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March 2020


snowman19
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Talk about beautiful out! Just finished up a three-hour, 140 mile drive down the emptier roads in the Pine Barrens. Music playing, roof down, and a quick stop for ice cream, too. 

It reached 74 here. Just to put it into perspective, it was only 75 down by family in Marco Island, FL

We might get a pretty sunset with these high clouds filtering in

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1 minute ago, CarLover014 said:

Talk about beautiful out! Just finished up a three-hour, 140 mile drive down the emptier roads in the Pine Barrens. Music playing, roof down, and a quick stop for ice cream, too. 

It reached 74 here. Just to put it into perspective, it was only 75 down by family in Marco Island, FL

We might get a pretty sunset with these high clouds filtering in

those roads in the pine barrens are indeed empty-no civilization anywhere-kind of nice in a way

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13 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

One or two days of anomalous warmth does not prove the climate is changing (even though it is). Records today from 2016 will be hard to beat - EWR: 82. NYC: 77. LGA: 75. JFK: 67. 

I never said it did.

Observing the last 40 years in the HV and the Northeast in general makes a good case for it though. You can throw in all of the thousands of examples in the rest of the world too during this time period. Yet there will always be people like JB that insist it's all in our heads.

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Temperatures soared to much above normal levels today. High temperatures included: Albany: 74°; Boston: 72°; Bridgeport: 62° (old record: 61°, 2017); Hartford: 74°; Islip: 63°; New York City: 71°; Newark: 73°; Philadelphia: 71°; and, Providence: 72° (old record: 70°, 2016).

An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures is underway. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -3.16 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.830.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 17, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March.

On March 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.894 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.143.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

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The next 8 days are averaging 48.5degs., or about 5 or 6 degrees AN.

Month to date is +7.8[46.9].         Should be about +7.0[47.6] by the 18th.

The next 17 days are averaging (06Z, GFS) 51.5degs.[45/58], about 8degs. AN.    No snow. 

 2020031000_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR   

52* here at 7am.        54* by 10am.        57* by 11am.     60* by 1pm.      Basically stayed between 60*----62* all afternoon till at least now, 9pm.

 

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43 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Gorgeous sunrise this morning. I think we'll get another 70* day today20200310071309_IMG_4141.thumb.jpg.96aba58d366a3c9cc7f00c945b6b7279.jpg

Thank you CL014. When I feel the personal shadows growing deeper and longer a view of what is natural and beautiful brings me back into the light. As always .....

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Really hoping this first line of showers breaks up before sliding over me. I left my roof home this morning so I could fit some gear in the hatch, where my roof normally would go. Not that it will be the end of the world if it rains a little (I have waterproof seat covers, towels covering the electronics) but I'd rather not drive in a swimming pool. 

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2 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Wonder if that fire was caused by a “hotbox” (rail car issue along the train tracks) the top photo shows a long line of small fires along the train tracks in the fires early stages.

I wondered that too but also read a social media post that it started with a downed power line but my first thought was also a railroad issue as a downed power line doesn't jive with all of those individual areas of smoke .

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2 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Wonder if that fire was caused by a “hotbox” (rail car issue along the train tracks) the top photo shows a long line of small fires along the train tracks in the fires early stages.

I've seen a couple of places that said it was a hot box problem. The pics from this morning are ugly.

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