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Mid-week potential of something somewhere


Chicago Storm
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1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

would be nice to see the number of big dog hits in the region start increasing on the ensembles to give support to the more phased solution as opposed to the typical disjointed/flat seasonal trends

They have increased.

But not sure that support even means anything, given ENS have been big on past events this winter...

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My question is why would a phased solution be favored when AO has been record levels of positive? NAO is a bit more towards neutral, but AO will be ~+2. However it’s falling to +2 all the way from +6. Is it like AAM where the trend matters more than the actual value? I’m curious. Because I’d otherwise be expecting a more strung out/progressive system.

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Just now, hlcater said:

My question is why would a phased solution be favored when AO has been record levels of positive? NAO is a bit more towards neutral, but AO will be ~+2. However it’s falling to +2 all the way from +6. Is it like AAM where the trend matters more than the actual value? I’m curious. Because I’d otherwise be expecting a more strung out/progressive system.

I wouldn't favor a good phase/huge event like some ENS show.

Flow is still fairly steadily moving, and seasonal trend has been for unfavorable phases.

Also, the EPO which had been projected to go negative not too long ago now looks to stay neutral to positive...which won't help things.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Duration looks fairly long for some areas, at least as currently modeled.  Would help in getting some bigger totals. 

Eh, could go either way with that.

Some guidance is on the more "mild" side, which obviously with long duration, is naso good.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Eh, could go either way with that.

Some guidance is on the more "mild" side, which obviously with long duration, is naso good.

Well, it's going to have to have some length to have a shot at 12+.  Very hard to pull that off in a short duration storm unless the dynamics are just nuts.

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Re. tendency of systems this season to verify weaker and sheared out due to fast flow and lack of blocking vs. next week's set-up:

At least from what's being modeled now, there is a temporary blocky regime over North America. You won't see it on the teleconnection indices (AO forecast to decline but stay positive and NAO forecast to drop to neutral or less positive), but you can see it on the 500 mb height anomalies. Upstream and downstream ridging and most importantly a fairly strong positive height anomaly just northwest of Hudson Bay that slides southeast across northern Hudson Bay on Tuesday, which serves as psuedo west-based blocking to force the ULL underneath. If you loop the ensemble height anomalies during this period, the downstream ridging clearly slows down the flow much more than has been the case all season ahead of the bowling ball type upper level low. Images are from the 06z EPS (ECMWF Ensemble), but the 12z GEFS is a very similar idea, and would expect the 12z EPS to follow suit. Don't want to get hopes up too much yet locally, but this is part of how it could work out if things finally break our way. 

EPS.png

EPS2.png

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