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Mid-week potential of something somewhere


Chicago Storm
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lol WPC disco...

19z update: The UKMET remains too far south and the CMC elongated more positively in the orientation of the trof Wednesday to delay it even further with very little/no interaction out of the Arctic stream to continue rejecting the UKMET/CMC from any preference at this time. The 12z GFS remains steadfast to continue to heavily favor it in the blend. The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. Interestingly, the Arctic shortwave continues to trend sharper/further south in all guidance. So will not break from initial preference, of the 12z GEFS/GFS/NAM/ECMWF and 00z ECENS through 26.00z and remove 12z GFS afterward weighting heavy to GEFS.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

lol WPC disco...

19z update: The UKMET remains too far south and the CMC elongated more positively in the orientation of the trof Wednesday to delay it even further with very little/no interaction out of the Arctic stream to continue rejecting the UKMET/CMC from any preference at this time. The 12z GFS remains steadfast to continue to heavily favor it in the blend. The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. Interestingly, the Arctic shortwave continues to trend sharper/further south in all guidance. So will not break from initial preference, of the 12z GEFS/GFS/NAM/ECMWF and 00z ECENS through 26.00z and remove 12z GFS afterward weighting heavy to GEFS.

Heavy GFS blend. RIP

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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

lol WPC disco...

19z update: The UKMET remains too far south and the CMC elongated more positively in the orientation of the trof Wednesday to delay it even further with very little/no interaction out of the Arctic stream to continue rejecting the UKMET/CMC from any preference at this time. The 12z GFS remains steadfast to continue to heavily favor it in the blend. The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. Interestingly, the Arctic shortwave continues to trend sharper/further south in all guidance. So will not break from initial preference, of the 12z GEFS/GFS/NAM/ECMWF and 00z ECENS through 26.00z and remove 12z GFS afterward weighting heavy to GEFS.

I mean at least that explains what the offices are doing re watches 

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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

lol WPC disco...

19z update: The UKMET remains too far south and the CMC elongated more positively in the orientation of the trof Wednesday to delay it even further with very little/no interaction out of the Arctic stream to continue rejecting the UKMET/CMC from any preference at this time. The 12z GFS remains steadfast to continue to heavily favor it in the blend. The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. Interestingly, the Arctic shortwave continues to trend sharper/further south in all guidance. So will not break from initial preference, of the 12z GEFS/GFS/NAM/ECMWF and 00z ECENS through 26.00z and remove 12z GFS afterward weighting heavy to GEFS.

This is probably the reason all the offices are going with such high totals and watches

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

A few sloppy inches on the front end then drizzle/slot. Final call.

I agree. After today's 48F, I'm content with that. Ready for Spring. 

Little icing on the cake to go above avg in an incredibly warm winter. Not something you would normally expect. 

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LOT:

 

 THE GENERAL TREND IN GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN  
TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF  
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF  
WOULD BOTH SUGGEST A FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT IN THE AXIS OF  
HEAVIER SNOW THAN WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS  
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, DESPITE THE  
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS BOTH FAVORING NORTHERN CWA  
INTO SOUTHERN WI. FOR PLACEMENT, THIS FORECAST CYCLE LEANED TOWARD  
THE MORE NORTHERN MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, SO AS TO ONLY  
TREND THE FORECAST SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN MAKE A LARGE SOUTHWARD  
ONLY TO HAVE LATER RUNS SHIFT BACK NORTH. 

 

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

lol WPC disco...

The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF.

This part makes no sense unless the last part was supposed to be GEFS/EPS.  

A puzzling discussion for multiple reasons.

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