A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Given the performance of the op gfs and the eps strength, feel p good about tossing the gfs imby. Would be a bad time for it to be right for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Given the performance of the op gfs and the eps strength, feel p good about tossing the gfs imby. Would be a bad time for it to be right for once. Yeah the upper level evolution of the Euro and some of its ensembles that I’ve looked at seem to make more physical sense than what the gfs is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Only around 60 more model runs before the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 8 hours ago, Stebo said: We can sacrifice you for the good of SEMI Don’t make me bring my alter ego out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Reading the DTX AFD this morning, they’ve tossed the GFS solutions. Can’t argue against that really, poor skill scores and recent performance has been “ GFS and its ensemble on the other hand appear to be struggling right off the bat with the east Pacific energy, rendering it an unusable outlier in the other direction - thus the preference for a CMC/ECMWF consensus at this time.” Feel cautiously optimistic for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 FWIW, the NAM is north and strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 Trend seems to be NW for now.Not that sampling has helped guidance at all this season...southern wave by 0z this evening and northern wave by 0z tomorrow evening.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Trend seems to be NW for now. Not that sampling has helped guidance at all this season...southern wave by 0z this evening and northern wave by 0z tomorrow evening. . Trend is NW a bit but the 12z NAM is the NAM being the NAM I suspect. Northern outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Remember when the GFS was actually good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said: Remember when the GFS was actually good? No 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Cooked as of now on the gfs and appears nam. with wave one coming in farther north compared to yesterday that really screws up any chance of the northern wave digging enough to benefit most of us. def not time to throw in the towel and will be fun to see how this comes together in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Another Madison special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 The GFS is sticking with the north route. The surface low gets all the way up to near Green Bay, so it's WAY up there. It is stronger, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Ez toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, mimillman said: Another Madison special positive take. At least the GFS is on board with an event as opposed to a few runs back that had it in Virginia. And yes, it could certainly be north of northern illinos as that is where the GFS had the system consistently before it lost it. It's rarely cut and dried. Have to add, sure is some funky movement on both the GFS and NAM...at least to my untrained eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The GFS is sticking with the north route. The surface low gets all the way up to near Green Bay, so it's WAY up there. It is stronger, though. It's not just the northern route. It's completely handling the evolution of the long wave trough differently, putting more emphasis on the lead rather than the trailing wave, compared to EURO for eg. Maybe the stronger secondary system will end up coming to fruition but I think the GFS solution is plausible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 GGEM likes the stronger, second low. Haven't seen any snowfall maps but looks like a nice hit from ORD through NW IN and most of lower MI. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Yeah, the Canadian still has the trailing energy digging farther south. The surface low hangs out in southern IL/IN as the upper low catches up. The GFS takes that surface low and lifts it well north. 12z Canadian... pretty steady the last few runs. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Good stuff gang. Couple twerks and the GFS can get itself straight. Fun one to track. Been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 I’ll never say another bad thing about the Canadians if that 12z actually happens. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Euro been pretty steady since yesterday. I think it will come in wetter/snowier but same general picture as last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 The UK just doesn't want to play ball, yet. The problem appears to be the UK is speeding the first wave eastward faster than the other models. It has the trailing upper low like the others, but the first wave is so fast it does not get captured by the trailing energy, so the entire system ends up weak and moisture-starved. I thought we'd see improvement this morning, but this run is actually a step backward again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 I don't even know if the UK brought the initial wave in to the buckeye state at 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 I think it will snow here but absolutely no confidence in anything else. Hopefully it won't take too long to get some clarity but won't be surprised if it does. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Ride the Canadian... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 After a walk outside in the sun and low 40s Im content with this one being rain for the GTA. I'm ready to move onto spring. Missing out on snowstorms in late February and March isnt as bad as November-Early February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Chicagoland members won't like the 12z Euro. It has shifted the 500 mb low north to the I-80 corridor (last run was northern MO to central IL), and the surface low gets up to Chicago, so the snow band has moved up into Wisconsin and the WI/IL border region. We don't need this trending any farther north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Madison special written all over this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Madison special written all over this Madison has been hot recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Madison special written all over this based on trends today, and the fact I don't expect this to shear and fade south a continued northwest amped outcome is not out of the realm of possibility. Minny and Green Bay special. As nice as today is, I'd rather steer clear of a 2-3 inch slop job. I'm on the give me a 6" or greater or nothing at all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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