivity analyses shows 44.4 degrees for the same period. The March 1-17 mean temperature in New York City was 48.2°. The GFS, which was 1.4° cooler than the model consensus was farthest away (largest cool bias). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 35° here this am...Hope all are well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +8.0[48.2]. Should be +6.7[47.8] by the 26th. The last 14 days of March are averaging (06Z, GFS) 49*[40/58]. If so, March would end at +6.0[48.5].----5th. Place. 44* here at 7am. 46* by 9am. 48*-49* between 1pm-3pm. CHECK OUT THIS LATE RUN INSANITY---EVEN CRAZIER THAN WHAT IT HAD FOR APRIL 01. 336 Wed 04/01 12Z 53 ° 36 ° 34 ° NW 18 NW 47 WNW 34 0.01 0.00 540 544 -21 ° 2 ° -4 ° 1004 71 % 1 ° 348 Thu 04/02 00Z 33 ° 24 ° 22 ° NW 20 NW 43 NW 47 0.00 0.00 502 511 -38 ° -18 ° -12 ° 1010 69 % -20 ° 360 Thu 04/02 12Z 19 ° 16 ° 15 ° NW 18 NW 36 NW 40 0.00 0.00 498 503 -37 ° -22 ° -16 ° 1006 98 % -24 ° 372 Fri 04/03 00Z 25 ° 22 ° 22 ° NNW 7 NNW 16 NW 25 0.03 0.00 507 505 -34 ° -16 ° -11 ° 998 100 % -19 ° 384 Fri 04/03 12Z 20 ° 15 ° 13 ° N 13 N 25 N 27 0.00 0.00 502 505 -34 ° -22 ° -16 ° 1003 76 % -23 ° Max Temp Min Temp 850 Temp Max 850 Temp Min 500 Height Max 500 Height Min Thickness Max Thickness Min 62 °F 15 °F 14 °C -22 °C 568 503 565 498 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Earlier today, parts of New England saw some snowfall. Snowfall amounts included: Boston: Trace; Burlington: Trace; Providence: Trace; and, Worcester: 0.3" Nevertheless, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely late this week or the beginning of the weekend. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -14.98 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.878. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.309 (RMM). The March 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.423. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 60% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 47.5°, which would rank as the 8th warmest March on record. too bad snowfall records dont go back just a little further, Don, didn't NYC record 90" to 100" in the mid 1860s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: too bad snowfall records dont go back just a little further, Don, didn't NYC record 90" to 100" in the mid 1860s? I believe that was 1867-68. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 The warm front should blast through Friday morning given stout SW'rly flow. With enough sunshine, these 850 temps could bring highs to the low 80s for parts of NJ. Soundings suggest some cirrus around, so we may top out just shy of 80 in the city. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2020 Author Share Posted March 18, 2020 13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: IMO, it's among the 5 worst (low snowfall and warmth). This will be an all time top warmest and least snowy winter ever. It has earned its place in history right next to 72-73, 97-98, 01-02, 11-12. 91-92 was no bargain either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: This will be an all time top warmest and least snowy winter ever. It has earned its place in history right next to 72-73, 97-98, 01-02, 11-12. 91-92 was no bargain either Current events certainly put the frustration a lot of us would be feeling about the way winter played out into perspective. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 6 hours ago, purduewx80 said: The warm front should blast through Friday morning given stout SW'rly flow. With enough sunshine, these 850 temps could bring highs to the low 80s for parts of NJ. Soundings suggest some cirrus around, so we may top out just shy of 80 in the city. maybe even a severe threat with a lot of shear and marginal cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: This will be an all time top warmest and least snowy winter ever. It has earned its place in history right next to 72-73, 97-98, 01-02, 11-12. 91-92 was no bargain either Agree This to me is the worst winter ever after everyone predicted a snowy winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Agree This to me is the worst winter ever after everyone predicted a snowy winter. Most bailed in mid January though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 On 3/16/2020 at 7:52 PM, rclab said: Traditional Lionel type layout or actual models from scratch? As always .... n gauge on a two by four board...I'm into it for about $700 so far...the track is done but not the buildings and greenery...that's another 400 or more... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 55 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree This to me is the worst winter ever after everyone predicted a snowy winter. trust the dr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 I'll put my winter forecast in a football analogy...the game was close for the first three quarters before getting blown out in the 4th quarter...a loss is a loss...a bust is a bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Don or Uncle, sorry but Google is letting me down....table on top 10 warmest winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Don or Uncle, sorry but Google is letting me down....table on top 10 warmest winters? https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldseasons.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 1 hour ago, uncle W said: n gauge on a two by four board...I'm into it for about $700 so far...the track is done but not the buildings and greenery...that's another 400 or more... It sounds great, please post pictures when it’s complete. I have a closet full of Lionel 1940’s through the mid 60’s trains 0 and 0/27. From early freight to 50,’s Santa Fe diesel passenger to 60’s Cold War inspired pieces. I believe I have an old metal ho freight set and 60+ year old action pieces like the milk and Cattle cars. Ive been meaning to catalogue and display my collection. If I procrastinate any longer my legatees may do it for me. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, rclab said: It sounds great, please post pictures when it’s complete. I have a closet full of Lionel 1940’s through the mid 60’s trains 0 and 0/27. From early freight to 50,’s Santa Fe diesel passenger to 60’s Cold War inspired pieces. I believe I have an old metal ho freight set and 60+ year old action pieces like the milk and Cattle cars. Ive been meaning to catalogue and display my collection. If I procrastinate any longer my legatees may do it for me. As always ..... they could be worth a lot of money...I remember my first train...it was made by marx...a cheap version of lionel but worth just as much today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: And? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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