hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 DMX has issued a watch for Ames and Des Moines even though the models show little if any snow falling there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 lol WPC disco... 19z update: The UKMET remains too far south and the CMC elongated more positively in the orientation of the trof Wednesday to delay it even further with very little/no interaction out of the Arctic stream to continue rejecting the UKMET/CMC from any preference at this time. The 12z GFS remains steadfast to continue to heavily favor it in the blend. The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. Interestingly, the Arctic shortwave continues to trend sharper/further south in all guidance. So will not break from initial preference, of the 12z GEFS/GFS/NAM/ECMWF and 00z ECENS through 26.00z and remove 12z GFS afterward weighting heavy to GEFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: lol WPC disco... 19z update: The UKMET remains too far south and the CMC elongated more positively in the orientation of the trof Wednesday to delay it even further with very little/no interaction out of the Arctic stream to continue rejecting the UKMET/CMC from any preference at this time. The 12z GFS remains steadfast to continue to heavily favor it in the blend. The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. Interestingly, the Arctic shortwave continues to trend sharper/further south in all guidance. So will not break from initial preference, of the 12z GEFS/GFS/NAM/ECMWF and 00z ECENS through 26.00z and remove 12z GFS afterward weighting heavy to GEFS. Heavy GFS blend. RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: lol WPC disco... 19z update: The UKMET remains too far south and the CMC elongated more positively in the orientation of the trof Wednesday to delay it even further with very little/no interaction out of the Arctic stream to continue rejecting the UKMET/CMC from any preference at this time. The 12z GFS remains steadfast to continue to heavily favor it in the blend. The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. Interestingly, the Arctic shortwave continues to trend sharper/further south in all guidance. So will not break from initial preference, of the 12z GEFS/GFS/NAM/ECMWF and 00z ECENS through 26.00z and remove 12z GFS afterward weighting heavy to GEFS. I mean at least that explains what the offices are doing re watches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: lol WPC disco... 19z update: The UKMET remains too far south and the CMC elongated more positively in the orientation of the trof Wednesday to delay it even further with very little/no interaction out of the Arctic stream to continue rejecting the UKMET/CMC from any preference at this time. The 12z GFS remains steadfast to continue to heavily favor it in the blend. The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. Interestingly, the Arctic shortwave continues to trend sharper/further south in all guidance. So will not break from initial preference, of the 12z GEFS/GFS/NAM/ECMWF and 00z ECENS through 26.00z and remove 12z GFS afterward weighting heavy to GEFS. This is probably the reason all the offices are going with such high totals and watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: A few sloppy inches on the front end then drizzle/slot. Final call. I agree. After today's 48F, I'm content with that. Ready for Spring. Little icing on the cake to go above avg in an incredibly warm winter. Not something you would normally expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Legit lold at heavy gfs blend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 LOT: THE GENERAL TREND IN GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF WOULD BOTH SUGGEST A FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW THAN WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, DESPITE THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS BOTH FAVORING NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. FOR PLACEMENT, THIS FORECAST CYCLE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERN MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, SO AS TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN MAKE A LARGE SOUTHWARD ONLY TO HAVE LATER RUNS SHIFT BACK NORTH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Well that explains the watches but man WPC wants to go down with their own ship. Even the NAM is trending south, the only thing left is GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 I'd hope our local offices have enough experience, talent and passion to put out their own work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Stebo said: Well that explains the watches but man WPC wants to go down with their own ship. Even the NAM is trending south, the only thing left is GFS. They have been fairly bad much of this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, UMB WX said: I'd hope our local offices have enough experience, talent and passion to put out their own work. That's not fully how it works anymore. NWS heavily uses NBM now, which Ricky could go into more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: They have been fairly bad much of this season. Probably been riding GFS the whole time. They are too in the bed with the bad model to acknowledge it is a bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: That's not fully how it works anymore. NWS heavily uses NBM now, which Ricky could go into more. NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: That's not fully how it works anymore. NWS heavily uses NBM now, which Ricky could go into more. Thanks, sounds sorta like glad we don't work there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Kinda worried about how the ICON just shit itself ngl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Izzi with a great write up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Kinda worried about how the ICON just shit itself ngl I agree, the ICON has actually been decent with this event so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Kinda worried about how the ICON just shit itself ngl People crap on the ICON but just anecdotally I don't think it's been half bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 RGEM still getting into range, but will also be well south/weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Izzi is Goat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, UMB WX said: I'd hope our local offices have enough experience, talent and passion to put out their own work. Somewhere in the back channels the NGM still grinds out model data for them. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 SREF plume mean of 6.2” with a good cluster between 8-12” edit: for DKB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 18zGFS remains on the north side of models with the southern Wisconsin area getting just shy of 1 foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 GFS not budging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 ILX latest graphic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Newly updated point has 7-13" here by Wed. Not too shabby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 GFS still north. but trend in less snow here is obvious. from 10.1" to 8.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Yeah we're full on into the withering stages, sad and u hate to see it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: lol WPC disco... The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. This part makes no sense unless the last part was supposed to be GEFS/EPS. A puzzling discussion for multiple reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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