March 2020

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, golfer07840 said:

Yes, I remember that winter starting off with a bang. Big snow storm on Christmas eve (I think?). 

6" on 12/5. Christmas night rain to snow. Early feb snow and then the big one on presidents' day plus early march and early April snows. January was also very cold but dry

[matt9503]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

6" on 12/5. Christmas night rain to snow. Early feb snow and then the big one on presidents' day plus early march and early April snows. January was also very cold but dry

I think the April one was on the day of the Yankees’ home opener when Matsui homered in his Bronx debut.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 49degs., or about 8degs. AN.

The next 17 days are averaging (06Z, GFS) about 50*[43/56] or some 7degs. AN.        There is no longer any snow showing.          Due to the super abilities of the GFS the 81* on the 19th., became 36* and now 68*------keep up the good work boys. lol     

Really for days 6-10 you should average two consecutive  days.   So for day 8, use the average of day 7,8 and apply it to both days as a forecast.      For days 11-15 use three days, one before and one after any apply the average to all three days.

42* here at 6am.        47* by 9am.       48* at 10am.          44* by 1pm.        42* by 3pm.        39* by 11pm.

[MJO812]

Yayy frost on my car

Reminds me of winter

[Allsnow]

We torch! 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Hard to believe the maximum was only 79 in 2012, especially considering many of the readings in the Midwest and New England.

While March 2012 was the warmest on record for Newark,  the monthly high temperature wasn’t that impressive. Newark only made it to 79 degrees. Even February 2018 had a warmer monthly maximum temperature of 80 degrees.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	51.3	0
2	1945	50.6	0
3	2016	49.1	0
4	1946	48.8	0
5	1973	48.6	0
6	2010	48.2	0
7	2000	47.8	0
8	1977	46.7	0
9	1979	46.2	0
10	1995	45.5	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1945	89	0
2	1998	86	0
-	1990	86	0
3	1985	84	0
-	1977	84	0
4	1989	83	0
-	1986	83	0
5	2016	82	0
-	1938	82	0
6	2011	80	0
-	2007	80	0
-	1962	80	0
-	1946	80	0
7	2012	79	0
-	1968	79	0
-	1963	79	0

 

[Uniblab]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Yayy frost on my car

Reminds me of winter

Make a frostman! 

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We torch! 

Wow Caribou is the place to be

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We torch! 

And models are typically underdone this time of year when we have torchy patterns. In reality many places not cooled down by the sea breeze would make it to 70.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

And models are typically underdone this time of year when we have torchy patterns. In reality many places not cooled down by the sea breeze would make it to 70.

The ensembles and weeklies have done a great job since the start of February. They nailed the Niña pattern for February and torch for March. 

[golfer07840]

5 hours ago, matt9503 said:

I think the April one was on the day of the Yankees’ home opener when Matsui homered in his Bronx debut.

That rings a bell. 

But the Yankees home opener that sticks with me is April 1996 and you could barely see the field on TV. 

But back on topic, woke up this morning and was surprised to see the sun and it wasn't that cold out (37 according to my car here in NW NJ).

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The ensembles and weeklies have done a great job since the start of February. They nailed the Niña pattern for February and torch for March. 

What’s interesting now is how extreme the Euro and EPS are going with the NPAC ridge near the Aleutians. The Euro has a +450 meter 500 height anomaly into early next week when we get our next warm up. Each amplification of that ridge drives the -PNA and strong SE Ridge pattern. Longer range, the Euro is snowing more of the same with the potential for a record +500 meter anomaly. So multiple warm ups in the pipeline for us. 

[MJO812]

Epo goes negative on the eps next week. Too late.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What’s interesting now is how extreme the Euro and EPS are going with the NPAC ridge near the Aleutians. The Euro has a +450 meter 500 height anomaly into early next week when we get our next warm up. Each amplification of that ridge drives the -PNA and strong SE Ridge pattern. Longer range, the Euro is snowing more of the same with the potential for a record +500 meter anomaly. So multiple warm ups in the pipeline for us. 
 

 

Yeah. It’s really sending the trough down the west coast. Its great pattern for warmth on the east coast. I expect a few days in the 70’s before this month ends 

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah. It’s really sending the trough down the west coast. Its great pattern for warmth on the east coast. I expect a few days in the 70’s before this month ends 

While you wouldn’t know it by looking at the RMM charts, the roundy plots and even the GFS have very strong forcing developing in the MJO 6 region. The model pattern coming up matches the March phase 6 composite very well. So it’s no surprise the models are going warm for us.

 

[Allsnow]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While you wouldn’t know it by looking at the RMM charts, the roundy plots and even the GFS have very strong forcing developing in the MJO 6 region. The model pattern coming up matches the March phase 6 composite very well. So it’s no surprise the models are going warm for us.

 

Yep. Typical rmm voodoo. I was just looking at the roundy plots last night. This wave will make it strongly into p6. Talk about a pattern of persistence. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Talk about a pattern of persistence. 

 

Yeah, that record WPAC warm pool keeps the warm MJO phases going.

[Stormlover74]

March 2012 saw just 5 days with a low temperature below 32. I think we have a real shot at breaking that this month.

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that record WPAC warm pool keeps the warm MJO phases going.

Come next winter if I see the same warm waters stacked up in the Wpac one needs to keep expectations low. 

[MJO812]

Dont look at the satelitte if you are a big weather weenie. What a bomb just offshore. What a tease this winter has been.

[gravitylover]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dont look at the satelitte if you are a big weather weenie. What a bomb just offshore. What a tease this winter has been.

And don't look at the radar and see the snow falling in VA/WV/KY/TN either. 

[Yanksfan]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dont look at the satelitte if you are a big weather weenie. What a bomb just offshore. What a tease this winter has been.

Couldn't help it. I just had to look. If we had blocking it would have been a 2 footer throughout the area.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Epo goes negative on the eps next week. Too late.

Meaningless. This month is still a full on torch as far as the eye can see

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Couldn't help it. I just had to look. If we had blocking it would have been a 2 footer throughout the area.

 

[Rtd208]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Continually making the "what could have been if we had this and if what had that" posts is not going to change the outcome. 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah. It’s really sending the trough down the west coast. Its great pattern for warmth on the east coast. I expect a few days in the 70’s before this month ends 

If the new EPS is correct, you’ll be right. It wants an all out torch starting 3/15 and beyond, shorts and t-shirt weather

[LibertyBell]

On 3/5/2020 at 3:56 PM, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the warm spots can make it to 80 before the end of March. The only two years since 2010 that Newark reached 80 or warmer were 2011 and 2016.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2019	77	0
2018	62	0
2017	73	0
2016	82	0
2015	64	0
2014	67	0
2013	61	0
2012	79	0
2011	80	0
2010	75	0

 

why was it so easy to reach the mid 80s in March 1990 and it doesn't seem to be so easy anymore?  Higher humidity/wetter months?

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/4/2020 at 6:36 PM, gravitylover said:

97 did, that's why the April Fool's storm was so destructive. That month the leaves were popping on nearly every type of tree here by 3/15 whereas at this point there's nothing happening yet. Will it green up in the next two weeks? Maybe but somehow I don't think so. 2012 is fuzzy for me but I do remember it greening up early but that may have been ground cover not the trees or I probably would have remembered it.

there's something called the winter severity index and I wonder what the top 5 years are on that list for being the least and most severe for us?  It comes temp and snowfall, so I would put 2001-02 at the top of the list for being the least severe.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/5/2020 at 4:54 PM, golfer07840 said:

And if I recall correctly, 2002 was a very Warm and dry summer. Perhaps we get that this year? 

thats what I've been saying for awhile now.  The lawns looked like straw that summer lol.... remember we had a heatwave in the middle of April that year with low humidity and the bluest skies I've ever seen- so wonderful!

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

In March 2012 Chicago had a nine day stretch in the middle of the month where they hit 80 or above 8 of the 9 days. The one day they didn’t it hit 79. I always wonder what that stretch would have looked like in mid July. Scary thought. 

see summer of 1995 for Chicago.... hundreds of people died, temps hit 106 on back to back days.... and remember all the wild fires here? 0 rainfall for August after hitting 103 in July with a 130 heat index at LGA in late July.