bluewave Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Had a brief heavy downpour and .35 total rainfall. Pretty typical for 2020. Looks like a warm afternoon coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9503 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Well, at least we ended up with a nice afternoon at the end of this heavy, miserable week. Feels great out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 67 here, it’d be nice to squeeze out a 70. 0.70” event total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 71 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Had a brief heavy downpour and .35 total rainfall. Pretty typical for 2020. Looks like a warm afternoon coming up. Feels humid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 39 minutes ago, Cfa said: 67 here, it’d be nice to squeeze out a 70. 0.70” event total. have you had 70 yet? I think this is warmer than what Monday was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: have you had 70 yet? I think this is warmer than what Monday was! Nope, my highest so far is 68, three times...today, Monday, and January 12th. Have you hit 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 68 here incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, Cfa said: Nope, my highest so far is 68, three times...today, Monday, and January 12th. Have you hit 70? Not yet..... 67 so far.... I mean before today! Now it's 72 with a NW wind gusting to 32 mph..... if this was July we'd hit 100 at the coast with low humidity, my perfect weather :-) Still a far cry from the very memorable 85 on this date in March 1990. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Feels humid lol It really does. The dewpoints will take another big drop with the near record March high pressure in a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Not yet..... 67 so far.... I mean before today! Now it's 72 with a NW wind gusting to 32 mph..... if this was July we'd hit 100 at the coast with low humidity, my perfect weather :-) Still a far cry from the very memorable 85 on this date in March 1990. 71 now here, finally! And it feels like it’s been quite a long time since we’ve had dry(-ish) heat, with humidity it’s like we always fall just shy of 100, though the heat index sometimes goes way beyond 100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Cfa said: 71 now here, finally! And it feels like it’s been quite a long time since we’ve had dry(-ish) heat, with humidity it’s like we always fall just shy of 100, though the heat index sometimes goes way beyond 100. that was 2013, we had a streak of 100 degree summers from the historic 2010 thru 2013. I feel like we're getting back into that pattern, especially since next summer (2021) will be part of the 11 year cycle of hot/dry summers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: It really does. The dewpoints will take another big drop with the near record March high pressure in a few days. That will be refreshing! Will we see another heat spike when that High moves offshore, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Made it to 71 by 5pm here. CSFv2 shows a deep freeze for April and May. Troughs so deep, we will spend all summer long digging out from under them. Meanwhile the CANSIPS is Blazing Saddles for the next 12 months everywhere. U Can WYA with them both. Re: bluewave's post below, I pointed out: Posted March 5 FLASH! 12Z GFS shows first 80-Degree Day for the 19th!. Still has some snow near the 12th-13th. It has 14 of the next 17 days up to at least 50. The average T for the period 52*[44/59] . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Ahead of a push of modestly cooler air, temperatures soared to much above normal levels in much of the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 75°; Islip: 65°; New York City: 70°; Newark: 72°; Philadelphia: 74°; Richmond: 80°; and, Washington, DC: 77°. Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -0.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.722. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 12, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.032 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.190. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Made it to 70° here yesterday with 0.32" rain in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 45degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is +9.3[48.9]. Should be about +6.6[47.4] by the 22nd. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z, GFS) 48degs.[41/55] or about 3 or 4 degrees AN. March should end up near 5th. Place at this rate---48.4, pending the 31st. and how this 17-day period verfies. Going in the right direction?: 44* here at 7am. 50* by 1pm. 52* at 2pm. 53* at 2:30pm. 55* at 3pm. Reached 58* near 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 first 80 possible friday 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until March 20-22 when another short push of cold air occurs. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +0.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.678. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 13, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.129 (RMM). The March 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.025. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 On 3/13/2020 at 7:57 PM, donsutherland1 said: Ahead of a push of modestly cooler air, temperatures soared to much above normal levels in much of the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 75°; Islip: 65°; New York City: 70°; Newark: 72°; Philadelphia: 74°; Richmond: 80°; and, Washington, DC: 77°. Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -0.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.722. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 12, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.032 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.190. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. seems to be similar to the progression in 2001-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +9.2[49.0]. Should be +7.7[48.4] by the 23rd. The last 17 days of March are averaging (06Z, GFS) 46.4degs.[40/53], or +1.5deg. If so, then March would end at +5.0[47.5]--8th. Place. 44* here at 6am. 47* by Noon. Topped at 54* near 4:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +9.2[49.0]. Should be +7.7[48.4] by the 23rd. 44* here at 6am. Amazing almost uninterrupted warm stretch since 12/22 give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: seems to be similar to the progression in 2001-02 So far. Things could change, especially if things evolve toward the rumored La Niña (IMO, it’s too soon to reach that conclusion) vs. the El Niño that evolved in 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions are continuing to experience drier than normal conditions. Such conditions are likely to persist through the remainder of March. Year-to-date precipitation amounts include: Allentown: 6.33" (0.81" below normal); Baltimore: 6.78" (0.80" below normal); Boston: 5.04" (3.41" below normal); Islip: 6.71" (2.13" below normal); New York City: 5.39" (3.16" below normal); Newark: 5.17" (3.00" below normal); Philadelphia: 5.98" (1.26" below normal); Poughkeepsie: 3.95" (3.32" below normal); Providence: 5.21" (4.01" below normal); and, Washington, DC: 6.51" (0.33" below normal). Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until March 20-22 when another short push of cold air occurs. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +4.07 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.032. There remain hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 14, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.941 (RMM). The March 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.130. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +8.9[48.9]. Should be +7.2[48.0] by the 24th. The last 16 days of March are averaging (06Z, GFS)47.1degs.[41/54]. March should end at +5.5[48.0]. For the record, it claims on April 01 the T will not reach 32*-----an AF'sJ----it says 33* REALLY. 36* at 7am. 43* by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Looking toasty for Friday... Just hoping it stays dry for most of the day. Id love to go and do another cruise day We started our first day of these so-called, virtual school real-time days today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 5 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +8.9[48.9]. Should be +7.2[48.0] by the 24th. The last 16 days of March are averaging (06Z, GFS)47.1degs.[41/54]. March should end at +5.5[48.0]. For the record, it claims on April 01 the T will not reach 32*-----an AF'sJ----it says 33* REALLY. 36* at 7am. Please tell me that's just cold bias? Not that it matters, we are all stuck inside for April anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 the end of the month and the beginning of April could get wintry...wintry meaning sub 32 degree mornings or a little slushy snowfall... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, uncle W said: the end of the month and the beginning of April could get wintry...wintry meaning sub 32 degree mornings or a little slushy snowfall... With the growing season taking off we really could do without that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Wow boring weather, no sports, too many worries...What the hell happened? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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