snowman19 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 One week away....Discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Just now, snowman19 said: One week away....Discuss What's the rush, it's 8 days away. This is a little like seeing Christmas decorations on Labor Day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: One week away....Discuss How come I never see you post during the summer? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 ^^ He melts 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Another +5 month incoming Trace of snow on the 29th At least 2 days above 75 Dry month <2" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: How come I never see you post during the summer? How’s Thursday’s snowstorm looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 Here is the new CPC outlook for 2/29 - 3/6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Another +5 month incoming Trace of snow on the 29th At least 2 days above 75 Dry month <2" Disagree...I think that T of snow falls on the 28th Otherwise I agree unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 At this point in time, the base case is a warmer than normal March in such cities as Baltimore, Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Today was also the 5th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days. All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. That would imply a warmer than normal March in the region. Further, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Finally, the most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 This is probably the most I've ever looked forward to March. There's nothing about this winter to miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At this point in time, the base case is a warmer than normal March in such cities as Baltimore, Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Today was also the 5th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days. All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. That would imply a warmer than normal March in the region. Further, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Finally, the most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. And probably a wetter one IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 33 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: And probably a wetter one IMO. Yes. It does favor a wetter spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: At this point in time, the base case is a warmer than normal March in such cities as Baltimore, Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Today was also the 5th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days. All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. That would imply a warmer than normal March in the region. Further, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Finally, the most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. Don, the models are showing the strongest SPV ever on record for March. If correct, wow. And it seems the CFS is continuing its correction warmer for next month as we get within a week to March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Looks warm after the first few days on the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks warm after the first few days on the month. Yea, the warmup looks to start on 3/3 and possibly get very mild thereafter. So much for that theory about Dennis causing a long lasting full scale pattern flip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks warm after the first few days on the month. Time to wave goodbye to the non-winter of 19/20. We were due for a true clunker. It can only get better next season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 15 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Time to wave goodbye to the non-winter of 19/20. We were due for a true clunker. It can only get better next season. Well it certainly can't get much worse. What is this #4 on least snowy years in NYC? Then again we could be looking at a situation where a student gets a 28 on the first exam and improves to a 59 on the next exam. Big improvement but still failing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Weeklies are a torch for mid month! Please be correct 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies are a torch for mid month! Please be correct Yep, torch city by 3/15, trough dumped into the west, finally a mild March for a change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep, torch city by 3/15, trough dumped into the west, finally a mild March for a change.... It's been a tough two years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 The Geps, GEFS, and eps in good agreement With the torch around the 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 10 hours ago, Allsnow said: The Geps, GEFS, and eps in good agreement With the torch around the 10th. Yep Its amazing how persistent the pattern is. You would think the pattern would change . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 3:51 PM, Allsnow said: Weeklies are a torch for mid month! Please be correct Why would you want warm weather this early? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Morning thoughts... 1. Prospects for a warmer to much warmer than normal March in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas have continued to increase. 2. The base case has long favored a warmer than normal March on account of such factors as the exceptionally strong polar vortex in February (which has a lingering influence on the March pattern), past strong AO+ regimes in February, and the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. 3. Modeling has evolved quite rapidly toward the warmer March idea (EPS weeklies and the CFSv2). Below is the evolution of the CFSv2 forecasts from February 19 through February 27 that illustrate this dramatic trend. 4. Evidence for an alternative cold scenario for March is almost non-existent. 5. March snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region remains on course to be below to much below normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Why would you want warm weather this early? It's done man, kaput. A little bit of cold and glop now would just be frustrating. Time to call it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: It's done man, kaput. A little bit of cold and glop now would just be frustrating. Time to call it... This winter is already in the coffin. The only one who doesn’t think it’s over is Joe Bastardi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This winter is already in the coffin. The only one who doesn’t think it’s over is Joe Bastardi He needs the revenue 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: It's done man, kaput. A little bit of cold and glop now would just be frustrating. Time to call it... Bluewave posted this a couple of days ago. If NYC doesn't get another measurable snowfall this season it will be the earliest end to the accumulating snows in a season ever. That sounds about right, this has been historically bad, why not set the record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Eps continues with the 3/8 torch. Spring starts early this year. We all deserve it after this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Eps continues with the 3/8 torch. Spring starts early this year. We all deserve it after this winter. Huge signal from this far out to see a major post 3/8 torch. Would not be shocked at all to see 70 degree readings, we will have the equivalent of a September sun overhead at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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