Indystorm Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Freakin' amazingly trash models this winter. Just a couple of days ago, I thought Alek's 5.5 call was going to bust due to the best snows being in WI, while I was waiting on a participation trophy for back end reacharound flakes. Tonight's 3km NAM bullseyes us with 7". Unbelievably bad. I feel bad for forecasters as every time the models pull this crap, they have to take the brunt of it from the public. And how much money has been spent to tweak and upgrade these models in recent years? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 ICON is a tick SE of its 18z run. Pretty similar orientation to the latest GGEM. UKMET is running now...hopefully it isn't craptastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Jk the UKMET is craptastic. Detroit is on the NW edge. DAB+ call still in play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 00z UK..... wow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Slower/later phase definitely favoring you Michigan folk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 The UK just cancelled the Detroit special 2 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 25 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z UK..... wow. Wow what a pos of a "storm". This one will be lucky to drop a sloppy inch or two in nw PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 35 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z UK..... wow. Yeahhh... I think the truth of this storm will be somewhere closer to the GEM than this,, that's like comedcially underamped like the GFS, and the WPC agrees Preference: 00Z NAM, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET through 12Z/27 non 12Z CMC blend from 12Z/27 to 12Z/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Yeahhh... I think the truth of this storm will be somewhere closer to the GEM than this,, that's like comedcially underamped like the GFS, and the WPC agrees Preference: 00Z NAM, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET through 12Z/27 non 12Z CMC blend from 12Z/27 to 12Z/28 Denial is a perfectly natural step in the grieving process. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I liked it better about 12 or 13 years ago when everything trended NW and stronger. It was exciting because someone ended up with big totals at the last minute. Now, the area the gets the jackpot ends up with a couple of inches. lol. I can’t wait for someone to be in an enhanced severe weather area this Spring only to end up with a 45 degree steady rain. lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 For a little perspective for those further upstream of this pos. This is how things have changed in the last 24hrs. Who knows what the difference will be between tonight and tomorrow night at this rate. Last night at this time we were looking at this fresh off the press from the 3km NAM. 24hrs later, this is what it shows from the same ending period of 12z Wed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 3:57 PM, cyclone77 said: Newly updated point has 7-13" here by Wed. Not too shabby. Just another tidbit to lol at. From 7-13" to what will likely be not a flake. This is the granddaddy of all busts for this area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Well with any luck, maybe the bleeding has stopped locally. I mean, onset is just hours away now. Does look like my call is going to be a few inches too high. I think 4-6" is a reasonable range. 6" being if some better banding/lehs comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Euro shifted east, but it’s not *too* dramatic. Nothing like the UKMET at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, MIstorm97 said: Euro shifted east, but it’s not *too* dramatic. Nothing like the UKMET at least. Maybe the hemorrhaging has slowed and the clock can run out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 25 minutes ago, roardog said: I liked it better about 12 or 13 years ago when everything trended NW and stronger. It was exciting because someone ended up with big totals at the last minute. Now, the area the gets the jackpot ends up with a couple of inches. lol. I can’t wait for someone to be in an enhanced severe weather area this Spring only to end up with a 45 degree steady rain. lol We went through a period when you could almost take the northwest trend to the bank. Now it's like a complete 180. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, Stebo said: Maybe the hemorrhaging has slowed and the clock can run out. Nope! Need more bleeding! The O.V. still gets shafted..me by 20 miles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 minute ago, chuckster2012 said: Nope! Need more bleeding! The O.V. still gets shafted..me by 20 miles! Drive to see the snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Have a feeling this will end up being a sloppy mess for nearly everyone involved (not everyone). Models struggling with track and amounts - that tells me that it’s going to be a low end - long duration event with many times where it isn’t snowing and instead is melting... wouldn’t hold fire to it. 2-4” looks solid around here with the majority falling between 9pm Tuesday night through about 1pm Wednesday. What. A. Mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 06Z NAM coming in a touch northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Hopefully this is where the bleeding stops. Detroit would be set up for another 6"+ event. GRR is going to need to trim the NW portions of its WSW for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 06Z NAM coming in a touch northwest Lol. Crickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: We went through a period when you could almost take the northwest trend to the bank. Now it's like a complete 180. 2008 everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, trended nw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 6z runs nudged east again. Best snow, shockingly, now even east of Toronto on the GFS and RGEM for eg. I'm still betting on a last-minute slight westward correction, which I thought was going to hurt us with mixing, but now may actually help us. I'll revise my previous bittercasting "final" call with 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: 2008 everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, trended nw "NW trend" was a big thing from the late 90s to about then. As I recall, it was frequently mentioned in AFDs by mets, so it's not just some weenie thing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 they say time heals all wounds..... 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Woke up under a Winter Storm Watch when 24 hours ago it still seemed very likely that this would be a non-event locally. This hobby, man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, Baum said: they say time heals all wounds..... that was good content we put together another real winner of a season, maybe one of these years we luck our way into another big bog before the dallas climo kicks in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Thread title super appropriate 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Currently have some sleet mixed in with the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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