Stebo Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Regional GEM is pretty in line with the NAMs especially the 3km. Maybe a bit stronger with the initial low at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Regional GEM is pretty in line with the NAMs especially the 3km. Maybe a bit stronger with the initial low at 48 hours. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 GFS is a Kenosha special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just so its here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 The trend downward here continues on the GFS. Still warning criteria but losing about 2” per run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maneee said: Just so its here. Did the GFS slow down also and phase later like the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, Cary67 said: Did the GFS slow down also and phase later like the NAM? It does, but is also much different/better earlier on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, Cary67 said: Did the GFS slow down also and phase later like the NAM? Yeah. Pretty much. Not the same evolution but it is a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 00z Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z Canadian Not too shabby! Looks good for the first/last WSW event. I miss the really big stuff but that's just being both nostalgic and greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 The UK continues to slowly improve. The western end of the snow band has shifted further north. It's still not as robust as other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Interesting thing. The Lake Enhancement end of this is so evident on every single model no matter the resolution. I wonder how that has an effect on 1. Snow ratios and 2. Intensity. We've all seen that mixed flake size stuff-- so its really just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 0z euro pretty unimpressive. 1st wave pretty much a dud. Better organized 2nd wave but not as robust as other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 For all Detroit/ Toledo people out there, the Euro shifted south, with the 850mb low tracking near both cities with 850mb temps of -6C. 5.7" to 6.8" near Detroit, 5.3" at Toledo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Taking this to the bank 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Can anyone post the Euro Kuchera map for further sw in IL and adjacent IA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Can anyone post the Euro Kuchera map for further sw in IL and adjacent IA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Seems pretty clear that watches will have to be expanded southeast. Question is how far. As far as LOT is concerned, I think at least a couple tiers southeast of where it currently is. Doubt they will expand it all the way through the cwa at this point given how large of a change that would be but there is enough model support to extend it at least through my area imo, unless the GFS is holding them hostage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Seems pretty clear that watches will have to be expanded southeast. Question is how far. As far as LOT is concerned, I think at least a couple tiers southeast of where it currently is. Doubt they will expand it all the way through the cwa at this point given how large of a change that would be but there is enough model support to extend it at least through my area imo, unless the GFS is holding them hostage. Man what a nightmare for forecasters. Most models have current watch area, esp nw portions, void of significant snows. So was our last piece of energy fully sampled on 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 41 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: Taking this to the bank I’m surprised at the efficiency of the ratios for such a marginal event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 26 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Man what a nightmare for forecasters. Most models have current watch area, esp nw portions, void of significant snows. So was our last piece of energy fully sampled on 0z runs? Yeah tonight's 00z run suite should have fully sampled the final wave. Sort of interesting to see the UK finally bump northwest after days of showing pretty much zero here, and meanwhile the Euro actually ticked a bit more southeast. The interaction/phasing of the two main waves seems pretty complex when you loop through the various model data. It's no surprise all of the guidance is struggling with trying to narrow down what the effective weather will end up being. All that being said, I'm still optimistic that we can bang out a 6"er here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 The WPC says to take all the non GFS models including yesterday's 12Z run of the Euro and blend them together No significant changes were noted with the closed low as it weakens east into the Ohio River Valley through Tuesday morning. Regarding the upstream, large scale trough, the 00Z UKMET trended a little slower, while the 00Z CMC trended a little faster compared to their 12Z cycles. The 00Z ECMWF also trended slower and slightly weaker with the trough progression beginning Tuesday afternoon. From Tuesday through Thursday morning, the 00Z deterministic guidance shows reasonable agreement outside of the faster 00Z GFS, though minor non-GFS differences remain. Given some of the changes from cycle to cycle, the final preference will not be to jump completely on board with the non 00Z GFS suite of models (despite their relative agreement), but to nudge in that direction from the 12Z ECMWF position. Therefore, the final preference is to take the 12Z ECMWF and blend it with a 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NAM blend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 06z NAM with a nice ORD to DET/areas north big dog. 3k a tad different but still a nice 12"+ event for N IL and still snowing with a deepening low in N IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, IllinoisWedges said: 06z NAM with a nice ORD to DET/areas north big dog. 3k a tad different but still a nice 12"+ event for N IL and still snowing with a deepening low in N IN 3k would still be snowing well beyond that. That would be a big time hit for Chicago to Detroit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 another day of model watching....game still on..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Call looking good, shame about the loss of a big dog tho, but this winter gonna do its thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Call looking good, shame about the loss of a big dog tho, but this winter gonna do its thing too conservative. As currently modeled taking into account enhancement you'd be in the prime area for 6+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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