snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 6z NAM is a money run. Lock it in and throw away the key. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Latest from ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Latest from ILX Skillings blog making it sound like I got a Rainer on the way with 1-3 inches of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 That NAM run is a thing of beauty. Still not on the hype train, but if trends continue today...The slowing of the main vort definitely allows for better phasing. There would be a legit period of snow and gusty winds in SEMI should a NAM-type solution verify. It would be something to get three 6"+ storms in a warm winter like this. DTX also mentions the possibility of some "rather impressive snow showers" on Thursday with the combination of wraparound moisture, lake effect activity, and the strong CAA. The ceiling for this one is pretty high if the phasing comes together well. Not sure we'll hit that, but feeling better with a decent hit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 56 minutes ago, Baum said: another day of model watching....game still on..... See the foreign model bleeding continues even as 12k NAM gives Champaign WSW. Hoosier and Detroit reeling in the Ukie. After this year no complaints about NW and stronger after SE weaker has ruled this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, King James said: Skillings blog making it sound like I got a Rainer on the way with 1-3 inches of slop LOT going with mainly rain for us too. 1-2" total snow. Oh well, maybe next winter... Tonight: Rain. Steady temperature around 38. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday: Rain and snow. High near 36. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Tuesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 11pm. Low around 29. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 8 minutes ago, Cary67 said: See the foreign model bleeding continues even as 12k NAM gives Champaign WSW. Hoosier and Detroit reeling in the Ukie. After this year no complaints about NW and stronger after SE weaker has ruled this winter perhaps. I sort of like where much of N. Ill sits for this one. Agreed, anything can happen, shifts, weakening trends, temps. too warm for accumulation, and so on. I've pretty much experienced every way for an event to underperform. Either way, were in the game, and tracking and watching model trends along with forum banter is 80% of the fun for me. Perhaps, we'll end up presently surprised and the naysayers can just sit back and enjoy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 6z Euro with another jump weaker and SE...so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Withering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z Euro with another jump weaker and SE...so far. Just start looking at Ukie as soon as possible.I think its overlooked since it doesn't run out as far or as often. Maybe its not buying into delayed phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Lol, gonna be a bust high hat trick for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: . solid event still, if it's the correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 solid event still, if it's the correct solution. Subtracting some for the usual Euro kutchera being too high...isn’t even a top event on the season.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Subtracting some for the usual Euro kutchera being too high...isn’t even a top event on the season. . 2.5" call looking legit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Yeah I have no joke 3' in 48 hr euro kuchera fantasy snow this winter. The king is having a shit winter but the gfs has been somehow even worse. Sad to see another event vanish on d2 but it's par for the course this winter. Glad I didn't go too bullish on the final call. Props to cary#s for the wise ukie riding, lol @ mimillman for the madison special call. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Cue the continued downward trend today. This winter won't disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 My P&C from IWX going with 1-2 Tuesday night and 2-4 on Wednesday. A pretty good AFD. If trends with the 12z suite continue they may bump up totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Should add bust potential still high. I could see marginal temps leading to minor accumulations Tuesday night followed by getting dry slotted. In fact, that’s what I’m assuming will happen to keep expectations at bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 As an observer seems like no mets outside RC are acknowledging the models keep showing the heavier snows south/East I know a ton goes into it but hyper-locally almost all maps posted since yesterday have IKK in the 5-11 range. Probably high for sure with ratios etc etc - but Skilling and some other P&Cs have me 1-3 inches of snow after rainVery unusual for me to be sitting here thinking “they” are adding to the confusion Happy to have this last one (fingers crossed) to track regardless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, King James said: As an observer seems like no mets outside RC are acknowledging the models keep showing the heavier snows south/East I know a ton goes into it but hyper-locally almost all maps posted since yesterday have IKK in the 5-11 range. Probably high for sure with ratios etc etc - but Skilling and some other P&Cs have me 1-3 inches of snow after rain Very unusual for me to be sitting here thinking “they” are adding to the confusion Happy to have this last one (fingers crossed) to track regardless Honestly, I don’t hate where we sit right now. I’ve been thinking 3-6” for awhile, mostly due to marginal thermals/ratios. Alas, too much movement in guidance to really feel comfortable. As for LOT and Skilling, seems they’re all in on the GFS. Not sure I’d go that route, but I’m certainly not a pro met. FWIW, Skilling’s RPM had 7.5” for us on today’s morning news. I’d take that and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: 6z NAM is a money run. Lock it in and throw away the key. I've seen this before. There's always that one NAM run that makes you piss your pants until the next one knocks you back down to reality. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Is the NAM depicting a better phase than the European models? This event is only 36 hours out for my neck of woods. Both pieces of energy are over land now. I'm curious as to why there are such big differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: . *NW Ohio has entered the chat* Let’s just say, I have my doubts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Hrrr being hrrr. Way too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 This point and click going to go down... down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 NAM coming in weaker and SE again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 This storm has trended yikesly. 24hrs ago I was worried about narrowly missing a big dog/the storm of the season. Now? Not so much. This thing could still become DET’s system yet. What would be excellent is if we could still manage to get a BS SSW in mid march like I mentioned at the beginning of this thread to ensure maximum suffering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Gonna be a duster by 0z at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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