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Mid-week potential of something somewhere


Chicago Storm

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Mix of rain and snow currently in Toledo.  Radar looking like we will stay in snow for the next 20 hours, albeit light to moderate for the most part.  Too bad our antecedent conditions weren't colder, otherwise this would be much different.  

 

Felt bad saying that after what those out west have dealt with over the past 24 hours.  Sorry guys.  

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  On 2/25/2020 at 11:46 PM, Stebo said:

Oh the Op GFS is the easiest toss ever. We need to go back to the AVN model.

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Honestly as cyclone said the other day, take this gfs to the woodshed. Cut the losses. It's a whole new level of ineptitude. It has a cold bias, yet storms track 500 miles south as they close in. That alone doesnt make sense.

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  On 2/25/2020 at 8:16 PM, Snowstorms said:

Latest HRRR has ~8” in Toronto by 6z Thurs and still snowing. Heaviest amounts centred from Hamilton to Oshawa including Toronto.

Feeling more confident with 6-10”.

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Late February 1984 in Toronto. Some similarities. Temperatures in the low 50s Fahrenheit on the 23rd-24th, followed by 36. 4 cm (14-15") of snow on 27th-28th, followed by temperatures in the 20s to end the month.

February 1984.PNG

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  On 2/26/2020 at 12:40 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Late February 1984 in Toronto. Some similarities. Temperatures in the low 50s Fahrenheit on the 23rd-24th, followed by 36. 4 cm (14-15") of snow on 27th-28th, followed by temperatures in the 20s to end the month.

February 1984.PNG

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That was a much more impressive storm though:

022900.png

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  On 2/26/2020 at 12:40 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Late February 1984 in Toronto. Some similarities. Temperatures in the low 50s Fahrenheit on the 23rd-24th, followed by 36. 4 cm (14-15") of snow on 27th-28th, followed by temperatures in the 20s to end the month.

February 1984.PNG

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I like how you didn't use YYZ. It was a 5" storm at YYZ lol. Seems like a WNY special. I don't think there's any radar reanalysis maps that go back that far. 

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  On 2/26/2020 at 1:54 AM, Snowstorms said:

HRRR has been solid this year. 

Back to back winters with a footer? I say we do it. If we see 12", it'll be the snowiest winter since 08-09 at YYZ haha. 

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RAP and HRRR have value, but when they run out to 36 hours it's sort of their clown range.  I wouldn't bite on anything like that yet.  

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