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Mid-week potential of something somewhere


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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

It seems the UK was the only model to see early on that the two waves would be too far apart.  The other models are finally seeing it.

The Euro may be the king, but it's the king of Turdistan.  It has been just about as bad this winter as every other model.

No effin way the UK sniffed that out so early.  But its puzzling how it might pull that feat off.

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Just now, UMB WX said:

No effin way the UK sniffed that out so early.  But its puzzling how it might pull that feat off.

post mortems get done after events not during. Way to early to declare any model victories at this stage as todays model runs vs. NWS watches being posted show.

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My personal take because I'm not working until Tuesday and have no prior knowledge of how it went at the office today...

1) I would've held off on any watches today in light of increased uncertainty with today's guidance

2) Since DVN probably boxed in to there being watches issued today, I respectfully disagree with not including Cook, DuPage, Kendall, Will and LaSalle and Grundy in the watch. 12z GFS aside, a majority of the guidance still with a heavy snow swath favors including those counties.

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Quote

A robust region of mid level deformation is forecast to develop
along the remnant mid level front over Se Mi on Tuesday aftn/Tues
night. The ECMWF/Canadian/Ukmet solutions, which are a little farther
south with the upper low, suggest a stronger/faster dynamic response
as the wave lifts into Lower Mi Wednesday. These solutions contract
the baroclinic zone right over Se Mi, thus pivoting the mid level
deformation overhead and giving a good portion of Se Mi accumulating
snow, particularly Tues night through Wed. The NAM and GFS are a
little farther north/faster. These solutions suggest this
intensification occurring farther north, leading to a more
progressive mid level deformation axis that strengthens mainly north
and west of the forecast area. The NAM/GFS solutions are also a
little warmer over Se Mi with much less snow (with the mid level dry
slot possibly affecting portions of the area). So obviously there is
a good deal of forecast uncertainty at this time. Later forecast
cycles as we near this event will narrow down the uncertainty. Both
camps do hit the Saginaw Valley and thumb regions with a good period
of forcing, suggesting higher probabilities of accumulating snow in
the north attm.

DTX AFD

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Just now, UMB WX said:

A watch was justified.  I don't agree with how strong they went with it at 7-12.   Possibility of 6+ is not crazy though

Justified for maybe Racine and Kenosha. Maybe south end of MKE but that's about it. Trends on everything but the GFS have been south for over 24 hours now.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Justified for maybe Racine and Kenosha. Maybe south end of MKE but that's about it. Trends on everything but the GFS have been south for over 24 hours now.

Ok.  I definitely would have put a little more effort in to it but, this is the MKE office we're talking about. 

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well the trend definitely seems to be for less phasing and more like 2 separate waves. Can we just have one storm this winter that actually trends positively as we get closer? Lol

Curious, what did yesterday's 18Z NAM show you getting accumulation wise versus this afternoon's run?

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