Hoosier Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 18z GFS is south again, to nobody's surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: @RCNYILWX could go into it further if he wants, but yea kind of. Ugh, yeah what a headache for them when they have to play the hands they're dealt. GFS was such a detriment to this storm...NAM playing footsie with a late night hookup from canada gets denied. Euro is still steady eddie but can call in sick when you need its services the most. To be fair to the models this was a pretty delicate high potential impact storm that just found every way possible to not come together in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 At this rate, whatever does fall in northern IL if anything, rates will not be strong enough to accumulate on paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 WPC sticking to the 8"+ band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Send the hate mail their way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: WPC sticking to the 8"+ band Eventually someone will get that but I don't think it will be that far SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Only this winter could two back-to-back 50 degree days be followed by a warning criteria snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 It now looks quite possible that this area, and the QC won't receive a single flake out of this. What an amazing collapse. The 06z 3km NAM showed a stripe of 12-15" for the area. That's 14hrs ago when that model came out lol. Wow. EDIT: From the COD kuchera method, 06z had 15.7" for MLI. The new 18z has 0.1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 GEFS members coming in with the Detroit special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 It’ll be the Cleveland special at 00z at this rate 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 18Z GFS does some wild stuff, I'm a bit skeptical of such an amplified solution. I'd feel more confident riding the 12Z ECMWF with a 5-6" call for most of Toronto. Wouldn't be surprised to see some precip issues with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowcaine said: 18Z GFS does some wild stuff, I'm a bit skeptical of such an amplified solution. I'd feel more confident riding the 12Z ECMWF with a 5-6" call for most of Toronto. Wouldn't be surprised to see some precip issues with this one. i can dig it. Seeing where we were, i doubt anyone will be complaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: i can dig it. Seeing where we were, i doubt anyone will be complaining. Yeah I agree, honestly I just wanted one more 4"+ before the season wraps up. I'm more interested in the wind and blowing snow potential with this one than the snowfall amounts. I think we will need to get really lucky to be in the sweet spot for big amounts like that without precip issues affecting amounts. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ottawa and Montreal get hit harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 maybe the thinking is that these runs are too exaggerated south?? Don’t know why LOT would still have these totals otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 17 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: i can dig it. Seeing where we were, i doubt anyone will be complaining. I fully lied earlier. I said I didnt want a 2-4" sloppy mess but I mean if its coming I might as well get a bit excited. The Nam and GFS were hilarious to look at, spitting out 30-50cm GTA-Hamilton wide. Heading up to Haliburton this weekend so hoping the squalls arent that bad along the 400. Though all indications are they could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Yes I was expecting rain days ago. Yes I'm in a watch now. But I'm hardcore skeptical. Lol. Esp with models still shifting around. Going with the good ol' wait and see what happens. My current forecast is 0-6in. Lol. Would be nice to actually have a snowstorm without a trash antecedent air mass. Lol. But hey this is good for winter 2019-2020. I think our biggest snow this yr here was like 4.5in. So potential to break that if everything pans out. We shall see. Curious if 0z runs continue the downfall or maybe trend back somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 5 hours ago, UMB WX said: 6-8" on Euro is still a Big Dog storm for, SE, MI standards. Actually this will be the third snow storm of 6 inches or more. This is actually very routine for the northern suburbs of Detroit, extremely routine. The statement couldn’t be further from the truth. Just a really poor attempt at a joke. Now a big dog for this area is definitely 10-18 inches but we never touch 18 inches but we usually cap off at about 17 at the highest 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago12 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 I’ll be positive for Chicago. Because this forecast is so wild, may be it autocorrects with tonight’s runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Surprise phase. Chicago buried with 16”. School cancelled for days. Public angry that they got more than forecasted. Book it. *Takes a strong pull of the weenie koolaide* I mean if we can lose a storm so close like it’s 1990, certainly we can gain one.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 lol @ pouting over a snow climo jab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, dmc76 said: Actually this will be the third snow storm of 6 inches or more. This is actually very routine for the northern suburbs of Detroit extremely routine the statement couldn’t be further from the truth. Just a really poor attempt at a joke. Now a big dog for this area is definitely 10-18 inches but we never touch 18 inches but we usually cap off at about 17 at the highest 10 to 18? lol. More like a 8-12" forecast considering how shitty of a climo Detroit south is for big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, snowstormcanuck said: lol @ pouting over a snow climo jab. Just a really poor attempt at a joke I just had to let them now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, UMB WX said: 10 to 18? lol. More like 8-12 considering how shitty of a climo Detroit south is for big storms. You were only talking about Detroit? No you were not. You were talking about Southeast Michigan as a whole it’s a little bit bigger than Detroit. Have you looked at the map of Southeast Michigan lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, dmc76 said: Just a really poor attempt at a joke I just had to let them now. Well, I'm sure UMB WX has been taught a lesson and won't do it again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Uh yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 minute ago, UMB WX said: Uh yeah. For many decades the records were taken at city airport which is arguably one of the worst spots for snowfall in the entire state of Michigan. Now if you head west by 20 miles or north by 20 miles snowfall probably almost increases by 15 to 20 inches per season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 18z Euro another big jump SE. Gonna be a DAB here on 0z runs at this rate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro another big jump SE. Gonna be a DAB here on 0z runs at this rate. Post it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Post it Kuchera vs 10:1 A thousand edits later I get the format right 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, MIstorm97 said: Kuchera vs 10:1 still time to get to my DAB+ first call for DET Can’t believe how terribly the models have handled this system. 00z shall be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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