McHenrySnow Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 3K NAM. Still snowing in IL, WI, MI, IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Is the NAM slowing this event down? I haven’t been paying attention to the other model runs regarding the duration, but this run has it snowing from 12z Tuesday until 00z-03z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 FWIW the 21z RAP shows a 997mb low near Champaign at 12z Tue, with snow ripping over north IL into east IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Based on Kuchera tho I've never held much stock in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 3km NAM is a bit healthier into Southern Wisconsin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: FWIW the 21z RAP shows a 997mb low near Champaign at 12z Tue, with snow ripping over north IL into east IA. Playing right into the amped up bias at that range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 I think we all need to take a step back and relax. At least for those of us in Chicagoland. We've done it. We're in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Based on Kuchera tho I've never held much stock in that. Kuchera is actually better than the standard 10:1 because its actually showing lower ratios which are much more realistic for this storm, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Based on Kuchera tho I've never held much stock in that. I used that since ratios are supposed to be worse than 10:1. The 10:1 maps paint 14.6 for both ORD & downtown Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Playing right into the amped up bias at that range. That's why I had to go check it out lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, Malacka11 said: I think we all need to take a step back and relax. At least for those of us in Chicagoland. We've done it. We're in the game. quality post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 This run of the NAM was first hurt, but then saved by big changes at 500mb.The northern wave ends up less phased with the southern wave, thus is slower and digs more. However, the 2nd northern wave diving into the Lakes later on ends up phasing with the original northern wave.This is why the run was meh early on, but then came in with a late save.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Baum said: quality post. Second that... I'm not going to lose sleep tonight waiting for the next models overnight... With all of this uncertainty I don't see how LOT makes major changes until the 3 PM updates tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Holy shit that was a brutal last 2 pages. guess we need some model skill classes 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, UMB WX said: Holy shit that was a brutal last 2 pages. guess we need some model skill classes That’s what I get for trying to read. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, UMB WX said: Holy shit that was a brutal last 2 pages. guess we need some model skill classes We needed a good thread. Been years since a high quality one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Trends the last 12 -18 hours have been good but still a lot of work to be done. NAM has a donut hole over Toronto. But a decent 3-5" away from the Lake. The storm evolved differently this run than previous runs. Regardless, ratios will likely be 8:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Holy shit that was a brutal last 2 pages. guess we need some model skill classes Small melt downs are good for the soul. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: We needed a good thread. Been years since a high quality one. Fo Sho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: We needed a good thread. Been years since a high quality one. Jan 10-12 was a quality thread rainer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Looking like another 2-4 incher here, story of every storm this winter. Whoopty do! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Second that... I'm not going to lose sleep tonight waiting for the next models overnight... With all of this uncertainty I don't see how LOT makes major changes until the 3 PM updates tomorrow...Aside from expanding watches southeast most likely Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: This run of the NAM was first hurt, but then saved by big changes at 500mb. The northern wave ends up less phased with the southern wave, thus is slower and digs more. However, the 2nd northern wave diving into the Lakes later on ends up phasing with the original northern wave. This is why the run was meh early on, but then came in with a late save. . Slower is better, allows for wave 2 to phase with wave 3 in MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Small melt downs are good for the soul. And we all have post traumatic stress disorder from this winter. We’re all triggered hahaha. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 This isn't a shot at the model -this is me trying to further get everyone's hopes up- but the storm has regained some substance on the 00z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Aside from expanding watches southeast most likely Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I feel for you guys making these decisions. From a forecasting perspective (and academically for lack of a better word) knowing that someone within a 50-75 mile range is going to get a big snow means you hit the mark as a forecasting office but that doesn’t help the PR side of things for the person who was told they were going to get a “big” storm and ends up with what they perceive as nothing. Doesn’t help that there are now so many models that people have access to that start bringing attention (or hyping more likely) an “event” before all the data is there to make a reasonable forecast. Still need the forecast to be like Back to the Future 2 where Doc Brown says “too bad the postal service isn’t nearly as efficient as the weather service” as he counts down the end of a rainstorm to the second. :-) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 I’ll check back after lunch tomorrow. who am I kidding. See you at 6am. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 CAMs are almost universally northwest of the globals, but that probably doesn't mean a whole lot as they kind of tend to overamp towards the end of their runs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 Not surprisingly the GFS is taking a step south, but still a quality run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 GFS definitely a step in the right direction. Keep it going :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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