hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 It seems the UK was the only model to see early on that the two waves would be too far apart. The other models are finally seeing it. The Euro may be the king, but it's the king of Turdistan. It has been just about as bad this winter as every other model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Alek still sitting golden at the moment. May change by 0z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Lots of interesting choices on watches today. They more or less reflect the guidance from yesterday opposed to what we're seeing now. Not entirely sure I follow that line of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Moosey2323 said: It's not uncommon for watches to turn into advisories just ignore the wsw worry warts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: It seems the UK was the only model to see early on that the two waves would be too far apart. The other models are finally seeing it. The Euro may be the king, but it's the king of Turdistan. It has been just about as bad this winter as every other model. No effin way the UK sniffed that out so early. But its puzzling how it might pull that feat off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Those watches seem to be following GFS. Bad idea. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, UMB WX said: No effin way the UK sniffed that out so early. But its puzzling how it might pull that feat off. post mortems get done after events not during. Way to early to declare any model victories at this stage as todays model runs vs. NWS watches being posted show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 We need a 2015 situation now! Ghd 2 was fun because of the last minute model cranking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Baum said: post mortems get done after events not during. Way to early to declare any model victories at this stage as todays model runs vs. NWS watches being posted show. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 NAM went from 11.1" to 4.7" here between the 12z and 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 My personal take because I'm not working until Tuesday and have no prior knowledge of how it went at the office today...1) I would've held off on any watches today in light of increased uncertainty with today's guidance2) Since DVN probably boxed in to there being watches issued today, I respectfully disagree with not including Cook, DuPage, Kendall, Will and LaSalle and Grundy in the watch. 12z GFS aside, a majority of the guidance still with a heavy snow swath favors including those counties.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Quote A robust region of mid level deformation is forecast to develop along the remnant mid level front over Se Mi on Tuesday aftn/Tues night. The ECMWF/Canadian/Ukmet solutions, which are a little farther south with the upper low, suggest a stronger/faster dynamic response as the wave lifts into Lower Mi Wednesday. These solutions contract the baroclinic zone right over Se Mi, thus pivoting the mid level deformation overhead and giving a good portion of Se Mi accumulating snow, particularly Tues night through Wed. The NAM and GFS are a little farther north/faster. These solutions suggest this intensification occurring farther north, leading to a more progressive mid level deformation axis that strengthens mainly north and west of the forecast area. The NAM/GFS solutions are also a little warmer over Se Mi with much less snow (with the mid level dry slot possibly affecting portions of the area). So obviously there is a good deal of forecast uncertainty at this time. Later forecast cycles as we near this event will narrow down the uncertainty. Both camps do hit the Saginaw Valley and thumb regions with a good period of forcing, suggesting higher probabilities of accumulating snow in the north attm. DTX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 minute ago, UMB WX said: ? was referring to Hawkeye stating the UKMET being correct. Probably should have responded to him versus your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, UMB WX said: just ignore the wsw worry warts Yeah just blindly believe a watch that has no chance of verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, madwx said: the text for the watch is 7-12" for MSN. That's just taking the GFS straight and disregarding any other guidance I have no problem with a watch. But I would have used the text of LOT. Potential of 6" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 18z NAM Chicago proper due well but East Iowa and south central Wisconsin don’t. Don’t feel real comfortable that the weaker south and East trend won’t continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Stebo said: Yeah just blindly believe a watch that has no chance of verifying... A watch was justified. I don't agree with how strong they went with it at 7-12. Possibility of 6+ is not crazy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baum said: was referring to Hawkeye stating the UKMET being correct. Probably should have responded to him versus your post. Gotcha, sorry. It is puzzling how it stayed away from any resemblance of an earlier phase at some point though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Well the trend definitely seems to be for less phasing and more like 2 separate waves. Can we just have one storm this winter that actually trends positively as we get closer? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, UMB WX said: A watch was justified. I don't agree with how strong they went with it at 7-12. Possibility of 6+ is not crazy though Justified for maybe Racine and Kenosha. Maybe south end of MKE but that's about it. Trends on everything but the GFS have been south for over 24 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z NAM Chicago proper due well but East Iowa and south central Wisconsin don’t. Don’t feel real comfortable that the weaker south and East trend won’t continue. I'll take it. 4.4" would make the top 2 event this winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Justified for maybe Racine and Kenosha. Maybe south end of MKE but that's about it. Trends on everything but the GFS have been south for over 24 hours now. Ok. I definitely would have put a little more effort in to it but, this is the MKE office we're talking about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ready 2 b buried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Well the trend definitely seems to be for less phasing and more like 2 separate waves. Can we just have one storm this winter that actually trends positively as we get closer? Lol Curious, what did yesterday's 18Z NAM show you getting accumulation wise versus this afternoon's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 DMX issued Winter Storm Watch for some of their counties. I smell a bust since the models disagree (hardly any significant snow for central Iowa). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Timing could have played some part and offices on the edges maybe felt it prudent to get a heads up out just in case. Tough spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Is Jackstraw reeling in another medium dog?? Just sitting back enjoying the L&O Valley show lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 I'd settle for 50 mi SE of the 18z NAM. Not perfect but in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baum said: Curious, what did yesterday's 18Z NAM show you getting accumulation wise versus this afternoon's run? Like 1-2in. Big increase for me today. But not getting sucked in. Probably will trend back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ukie gaining momentum. Starting to take control of the fight. Pull a little on the loose string and it all falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now