Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 minute ago, golfer07840 said: It was nice not to have a big salt build up on the cars and roads this winter. Nor were there many of those big ugly snow banks that just collect dirt and car soot on the side of the roads. from a hobbyist/snow lover point of view the winter sucked, but practically speaking, no salt, no snow days for the kids, lower heating bills, no snow to clear etc...that part was a plus 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 every time this signal shows up we break records 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Hopefully this wave gets stronger or stays intact 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Spring leaf out is 30 days early in NYC. I saw a Weeping Willow that was already leafing out this morning, they’re always among the first to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2020 Author Share Posted March 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: I don’t see a cooler pattern in the spring. Weeklies keep the torch going into April. This -epo in January would give us the same results with the -pna. enjoy the weather and put this winter behind you already. I can’t believe the EPO is still being hyped for cold lol it’s spring lol and like you said -EPO with RNA is warm. It’s a torch right into April 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Today has ended up being a low-key nice day. Cool but not cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 ewr hasn't seen 1" of rain in 24 hrs since december 17. there's a slight chance the streak ends friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: I can’t believe the EPO is still being hyped for cold lol it’s spring lol and like you said -EPO with RNA is warm. It’s a torch right into April Expecting that the forecast EPO- will lead to sustained cold will likely lead to more disappointment in a disappointing winter/opening to spring. Given the impact the sustained strongly positive AO has had on the atmosphere, one will likely see a continued tendency for ridging and above normal temperatures in the East during the March 11-25 period overall despite the forecast development of a negative or strongly negative EPO. One saw such circumstances during the same period in 1990 when the EPO averaged -1.000 or below following the extreme AO+ for February. Overall, March remains on course to be much warmer than normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Expecting that the forecast EPO- will lead to sustained cold will likely lead to more disappointment in a disappointing winter/opening to spring. Given the impact the sustained strongly positive AO has had on the atmosphere, one will likely see a continued tendency for ridging and above normal temperatures in the East during the March 11-25 period overall despite the forecast development of a negative or strongly negative EPO. One saw such circumstances during the same period in 1990 when the EPO averaged -1.000 or below following the extreme AO+ for February. Overall, March remains on course to be much warmer than normal. Let's hope that hold into April-nothing worse than cold/drizzle with blocking in April like last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +1.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.006. The previous daily record was +3.296, which was set in 1977. There are now some emerging hints that a "final warming" seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through March 19. On March 10, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.327 (RMM). The March 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.499. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 47.5degs., or about 6 or 7 degs. AN. Month to date is +9.0[48.4]. Should be +7.0[48.0] by the 20th. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z, GFS) 46.5degs.[40/53], or about 2degs. AN. A colder run, but snow less anyway. 47* here at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 It was a pretty sunrise this morning. Just couldn't get over to the beach this morning. Low this morning was 29* By the way, Gas is $1.99/gal in Old Bridge, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 On 3/6/2020 at 10:36 PM, jm1220 said: That's why +AO, crazy progressive patterns are the worst. They cause warm cutters but also late developing/suppressed storms like this and the one that recently hit NC/VA and out to sea. When storms do form to our south the fast jet shoves them out to sea. Phasing happens too late or not at all. It all just comes together to shaft our area time after time. Needless to say some small tweaks could've caused a monster for our area. Instead we have some light rain and some kinda mangled snowflakes when you look at the streetlight. shades of 2001-02 (and 1972-73 too) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 On 3/6/2020 at 11:04 PM, golfer07840 said: My favorite part of that day? Being at work, seeing the snow falling and it looking like January and having WFAN on the radio and Mike and the Mad Dog are just laughing while watching the game on tv and killing Steinbrenner for not canceling the game. I feel pretty confident that won't be an issue this year. that was one of the most amazing games to watch, I loved every second of it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 On 3/10/2020 at 4:03 PM, bluewave said: This is going to be a warm spring -EPO pattern like we had in May 2015. I wonder if we'll see another hot streak of summers like we did in the early 2010s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 On 3/6/2020 at 8:22 PM, Gravity Wave said: Great winters in that stretch but some of those summers were absolutely awful. Although Dewsaster 2018 can compete with any of those. As for Floyd, that was the second weather event I remember from growing up after the 1998 Labor Day derecho. The small lake next to my elementary school tripled in size and merged with a nearby creek to force the only rain-induced early dismissal of my school career. I loved the contrast between the winters and summers, the high dewpoint summers we are having now are definitely the worst, I'd much rather have the high heat low humidity summers that actually feel refreshing because the air is so dry. I think we're headed towards more of those summers, especially with the 11 year cycle peaking again next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Epo is going to be crashing. Where the hell was this during the winter ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 I am fine with an warm spring if there is no more snow coming. Plus, maybe the warmth would help with the Coronavirus threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 12, 2020 Author Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Epo is going to be crashing. Where the hell was this during the winter ? It’s still going to be a torch here though. Severe -PNA. The result would have been the same even in winter. Huge SE ridge pattern, -EPO doesn’t automatically mean cold East as we are about to see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Euro MJO is in the cold phases for late month. I had a feeling this was going to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 58 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro MJO is in the cold phases for late month. I had a feeling this was going to happen. Then what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 58 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro MJO is in the cold phases for late month. I had a feeling this was going to happen. Ok Joe Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 Just now, Dan76 said: Then what? He’s just parroting Joe Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: He’s just parroting Joe Bastardi Yep he said that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep he said that Gonna be a long 9 months coming up before we can seriously consider snowstorms again.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Of course now. Smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 A system will bring some rain to the region tonight into tomorrow. Afterward readings will surge into the 60s before modestly cooler air overspreads the region. An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +2.11 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.580. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.111, which was set in 1994. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 11, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.191 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.323. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The probability that March 2020 will be among the 10 warmest March cases has increased further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 46.5degs., or about 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +8.7[48.2]. Should be about +7.0[47.5] by the 21st. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z, GFS) 50*[42/58], or about 5degs. AN. EURO Weeklies are 6 straight weeks AN. CANSIPS has 12 straight months of intensifying heat everywhere. Well, maybe the Heat will get the coronavirus before either it or the heat gets us. 48* here at 7am with FOG---<0.1mile, rainy. 49* by 10am, same FOG, no rain. 55* by Noon, fog almost gone. 60* by 2pm with sun/clouds. 65* at 3pm, sun, breezy. 68* at 3:30pm. 71* by 5pm. 60* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Some heavier rain for a change this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 0.22" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now