Maneee Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Yeah very good write up on LOT. Interesting on the guidance trends, at least to end that a more northerly track is usually favored by the NAM, not the GFS. 0z tonight may jerk us one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 31 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: ILX latest graphic ILX is clearly hugging GFS *double face palm* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 The differences between today's 3km NAM runs were definitely lol worthy. For example... The 12z The 18z And an exclusive sneak peek at tonight's new 00z.. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 The cutoffs in N IL in the forecasts really make messaging storms like this tricky. A 25 mile change impacts a huge population area. I will say this is the best the "Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast" graphic has looked for me all winter, especially 36ish hours from the event... Fingers crossed... https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Anyone know what 18z euro showed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 If it ain't posted, it ain't good 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 It’s not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: If it ain't posted, it ain't good truer words never said..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 I'm grasping for straws here #desperation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: I'm grasping for straws here #desperation huh? am I missing something? This is from ILX:AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE IL RIVER AND 3-5 INCHES OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES, WITH OVER 6 INCHES NW OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES POSTED MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Euro isn’t out for another 30-45 mins and can we stop with the unrealistic 10:1 maps as ratios won’t be that high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 18z Euro is at 6pm central, I think? Anywho, another new LOT graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baum said: huh? am I missing something? This is from ILX:AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE IL RIVER AND 3-5 INCHES OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES, WITH OVER 6 INCHES NW OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES POSTED MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING. I'm the along the IL river part where cutoff is very sharp. Lol. I'm definitely not sitting comfortably esp if GFS is right. Nam/euro are decent here but I'm skeptical for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro isn’t out for another 30-45 mins and can we stop with the unrealistic 10:1 maps as ratios won’t be that high Do you think ratios will be closer to 12:1 like the Euro Kuchera has been showing...or 8:1 like the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 6:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, A-L-E-K said: 6:1 In all my years I've never seen someone hit a ratio accurately. You'll know when it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Do you think ratios will be closer to 12:1 like the Euro Kuchera has been showing...or 8:1 like the NAM? 6:1 to 10:1 will be the likely range, do to the marginal SFC temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 6:1 That bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Do you think ratios will be closer to 12:1 like the Euro Kuchera has been showing...or 8:1 like the NAM? I think we'll see 12:1 or possibly a bit better at the end, not for a total event average though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 It's definitely been the winter of marginal temps and lame ratios. It's too bad because we have had plenty of moisture laden storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Here's a tip... Euro runs on a 6 hour schedule like other models. The timing is just pushed back. So since the 12z run starts coming out a little before 12 pm central time, it means the 18z run starts just before 6 pm central. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, Sciascia said: 18z Euro is at 6pm central, I think? Anywho, another new LOT graphic: I'd like to buy a vowel please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 This is the first time all winter that I have felt it's more than just a hail mary pass to get 6+ imby. There have only been 1 or 2 other times where it was even a remote possibility if everything went right, but I would almost give it 50/50 odds at this point. Temps are marginal of course, especially through most of Tuesday. Duration looks fairly long though with periods of moderate/heavy rates possible and a period of lake enhancement. So overall I am optimistic for at least a moderate hit in the worst case scenario, with potential to get toward major category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is the first time all winter that I have felt it's more than just a hail mary pass to get 6+ imby. There have only been 1 or 2 other times where it was even a remote possibility if everything went right, but I would almost give it 50/50 odds at this point. Temps are marginal of course, especially through most of Tuesday. Duration looks fairly long though with periods of moderate/heavy rates possible and a period of lake enhancement. So overall I am optimistic for at least a moderate hit in the worst case scenario, with potential to get toward major category. I feel like you and I switched souls now. Suddenly, I'm the one worried about the weakening trend while you are the voice of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 18z Euro coming in SE and weaker yet again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 18z Euro... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro... When that last piece of energy (0z) gets sampled and the models are still going south I’ll be really worried. This wasn’t what I wanted to see in any event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 I'm betting on 8:1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 I think GFS is northern outlier and Euro likely a south outlier. I'm thinking something in between, I feel like NAM is closest to that in between. Crazy how bad model guidance has been all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro... After that suite with a near unanimous agreement on 10"+ for Madison... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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