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Mid-week potential of something somewhere


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Seems pretty clear that watches will have to be expanded southeast.  Question is how far.  As far as LOT is concerned, I think at least a couple tiers southeast of where it currently is.    Doubt they will expand it all the way through the cwa at this point given how large of a change that would be but there is enough model support to extend it at least through my area imo, unless the GFS is holding them hostage.  

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Seems pretty clear that watches will have to be expanded southeast.  Question is how far.  As far as LOT is concerned, I think at least a couple tiers southeast of where it currently is.    Doubt they will expand it all the way through the cwa at this point given how large of a change that would be but there is enough model support to extend it at least through my area imo, unless the GFS is holding them hostage.  

Man what a nightmare for forecasters. Most models have current watch area, esp nw portions, void of significant snows. So was our last piece of energy fully sampled on 0z runs?

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26 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Man what a nightmare for forecasters. Most models have current watch area, esp nw portions, void of significant snows. So was our last piece of energy fully sampled on 0z runs?

Yeah tonight's 00z run suite should have fully sampled the final wave.  Sort of interesting to see the UK finally bump northwest after days of showing pretty much zero here, and meanwhile the Euro actually ticked a bit more southeast.  The interaction/phasing of the two main waves seems pretty complex when you loop through the various model data.  It's no surprise all of the guidance is struggling with trying to narrow down what the effective weather will end up being.  

All that being said, I'm still optimistic that we can bang out a 6"er here.

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The WPC says to take all the non GFS models including yesterday's 12Z run of the Euro and blend them together

No significant changes were noted with the closed low as it
weakens east into the Ohio River Valley through Tuesday morning.
Regarding the upstream, large scale trough, the 00Z UKMET trended
a little slower, while the 00Z CMC trended a little faster
compared to their 12Z cycles. The 00Z ECMWF also trended slower
and slightly weaker with the trough progression beginning Tuesday
afternoon.

From Tuesday through Thursday morning, the 00Z deterministic
guidance shows reasonable agreement outside of the faster 00Z GFS,
though minor non-GFS differences remain. Given some of the changes
from cycle to cycle, the final preference will not be to jump
completely on board with the non 00Z GFS suite of models (despite
their relative agreement), but to nudge in that direction from the
12Z ECMWF position. Therefore, the final preference is to take the
12Z ECMWF and blend it with a 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NAM blend.

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1 minute ago, IllinoisWedges said:

06z NAM with a nice ORD to DET/areas north big dog. 

3k a tad different but still a nice 12"+ event for N IL and still snowing with a deepening low in N IN

3k would still be snowing well beyond that. That would be a big time hit for Chicago to Detroit

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