UMB WX Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just where we like to see the CMC. Frankie gonna be screaming be prepared Chicago and MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Get your barbecues ready, get your propane tanks ready, get your toasts ready, get your juice ready, get your water ready, get your weather radios ready. Frankie^ I do hope this ends up being a decent storm for the Chicago-Detroit area. Need one with this winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Due for a Grand Rapids to nickysixes special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 would be nice to see the number of big dog hits in the region start increasing on the ensembles to give support to the more phased solution as opposed to the typical disjointed/flat seasonal trends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: would be nice to see the number of big dog hits in the region start increasing on the ensembles to give support to the more phased solution as opposed to the typical disjointed/flat seasonal trends They have increased. But not sure that support even means anything, given ENS have been big on past events this winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 My question is why would a phased solution be favored when AO has been record levels of positive? NAO is a bit more towards neutral, but AO will be ~+2. However it’s falling to +2 all the way from +6. Is it like AAM where the trend matters more than the actual value? I’m curious. Because I’d otherwise be expecting a more strung out/progressive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, hlcater said: My question is why would a phased solution be favored when AO has been record levels of positive? NAO is a bit more towards neutral, but AO will be ~+2. However it’s falling to +2 all the way from +6. Is it like AAM where the trend matters more than the actual value? I’m curious. Because I’d otherwise be expecting a more strung out/progressive system. I wouldn't favor a good phase/huge event like some ENS show. Flow is still fairly steadily moving, and seasonal trend has been for unfavorable phases. Also, the EPO which had been projected to go negative not too long ago now looks to stay neutral to positive...which won't help things. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 euro looks to be stepping towards a more phased solution, i think general movement today is pointing that way 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 This one has the feel of bucking the trend. silly me 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 hours ago, hlcater said: Hopefully we get an SSW in mid March so we can have more chances at snow in April. How about no 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 hr 120 on the euro is chef finger kiss 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 Euro is a dawg.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 10:1 at 138hrs is widespread 9-11 for Chicago. You know the kuchera maps are going to be hype when they're available. EDIT: weenie fuel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Duration looks fairly long for some areas, at least as currently modeled. Would help in getting some bigger totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Lock in king euro pls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: Lock in king euro pls Remember yesterday 12z when it basically had nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 That's a pretty good snow swath considering the lead system sweeps away so much moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Duration looks fairly long for some areas, at least as currently modeled. Would help in getting some bigger totals. Eh, could go either way with that. Some guidance is on the more "mild" side, which obviously with long duration, is naso good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 How's it looking today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 gfs came in lame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Eh, could go either way with that. Some guidance is on the more "mild" side, which obviously with long duration, is naso good. Well, it's going to have to have some length to have a shot at 12+. Very hard to pull that off in a short duration storm unless the dynamics are just nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Re. tendency of systems this season to verify weaker and sheared out due to fast flow and lack of blocking vs. next week's set-up: At least from what's being modeled now, there is a temporary blocky regime over North America. You won't see it on the teleconnection indices (AO forecast to decline but stay positive and NAO forecast to drop to neutral or less positive), but you can see it on the 500 mb height anomalies. Upstream and downstream ridging and most importantly a fairly strong positive height anomaly just northwest of Hudson Bay that slides southeast across northern Hudson Bay on Tuesday, which serves as psuedo west-based blocking to force the ULL underneath. If you loop the ensemble height anomalies during this period, the downstream ridging clearly slows down the flow much more than has been the case all season ahead of the bowling ball type upper level low. Images are from the 06z EPS (ECMWF Ensemble), but the 12z GEFS is a very similar idea, and would expect the 12z EPS to follow suit. Don't want to get hopes up too much yet locally, but this is part of how it could work out if things finally break our way. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Euro ENS mean looks great for many can't wait to see some individual members.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Don't want to get hopes up too much yet locally buried it is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I'll fire off Ricky's Memo to, Frankie. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 EPS have several 10-20" dawgs in the region, few even higher. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: EPS have several 10-20" dawgs in the region, few even higher. This is a pretty decent signal. Factoring in ratios, that’s a nice mean this far out. Definitely a fair amount of big dogs 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 looks like some big dogs showing up in the GEFS as well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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