Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Madison special GFS GFS is going down in an ugly way on this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 00z GFS It's not a big change from 18z, but it has pulled some of the snow back away from Iowa again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 We still have at least two more major models to wait through tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 GFS consistent at least. Shrugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, UMB WX said: GFS consistent at least. Shrugs. It is also consistently the fastest with the trailing vort that ends up producing the main system, I just don't see that happening and many of the mesoscale model/foreign models are slowing more and more run to run. GFS will either score the coup of the winter, or play catch up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 0Z GEM actually a touch north and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 FWIW.... Caunucks model looks more like the NAM...placement through N. Ill, S. Wisc., SW. LMich through 72 hrs. Not sure about the defo band yet. Looks like a solid run for these areas to me. The evolution on the NAM and GEM seem much more realistic to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GEM actually a touch north and weaker It isn't done running yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Stebo said: It isn't done running yet. Yea, just different evolution and phasing this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Yea, just different evolution and phasing this run. Yep, this is more Ukie like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Wake me up when this fake winter is over... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 00z Canadian - The defo zone is a bit north, but also more spread out and less intense compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 CMC looks completely different from 12z and more in line with the GFS and Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 How many model runs are we going to toss tonight? I'm guessing for many the GFS and GEM? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 00z UK - Slight improvement, but STILL weak and well southeast of the other models. Isn't this supposed to be the second best model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z UK - Slight improvement, but STILL weak and well southeast of the other models. My guess is amts will generally decrease as we draw close to the event as well as margins will narrow. Ukie still offering a lame way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 It was a given models were going to extremely struggle with this messy system. At least now the players are getting on the field for the models to have a chance. Ukie has been incredibly insistent. One has to wonder how that's possible it could sniff out the coup so far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: How many model runs are we going to toss tonight? I'm guessing for many the GFS and GEM? Only one I am tossing is the easiest toss in the world and that is the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z UK - Slight improvement, but STILL weak and well southeast of the other models. Isn't this supposed to be the second best model? It was very similar to last run but just missed the phase by a tiny bit. It goes to show how something so small can have such a large impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: Only one I am tossing is the easiest toss in the world and that is the GFS Would be crazy if the GFS ends up verifying. Still within the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 GEFS very similar to 18z. Still plenty of good hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, Stebo said: Only one I am tossing is the easiest toss in the world and that is the GFS Yeah its hell-bent on sweeping your our significant other off to a buried cabin in wisconsin. It wouldn't take much for it relax to a more smooth look. And I don't think the other models are a far adjustment off to be something more exotic. Hopefully the models can tighten up through the day tomorrow and if they do kudos. Knowing their challenges going in I have to give the models a pass so far. They have made it very entertaining at least and with some luck hopefully a lot of us can get in on some snows and lets be happy for anyone lucky enough to walk with the elusive Big Dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 if Madison gets 14” I’ll eat a hat. But actually this is looking good for a high advisory low end warning criteria snow here. Will be interesting to see if any other models folllow the ukmet in shutting us out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Seems like the UK is always weak/southeast with every system for as long as I have been following models. In the end it usually caves to a stronger nw system, unless we have a season like this one. If it ends up being right it's probably for the wrong reasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Seems to me like we're down to Wings Weds in Madison. Or meeting up with MSF for a Winter Wonderland photo shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Nice of the Euro to confirm who to side eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 The Euro basically just trended halfway to the UK. ARGH. It is a bit faster with the lead wave and slower with the trailing wave. That's all it takes to ruin/delay the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 00z Euro will be an excellent run south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Don't have access to Kuchera maps, but 10:1 for the Euro, though not quite as impressive as 12z, isn't totally lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Pretty meh if that's what our Big Dog grows up to be. Its snow though for a lot more of so that's something for sure. right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now