Cary67 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: that was good content we put together another real winner of a season, maybe one of these years we luck our way into another big bog before the dallas climo kicks in Scars run deep for model trust. Hard not to Jerry Taft every forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I’ll go with 3.5 inches of slop for IKK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 6z models trended weaker and bit further SE compared to 00Z. 4-6" seems like a good call for now barring any major changes at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 6z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: 6z euro? Ticked NW actually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Moderate snow now falling with big fat flakes. Wish this was the beginning of accumulating snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Nice AFD from Ryan at KIND (and one of the longest short term's I've ever seen)... .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/... Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 Forecast challenges quite a bit greater than 24 hours ago as the model suite has shifted the potential for accumulating snow further to the southeast than previous runs had it. The overall model mayhem has led to some drastic changes to the forecast from just a day or two ago...highlighted by an increasing threat for accumulating snow...especially over the northern half of the forecast area. Still though with such a rapid change within many of the model solutions...confidence is nowhere near where would like to see it at this stage. A headache inducer to say the least. So why such large scale changes over just the last few model runs from just a few tenths of snow to potentially needing to consider headlines? Much has to do with the model suite`s handling of the evolution of the upper level pattern as the energy diving out of the northern Rockies carves out a deep trough over the center of the country by Wednesday. Previous runs had a cleaner transition of the energy aloft from the weakening wave over the region this morning into the expanding energy aloft dropping in from the northwest. Model guidance this morning still has this transition taking place but it is quite a bit messier with strung out energy aloft described in the near term section above aiding in less phasing at the surface and subsequently a shift south to almost all of the key features involved with this storm. A developing upper low will close off over Oklahoma/Kansas this evening then deepen as the energy aloft carves out the trough as it tracks across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Wednesday. Just two days ago...a new surface wave was developing over northern Illinois late tonight and early Wednesday in tandem with the upper low but now due to the strung out nature of the waves aloft ahead of the approaching northern stream energy...this secondary low never develops with the current surface wave over the region drifting slowly east near the Ohio River. This results in the colder airmass pivoting into the region much faster than originally thought... perhaps as early as this evening in the northern Wabash Valley before expanding southeast across the area into Wednesday. Model soundings support a gradual transition to snow from rain overnight into Wednesday morning over the northwest half of the forecast area...with a rain to snow/rain mix over the southeast half on Wednesday. Low level thermals support snow as the primary precip type over the entire forecast area by late day Wednesday. So while there is an increased threat for snow accumulations late Tuesday night into Wednesday...especially along and north of the I- 70 corridor...several caveats remain that must be considered in determining amounts. The model suite is capturing a trailing surface trough behind the departing low pressure system with a trowal extending west in tandem Wednesday morning. The strong energy aloft mentioned above will dive around the base of the approaching upper low and into the region Wednesday morning enhancing diffluence aloft. These features combined with the potential for a mid level deformation axis to rotate across the northern half of the forecast area could support a threat for heavier bursts of snow through the day. With that being said...surface and ground temps will be a factor for a good chunk of the day with low to mid 30s common across the region before turning colder by Wednesday evening. The above factors could lead to heavier snowfall rates that would overcome these marginal temps but some melting of snow does seem likely when rates remain lighter which will knock totals down. A lot to consider here and a lot that could bust potential snowfall totals. That being said...feel strongly from a public impact standpoint that a headline needs to be introduced over northern counties where confidence is highest at the moment for impacts and accumulations. Will introduce a Winter Storm Watch...essentially north of a Crawfordsville-Anderson line...which offers the most flexibility at this point considering the constant model shuffling that has occurred over the last 24-48 hours and may continue with the 12Z runs today. Have 3-5 inches in these areas...1 to potentially as high as 3 to 4 near the I-70 corridor in the transition zone and lighter amounts further south. Fully expect that an Advisory at a minimum will be needed over parts of the northern forecast area should trends continue and the dayshift will have an additional set of runs to determine if further adjustments in location and amounts is needed. The main message at this point is that adverse winter weather and snow accumulations are becoming more likely for late Tuesday night and especially Wednesday over the northern half of the forecast area. Snow will gradually diminish Wednesday night as the upper low shifts east of the region. High pressure will build in on Thursday but cloud coverage will remain higher as a fast moving clipper system dives through the Missouri Valley. This feature will track into the lower Ohio Valley Thursday night. While the focus of the precipitation will be southwest of the forecast area...flurries or light snow may skim the lower Wabash Valley early Friday. Plan on keeping the forecast dry at this point but will be something to monitor going forward. Temps...heavily utilized ConsAll numbers for hourly temps late tonight in Wednesday to try and better capture the expansion of the colder air. Temps will drop steadily after 06Z tonight back into the lower and middle 30s with little to no recovery on Wednesday before the much colder air arrives Wednesday night. Generally undercut MOS guidance as a result for highs Wednesday. Much colder Thursday with some portions of the area remaining in the 20s. Lows will fall back into the teens over much of the area by Thursday night. && 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 It’s like Mother Nature knows I’m moving and wants me to see legit snow one more time lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 8:53 AM, Chicago Storm said: For reference for ORD... The last 10”+ snowstorm was Nov 20-21st 2015. (11.2”) The last 12”+ snowstorm was GHD2 in 2015, and the previous before that was GHD1 in 2011. . Insane the last time Chicago saw a 10” storm was 4.5 years ago, and likely will end up being 5+ years. This has been a horrendous stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 19 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: Ticked NW actually. Baby steps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 6" seems like a reasonable call for Toronto at this point, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Rates have actually allowed a coating to start on most surfaces. Temp has dropped 3 degrees as well, sitting at 33. Guessing wet bulbing is the cause. Either way wasn't expecting to see snow until late morning early afternoon, still have a forecast high if 38, which it was 38 at midnight so they wouldn't be wrong. They have 38 at 2pm in the grids, but supposed to be 4 degrees warmer currently and holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: 2008 everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, trended nw Well, there was the *HUGE* exception of the March 2008 blizzard. Still bitter about that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Solid coating now on treated surfaces here at work, not sure about roads. Wooden surfaces approaching 1/2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: Nice AFD from Ryan at KIND (and one of the longest short term's I've ever seen)... ...strung out energy aloft... The theme of winter 2019-20. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 44 minutes ago, snowcaine said: 6" seems like a reasonable call for Toronto at this point, I'll take it. Slightly OT but it always used to weird me out when Toronto posters would talk about getting rainers. I always thought of Canada as this place way far to the north that's inevitably colder and snowier than us. I have to remember Toronto is only a few degrees of latitude north of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tapering off a bit, be interesting to see how much temps rebound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Slightly OT but it always used to weird me out when Toronto posters would talk about getting rainers. I always thought of Canada as this place way far to the north that's inevitably colder and snowier than us. I have to remember Toronto is only a few degrees of latitude north of me. haha your not alone. At least you live in Wisconsin so not a lot of interaction with Canada. Meeting people at Bills game and they ask how we handle the cold and snow and that they could never live in Canada because of that. The GTA is only 45 minutes across the border and Buffalo is right on the border so its not like theres a game of thrones type wall and were wildlings (way off topic now haha) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Rooting for a complete shutout here. Bring it! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Fun mix of rain wind and big flakes here in Bourbonnais IL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, tuanis said: Rooting for a complete shutout here. Bring it! Yep. May as well cement this as the "2020 phantom big dog" so I can bitch and moan about it for years to come. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 39 and rain with a couple flakes mixed in near Joliet, dominating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Back to big fat flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Pretty much winding down now. Average of 3 measurements is .85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snohio Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 This is looking a lot better than it was a couple days ago when we were in the all rain area. Should at least get some snow and it's nice to see a winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Slightly OT but it always used to weird me out when Toronto posters would talk about getting rainers. I always thought of Canada as this place way far to the north that's inevitably colder and snowier than us. I have to remember Toronto is only a few degrees of latitude north of me. Actually, almost exactly the same latitude as Madison. We jut out on a peninsula in the SE part of the country. We're Canada's Miami. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Slightly OT but it always used to weird me out when Toronto posters would talk about getting rainers. I always thought of Canada as this place way far to the north that's inevitably colder and snowier than us. I have to remember Toronto is only a few degrees of latitude north of me. That Jan 10-12 storm was a quality rainer. 3” in mid Jan. Can’t get much better than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 12z 3km NAM has a foot at YYZ, 8 or 9 inches from the synoptic and then the rest from a gnarly lk huron band afterwards with impressive inland penetration. Sounds like fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Thought I saw a flake. Was a bird feather. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: 12z 3km NAM has a foot at YYZ, 8 or 9 inches from the synoptic and then the rest from a gnarly lk huron band afterwards with impressive inland penetration. Sounds like fun. Sounds like a Dec ‘16 repeat band. RGEM is a bit more east with the heavier amounts. Closer to 8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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