Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: Don't look now but it looks like we're getting our -AO and big time blocking just in time to ruin spring. What else is new? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: Don't look now but it looks like we're getting our -AO and big time blocking just in time to ruin spring. We are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: Don't look now but it looks like we're getting our -AO and big time blocking just in time to ruin spring. And negative epo Like clockwork 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are? Yep eventually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Another front comes through today with light amounts of rainfall. This is currently the 6th driest start to the year in NYC for the last 30 years. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Mar 9 Missing Count 1 2002-03-09 3.81 0 2 1992-03-09 4.10 0 3 2009-03-09 4.66 0 4 2000-03-09 4.93 0 5 2012-03-09 5.03 0 6 2020-03-09 5.10 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another front comes through today with light amounts of rainfall. This is currently the 6th driest start to the year in NYC for the last 30 years. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Mar 9 Missing Count 1 2002-03-09 3.81 0 2 1992-03-09 4.10 0 3 2009-03-09 4.66 0 4 2000-03-09 4.93 0 5 2012-03-09 5.03 0 6 2020-03-09 5.10 0 If this continues into summer we could see 100s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And negative epo Like clockwork The difference this year is even if that happens we'll have a predominately negative PNA so would expect a warmer outcome with that SE ridge flexing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The difference this year is even if that happens we'll have a predominately negative PNA so would expect a warmer outcome with that SE ridge flexing. It would probably mean cold for New England behind the same old gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It would probably mean cold for New England behind the same old gradient I'd agree-that SE ridge is incredibly strong on the Euro and EPS. However, LOL if those 2 (NAO and EPO) show up April 1st....amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I could get use to these warm temperatures 65 currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Temperatures again soared into the 60s across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures is underway. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Winter 2019-2020 became the 9th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through March 10. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 6.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 88% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1991-92 with 12.6" seasonal snowfall. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -7.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.597. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 17, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 9, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.498 (RMM). The March 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.904. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 48degs., or about 5 or 6 degrees AN. Month to date is +9.0[48.2]. Should be about +7.0[48.1] by the 19th. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z, GFS) 49.5* [say 44/56] or about 6 or 7 degrees AN. 46* here at 6am. 45* by 8am. 51* by 11am. 54* by Noon. Got to 56* near 4pm, but high was back at midnight, 59*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Lost in all this virus hysteria is how extraordinarily warm it continues to be. At some point, during a slow news day, some local channel is going to realize it has been 5 degrees above normal for 3 months straight 41F Of interest, on my arrival into JFK the other day, I worked in LGA weather into my PA. First time I ever did that. The JFK weather wasnt representative of the weather at the destination. JFK was at 8C and LGA was 19C...an astronomical difference. Of course, the light SW wind off the water will do that in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 The was just the warmest first 10 days of March on record for NYC at 48.2 degrees and +9.0. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 10 Missing Count 1 2020-03-10 48.2 0 2 2000-03-10 47.9 0 3 2004-03-10 47.4 0 - 1979-03-10 47.4 0 5 1964-03-10 47.1 0 6 1878-03-10 47.0 0 7 1973-03-10 46.9 0 8 1974-03-10 46.8 0 9 1921-03-10 46.4 0 10 2016-03-10 46.2 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Last night was perfect out. Low 60s until around 11pm. Had a bonfire, and made some burgers too. Another very nice day in store again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Lost in all this virus hysteria is how extraordinarily warm it continues to be. At some point, during a slow news day, some local channel is going to realize it has been 5 degrees above normal for 3 months straight 41F Of interest, on my arrival into JFK the other day, I worked in LGA weather into my PA. First time I ever did that. The JFK weather wasnt representative of the weather at the destination. JFK was at 8C and LGA was 19C...an astronomical difference. Of course, the light SW wind off the water will do that in March Where are you still flying to and from? Are you seeing the empty planes that my friends that do a lot of business travel are talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 47 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Lost in all this virus hysteria is how extraordinarily warm it continues to be. At some point, during a slow news day, some local channel is going to realize it has been 5 degrees above normal for 3 months straight 41F Of interest, on my arrival into JFK the other day, I worked in LGA weather into my PA. First time I ever did that. The JFK weather wasnt representative of the weather at the destination. JFK was at 8C and LGA was 19C...an astronomical difference. Of course, the light SW wind off the water will do that in March Same deal here along the CT shoreline-parts of my town on the sound can be 5-8 degrees cooler than the northern part of town just 3 miles away. - crazy warm pattern continues-if warm weather helps kill the virus (unknown for sure) we're in business in that regard! SE ridge from hell continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Models are forecasting .5-1.00 of rain for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Models are forecasting .5-1.00 of rain for Friday. hate to say it but we could use a good soaking-very dry here with lots of dead brush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: hate to say it but we could use a good soaking-very dry here with lots of dead brush Agree. My newly planted Leyland Cypresses will enjoy it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Local landscape companies here already doing spring cleanups-about 2-3 weeks earlier than usual 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Local landscape companies here already doing spring cleanups-about 2-3 weeks earlier than usual Spring leaf out is 30 days early in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9503 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Local landscape companies here already doing spring cleanups-about 2-3 weeks earlier than usual Guess they want to get out there before the economy is buried completely and they’re out of business. Who’s ready for the depression? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Local landscape companies here already doing spring cleanups-about 2-3 weeks earlier than usual Good for them. I’m sure they welcome a early spring after a completely snowless winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good for them. I’m sure they welcome a early spring after a completely snowless winter Epo is tumbling Typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Epo is tumbling Typical It means absolutely nothing for us with a -pna. Enjoy the warmth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: It means absolutely nothing for us with a -pna. Enjoy the warmth Did I say it means anything? It will when the pattern eventually turns cooler during spring. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Did I say it means anything? It will when the pattern eventually turns cooler during spring. I don’t see a cooler pattern in the spring. Weeklies keep the torch going into April. This -epo in January would give us the same results with the -pna. enjoy the weather and put this winter behind you already. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Good for them. I’m sure they welcome a early spring after a completely snowless winter yeah there was only one plowable event here (1/18) other than some salt/calcium Chloride applications in Dec, that was it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yeah there was only one plowable event here (1/18) other than some salt/calcium Chloride applications in Dec, that was it. It was nice not to have a big salt build up on the cars and roads this winter. Nor were there many of those big ugly snow banks that just collect dirt and car soot on the side of the roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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