Mid-week potential of something somewhere

[Chicago12]

Skilling seems to be rather confident that Chicago is still going to get hit. See his Facebook posts in last hour. 

[A-L-E-K]

the thing about the se/weaker trends this year, once it kicks in, there's no stopping the bleeding...just gonna keep sliding weaker and east until poof

[RCNYILWX]

This is starting to have shades of a poor man's 2/24/16, an event I don't care to revisit lol. Although that sharp northwest edge was much better modeled with better lead time than this. It really is unfortunate the early watches went out yesterday given that guidance was already trending southeast and lowering confidence. I heard from a co-worker that DVN was very gung ho about issuing watch when they did, which probably resulted in my office and MKX issuing in the afternoon.

 

Another aspect is that WPC has been oddly weighting a good chunk of previous model cycle or two, and we incorporate WPC QPF into our forecasts. In a steadily southeast trending scenario, that's left our forecasts a cycle or two behind. It's certainly gonna be a field day on social media because of the significant change in the forecast.

 

Edit: As Alek posted above, maybe this keeps trending southeast and we don't have to revisit 2/24/16.

 

 

 

 

[King James]

Skilling seems to be rather confident that Chicago is still going to get hit. See his Facebook posts in last hour. 

 

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10157905907756760&id=87625716759

 

He’s loving where@Hoosier sits

[cyclone77]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This has been a pretty substantial shift for this day in age, but I remember more frequent big busts in the 90s.  One in particular (wish I could remember the exact year... could've been 1995 or 1996) when I was forecast for 7-13" (odd range I know) the day before and ended up not getting a flake or any precip for that matter.  It pulled a last minute south lunge.  

That's pretty brutal.  I'm sure there's some big busts from the old days I've mentally blocked out lol, but this one would surely rank towards the top if Euro and others work out.  8" still being forecast 12-18hrs from event.  Another tiny bump south and it's entirely possible we won't see a flake.  You just gotta love this winter. 

[Stebo]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This has been a pretty substantial shift for this day in age, but I remember more frequent big busts in the 90s.  One in particular (wish I could remember the exact year... could've been 1995 or 1996) when I was forecast for 7-13" (odd range I know) the day before and ended up not getting a flake or any precip for that matter.  It pulled a last minute south lunge.  

It is 2020, we shouldn't be having massive shifts like this in modeling and it isn't just the US models either. Ukie has been consistent with where it is putting the snow, but surely not how it is was evolving the system itself. The other foreign models have been diving SE too, though the US models have been the most erratic.

[fluoronium]

I know things are trending bad for most here but I have a good feeling about where I'm sitting. Disregarding the models and pretty much any thread of scientific reasoning, I'm predicting that PIA will reach 4" solely based on the fact that the temp reached 59F there yesterday. I did a quick comb through of the data and it looks like EVERY recent 4"+ snowfall has been preceded by a warm spell immediately before it.

October 2019: 64F on the 27th, 50F on the 28th, and 4.2" snow on the 30th-31st
April 2019: 73F on the 11th, 53F on the 12th, 56F on the 13th, and 5.0" on snow on the 14th (plus 75F and 78F two and three days later)
January 2019: 61F on the 7th, 47F on the 8th, 11.2" of snow on the 11th-13th
November 2018: 56F on the 24th, 4.6" on the 25th-27th
March 2018: 54F on the 22nd, 51F on the 23rd, 9.1" on the 23rd-24th

The streak began in March 2018 it looks like, because in the February before it there was a 4" snowfall where the temp the day before only got to 45F. Also WTF why did 4 out of the 5 biggest snows fall outside of winter?

My prediction of 4" is bold, since 4.3" would actually beat Halloween for the highest of the season.

[UMB WX]

6-8" on Euro is still a Big Dog storm for,  SE, MI standards.

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That's pretty brutal.  I'm sure there's some big busts from the old days I've mentally blocked out lol, but this one would surely rank towards the top if Euro and others work out.  8" still being forecast 12-18hrs from event.  Another tiny bump south and it's entirely possible we won't see a flake.  You just gotta love this winter. 

I know there were some epic punks in the subforum in the early 2000's, but this one is the biggest "rug pull" that I have seen since I started following intently. At 6am yesterday, I would have assumed 6" was a lock, with good potential to go up from there. Insane to see go from warning to mood dust in 4 model cycles this close to the event. 

[hawkeye_wx]

7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

This is starting to have shades of a poor man's 2/24/16, an event I don't care to revisit lol. Although that sharp northwest edge was much better modeled with better lead time than this. It really is unfortunate the early watches went out yesterday given that guidance was already trending southeast and lowering confidence. I heard from a co-worker that DVN was very gung ho about issuing watch when they did, which probably resulted in my office and MKX issuing in the afternoon.

What I don't get is why the heck DMX issued a watch for freakin' Ames and Des Moines.  By the time this watch was issued, I don't think a single model had more than an inch of snow falling there.

[weatherbo]

5 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

6-8" on Euro is still a Big Dog storm for,  SE, MI standards.

I think SE MI's standards are a little bit higher than that. 

6-8 inches is a fairly routine snowstorm.  When I think "big dog", 12-15 inches is a start.... even for lower mi.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

This is starting to have shades of a poor man's 2/24/16, an event I don't care to revisit lol. Although that sharp northwest edge was much better modeled with better lead time than this. It really is unfortunate the early watches went out yesterday given that guidance was already trending southeast and lowering confidence. I heard from a co-worker that DVN was very gung ho about issuing watch when they did, which probably resulted in my office and MKX issuing in the afternoon.

 

Another aspect is that WPC has been oddly weighting a good chunk of previous model cycle or two, and we incorporate WPC QPF into our forecasts. In a steadily southeast trending scenario, that's left our forecasts a cycle or two behind. It's certainly gonna be a field day on social media because of the significant change in the forecast.

 

Edit: As Alek posted above, maybe this keeps trending southeast and we don't have to revisit 2/24/16.

 

 

 

 

And almost to the day of 2/24/16.  That was reminiscent of a lake effect type gradient in amounts between the city and nw IN, only it was a synoptic storm.

[Baum]

^

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2016feb24_snow

[UMB WX]

23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

the thing about the se/weaker trends this year, once it kicks in, there's no stopping the bleeding...just gonna keep sliding weaker and east until poof

Pattern has been generally weak storms for a good run of winters now.  Not good for us on this side of the lake. 

 

8 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I think SE MI's standards are a little bit higher than that. 

6-8 inches is a fairly routine snowstorm.  When I think "big dog", 12-15 inches is a start.... even for lower mi.

their  was some tongue in cheek there, but they have a crappy winter climate for big storms south of Detroit. 

[madwx]

the NWS twitter account just sent out graphics showing 4" in Madison and 7" in Milwaukee LOL  not a good look

 

 

[michaelmantis]

Just now, Baum said:

^

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2016feb24_snow

Thanks for posting, was looking for that link!

I can almost understand a lake-effect scenario (the 2016 situation) causing that huge spread in amounts but this storm in question here was not a "lake effect" storm for N IL (while it may have lake moisture influences). 

I have no meteorological background, just a big interest, so I'm not going to throw stones. But all of this needs to be publicly corrected by the afternoon updates as we are now close to 24 hours out and those who just watched the evening or morning news have no idea of the latest updates and in many cases huge snowfall numbers are still being publicized. 

All this being said, wouldn't it be something if with this winter this thing makes a last minute shift north after all the forecasts are updated this afternoon? Mother nature messing with everyone. 

[michaelmantis]

Just now, madwx said:

the NWS twitter account just sent out graphics showing 4" in Madison and 7" in Milwaukee LOL  not a good look

 

 

 

This data looks to be from the 3-4 AM model runs... How could they still be using it?!?!?

[MIstorm97]

13 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I think SE MI's standards are a little bit higher than that. 

6-8 inches is a fairly routine snowstorm.  When I think "big dog", 12-15 inches is a start.... even for lower mi.

We are the king of 6-10” snowfalls after all. Heck there’s been multiple 9-11” ones as of late. Would be nice to break the 12” hump once again 

[madwx]

3 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

This data looks to be from the 3-4 AM model runs... How could they still be using it?!?!?

I actually think its the forecast snowfall amounts in the grids from each forecast office.  Which had their last major update about 3 am.  But in this case you should either create your own graphic for this situation or do something else to explain the situation because these are going to be drastically different in an hour or two

 

[UMB WX]

3 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

This data looks to be from the 3-4 AM model runs... How could they still be using it?!?!?

I'm sure they'd like to burn it but, have to own it until coordination this afternoon. Just how shit works I suppose at NWS.

[Stebo]

15 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I think SE MI's standards are a little bit higher than that. 

6-8 inches is a fairly routine snowstorm.  When I think "big dog", 12-15 inches is a start.... even for lower mi.

It is, but his post came with some spinner bait attached. SEMI is the king of 6-10" and that is what I would be saying would happen, if I had any confidence in the forecast. I don't though because there is nothing to latch onto, that says this won't keep evaporating.

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Pattern has been generally weak storms for a good run of winters now.  Not good for us on this side of the lake. 

 

their  was some tongue in cheek there, but they have a crappy winter climate for big storms south of Detroit. 

All depends on your definition of big. I would agree with bo, 12 to 15"+ is where we start talking big dog.

 If 6" or more of snow falls out of the storm, it would be Detroit third storm of 6"+ this season.  Of course with how horrible the models have been, now counting on anything till I wake up Thursday morning.

Nov 11/12- 9.2"

Jan 18- 6.8"

Feb 25/26- ?

 

[cyclone77]

9 minutes ago, madwx said:

the NWS twitter account just sent out graphics showing 4" in Madison and 7" in Milwaukee LOL  not a good look

 

 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

Thanks for posting, was looking for that link!

I can almost understand a lake-effect scenario (the 2016 situation) causing that huge spread in amounts but this storm in question here was not a "lake effect" storm for N IL (while it may have lake moisture influences). 

I have no meteorological background, just a big interest, so I'm not going to throw stones. But all of this needs to be publicly corrected by the afternoon updates as we are now close to 24 hours out and those who just watched the evening or morning news have no idea of the latest updates and in many cases huge snowfall numbers are still being publicized. 

All this being said, wouldn't it be something if with this winter this thing makes a last minute shift north after all the forecasts are updated this afternoon? Mother nature messing with everyone. 

The Feb 2016 snow was a synoptic storm.  The way the gradient laid out just made it look like a lake effect event.  I remember there was uncertainty about amounts in Chicago before that one but you knew the sharp gradient was going to set up somewhere around the city a few days in advance.  In this upcoming storm, it looked like the northwest edge would be nowhere near the city up until the recent runs.  

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

We are the king of 6-10” snowfalls after all. Heck there’s been multiple 9-11” ones as of late. Would be nice to break the 12” hump once again 

Exactly. 6-10" snowfalls dramatically increased the past decade over the area, but the 12"+ ones remain on the elusive side. Last 1 at DTW was 16.7" on Feb 1/2, 2015

[Castaway]

Woke up to weather channel showing 8-12” for Chicago and I’m like 

came here and starting looking around and I’m like  game still on. 

 

No final call yet, but feeling confident 8”+ around here in Oak Brook. Coffee should be ready now

[A-L-E-K]

1 minute ago, Castaway said:

Woke up to weather channel showing 8-12” for Chicago and I’m like 

came here and starting looking around and I’m like  game still on. 

 

No final call yet, but feeling confident 8”+ around here in Oak Brook. Coffee should be ready now

Be prepared to be let down

[Sciascia]

Whenever I want to be aggravated, I can’t help but think of the meteorologists that have been put in these situations way too often this winter. It’s tough for them to be put in a winning situation. On one hand, headlines can be issued too hastily. On the other, should a 10+ inch snowstorm shown at 48hrs actually pan out & they wait until closer to the event to issue headlines, there will be those people complaining that a proper “heads up” wasn’t given.

With all that being said, the model volatility for events beyond 24hrs this season has been nothing like I can remember. Hopefully this season is just an anomaly & not the start of a “new normal” for winter seasons.

[WestMichigan]

GRR just jumped in on the advisory parade with 4"-7".  They are including the central part of the state south.  Maybe they see something I don't.

[A-L-E-K]

lol^