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Mid-week potential of something somewhere


Chicago Storm
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4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Given the performance of the op gfs and the eps strength, feel p good about tossing the gfs imby. Would be a bad time for it to be right for once.

Yeah the upper level evolution of the Euro and some of its ensembles that I’ve looked at seem to make more physical sense than what the gfs is showing 

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Reading the DTX AFD this morning, they’ve tossed the GFS solutions. Can’t argue against that really, poor skill scores and recent performance has been :yikes:

GFS and its ensemble on the other hand appear to be struggling right off the bat with the east Pacific energy, rendering it an unusable outlier in the other direction - thus the preference for a CMC/ECMWF consensus at this time.”

Feel cautiously optimistic for this storm. 

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Cooked as of now on the gfs and appears nam.  with wave one coming in farther north compared to yesterday that really screws up any chance of the northern wave digging enough to benefit most of us.  def not time to throw in the towel and will be fun to see how this comes together in the end.

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13 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Another Madison special

positive take. At least the GFS is on board with an event as opposed to a few runs back that had it in Virginia. And yes, it could certainly be north of northern illinos as that is where the GFS had the system consistently before it lost it. It's rarely cut and dried. Have to add, sure is some funky movement on both the GFS and NAM...at least to my untrained eye.

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21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS is sticking with the north route.  The surface low gets all the way up to near Green Bay, so it's WAY up there.  It is stronger, though.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

It's not just the northern route.  It's completely handling the evolution of the long wave trough differently, putting more emphasis on the lead rather than the trailing wave, compared to EURO for eg.

Maybe the stronger secondary system will end up coming to fruition but I think the GFS solution is plausible.

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The UK just doesn't want to play ball, yet.  The problem appears to be the UK is speeding the first wave eastward faster than the other models.  It has the trailing upper low like the others, but the first wave is so fast it does not get captured by the trailing energy, so the entire system ends up weak and moisture-starved.  I thought we'd see improvement this morning, but this run is actually a step backward again.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Madison special written all over this 

based on trends today, and the fact I don't expect this to shear and fade south a continued northwest amped outcome is not out of the realm of possibility. Minny and Green Bay special. As nice as today is, I'd rather steer clear of a 2-3 inch slop job. I'm on the give me a 6" or greater or nothing at all.

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