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Mid-week potential of something somewhere


Chicago Storm
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That NAM run is a thing of beauty. Still not on the hype train, but if trends continue today...The slowing of the main vort definitely allows for better phasing. There would be a legit period of snow and gusty winds in SEMI should a NAM-type solution verify. It would be something to get three 6"+ storms in a warm winter like this. DTX also mentions the possibility of some "rather impressive snow showers" on Thursday with the combination of wraparound moisture, lake effect activity, and the strong CAA. The ceiling for this one is pretty high if the phasing comes together well. Not sure we'll hit that, but feeling better with a decent hit.

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56 minutes ago, Baum said:

another day of model watching....game still on.....

See the foreign model bleeding continues even as 12k NAM gives Champaign WSW. Hoosier and Detroit reeling in the Ukie. After this year no complaints about NW and stronger after SE weaker has ruled this winter

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14 minutes ago, King James said:


Skillings blog making it sound like I got a Rainer on the way with 1-3 inches of slop

LOT going with mainly rain for us too. 1-2" total snow. Oh well, maybe next winter...:(

Tonight: Rain. Steady temperature around 38. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 

Tuesday: Rain and snow. High near 36. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 

Tuesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 11pm. Low around 29. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

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8 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

See the foreign model bleeding continues even as 12k NAM gives Champaign WSW. Hoosier and Detroit reeling in the Ukie. After this year no complaints about NW and stronger after SE weaker has ruled this winter

perhaps. I sort of like where much of N. Ill sits for this one. Agreed, anything can happen, shifts, weakening trends, temps. too warm for accumulation, and so on. I've pretty much experienced every way for an event to underperform. Either way, were in the game, and tracking and watching model trends along with forum banter is 80% of the fun for me. Perhaps, we'll end up presently surprised and the naysayers can just sit back and enjoy as well.:D

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14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

6z Euro with another jump weaker and SE...so far.


 

Just start looking at Ukie as soon as possible.I think its overlooked since it doesn't run out as far or as often. Maybe its not buying into delayed phase

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Yeah I have no joke 3' in 48 hr euro kuchera fantasy snow this winter. The king is having a shit winter but the gfs has been somehow even worse. 

Sad to see another event vanish on d2 but it's par for the course this winter. Glad I didn't go too bullish on the final call.

Props to cary#s for the wise ukie riding, lol @ mimillman for the madison special call.

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As an observer seems like no mets outside RC are acknowledging the models keep showing the heavier snows south/East

I know a ton goes into it but hyper-locally almost all maps posted since yesterday have IKK in the 5-11 range. Probably high for sure with ratios etc etc - but Skilling and some other P&Cs have me 1-3 inches of snow after rain

Very unusual for me to be sitting here thinking “they” are adding to the confusion

Happy to have this last one (fingers crossed) to track regardless

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1 minute ago, King James said:

As an observer seems like no mets outside RC are acknowledging the models keep showing the heavier snows south/East

I know a ton goes into it but hyper-locally almost all maps posted since yesterday have IKK in the 5-11 range. Probably high for sure with ratios etc etc - but Skilling and some other P&Cs have me 1-3 inches of snow after rain

Very unusual for me to be sitting here thinking “they” are adding to the confusion

Happy to have this last one (fingers crossed) to track regardless

Honestly, I don’t hate where we sit right now. I’ve been thinking 3-6” for awhile, mostly due to marginal thermals/ratios. Alas, too much movement in guidance to really feel comfortable. As for LOT and Skilling, seems they’re all in on the GFS. Not sure I’d go that route, but I’m certainly not a pro met. FWIW, Skilling’s RPM had 7.5” for us on today’s morning news. I’d take that and run. 

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This storm has trended yikesly. 24hrs ago I was worried about narrowly missing a big dog/the storm of the season. Now? Not so much. This thing could still become DET’s system yet.

 

What would be excellent is if we could still manage to get a BS SSW in mid march like I mentioned at the beginning of this thread to ensure maximum suffering.

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