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Mid-week potential of something somewhere


Chicago Storm
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12 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

GFS consistent at least. Shrugs. 

It is also consistently the fastest with the trailing vort that ends up producing the main system, I just don't see that happening and many of the mesoscale model/foreign models are slowing more and more run to run. GFS will either score the coup of the winter, or play catch up.

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FWIW.... Caunucks model looks more like the NAM...placement through N. Ill, S. Wisc., SW. LMich through 72 hrs. Not sure about the defo band yet. Looks like a solid run for these areas to me. The evolution on the NAM and GEM seem much  more realistic to me.

 

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z UK -  Slight improvement, but STILL weak and well southeast of the other models.

 

My guess is amts will generally decrease as we draw close to the event as well as margins will narrow. Ukie still offering a lame way out.

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It was a given models were going to extremely struggle with this messy system.  At least now the players are getting on the field for the models to have a chance.

Ukie has been incredibly insistent.  One has to wonder how that's possible it could sniff out the coup so far out.

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11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z UK -  Slight improvement, but STILL weak and well southeast of the other models.  Isn't this supposed to be the second best model?

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

It was very similar to last run but just missed the phase by a tiny bit. It goes to show how something so small can have such a large impact.

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19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Only one I am tossing is the easiest toss in the world and that is the GFS

Yeah its hell-bent on sweeping your  our significant other off to a buried cabin in wisconsin.

It wouldn't take much for it relax to a more smooth look. And I don't think the other models are a far adjustment off to be something more exotic.

Hopefully the models can tighten up through the day tomorrow and if they do kudos.  Knowing their challenges  going in I have to give the models a pass so far.  They have made it very entertaining at least and with some luck hopefully a lot of us can get in on some snows and lets be happy for anyone lucky enough to walk with the elusive Big Dog

 

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