hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Gonna be interesting to see if offices buy into the south trend by tomorrow morning. If not, I'm just not sure what they're thinking... The 18z Euro has nearly all the warning criteria snow south of the current WSWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 18z Euro...Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I think GFS is northern outlier and Euro likely a south outlier. I'm thinking something in between, I feel like NAM is closest to that in between. Crazy how bad model guidance has been all winter Ukie is the furthest south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Ukie is the furthest south. Does anyone even follow or believe anything that model shows? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I think GFS is northern outlier and Euro likely a south outlier. I'm thinking something in between, I feel like NAM is closest to that in between. Crazy how bad model guidance has been all winter I thought the Ukie was the southern outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Anyone have a zoomed-out map for the Michigan folks? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Does anyone even follow or believe anything that model shows? Lol It has much better verification scores than the GFS and is only slightly worse than the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, madwx said: It has much better verification scores than the GFS and is only slightly worse than the Euro. To add to this, I believe that is the case for 500 mb heights. Not sure how it compares in other aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro... compromise of euro/gfs is golden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 I guess I just don't follow it closely enough. I think anything would be better than goofus. Euro has its magical moments but definitely has struggled this winter. At this point I'm not sure what to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: After that suite with a near unanimous agreement on 10"+ for Madison... Hey this isn’t necessarily a bad thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: To add to this, I believe that is the case for 500 mb heights. Not sure how it compares in other aspects. Here is surface temps which shows a similar pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 If anything the volatility of these models would indicate NWS offices should issue winter advisories no sooner than 12 hrs out. For this event nothing sent out till tomorrow afternoon or evening for LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro... “Are you reeling in the years (yeilds)” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Author Share Posted February 24, 2020 Does anyone even follow or believe anything that model shows? LolIt has the 2nd best 500mb NH verification score, so yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 14 minutes ago, Cary67 said: If anything the volatility of these models would indicate NWS offices should issue winter advisories no sooner than 12 hrs out. For this event nothing sent out till tomorrow afternoon or evening for LOT. would you say you've been modeled consistently for 5"-10" for the last 48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It has the 2nd best 500mb NH verification score, so yes. . Like I said, don't really follow it so my bad. It seems to be way too weak and south so not really giving it much faith compared to the rest of the model suite. Definitely eager to see if we see a reversal in 0z trends or if things hold from 12z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Baum said: would you say you've been modeled consistently for 5"-10" for the last 48 hrs? Not by the Ukie. 1-2". A little more SE shift and weakening by 0Z Euro and your there. Also MKE area in the same boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Couple runs away from another nuisance duster on the euro, yikes how the mighty have fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Have a feeling some models are gonna backtrack a little overnight. Feel like between Rockford & Pontiac is gonna end up being a good hit in N IL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 With the 0z runs about to kick off with the NAM, this seems appropriate for most of us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Remember when having the euro in your camp within 30hrs wasn’t a “will we get snow at all?” but a “are ratios going to hold up? Should I plan on 12:1 or 16:1? Will I verify on the low or high end of my 8-12” forecast?”... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Not by the Ukie. 1-2". A little more SE shift and weakening by 0Z Euro and your there. Also MKE area in the same boat. if your so sure on the UK solution which is still an outlier, though a trend southeast has been apparent vs. a trend NW by all models yesterday than you certainly cannot discount the far north solution of the GFS which has been the most consistent. A consensus puts you at 5-10". I think your okay. That said, it's weather so it could crash and burn. If so, motor on...because today was a nice taste of spring, and I love that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baum said: if your so sure on the UK solution which is still an outlier, though a trend southeast has been apparent vs. a trend NW by all models yesterday than you certainly cannot discount the far north solution of the GFS which has been the most consistent. A consensus puts you at 5-10". I think your okay. That said, it's weather so it could crash and burn. If so, motor on...because today was a nice taste of spring, and I love that too. Can't discount the GFS and would reasonably expect models to slightly wobble back north by tomorrow evening. But this year seems to be the winter of SE weaker and lame so the Ukie represented that. Went for a walk today it was nice. Golf seems far off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baum said: if your so sure on the UK solution which is still an outlier, though a trend southeast has been apparent vs. a trend NW by all models yesterday than you certainly cannot discount the far north solution of the GFS which has been the most consistent. A consensus puts you at 5-10". I think your okay. That said, it's weather so it could crash and burn. If so, motor on...because today was a nice taste of spring, and I love that too. The uk has been just as consistent as the gfs...the irony is the two most consistent models are the northern and southern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Cary67 said: Can't discount the GFS and would reasonably expect models to slightly wobble back north by tomorrow evening. But this year seems to be the winter of SE weaker and lame so the Ukie represented that. Went for a walk today it was nice. Golf seems far off though. I feel you... For us this seems like the best shot of a biggie thus far this year... 24 hours will see where that wobble leads to the good snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 If it's the UK vs the GFS, I'll be siding with the UK's evolution every time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Can't discount the GFS and would reasonably expect models to slightly wobble back north by tomorrow evening. But this year seems to be the winter of SE weaker and lame so the Ukie represented that. Went for a walk today it was nice. Golf seems far off though. last two winters. Though, sometimes that's a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Nam gonna follow recent trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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