Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Canadian just totally caved southeast. It had been consistently clobbering Iowa. Now Iowa gets nothing. F this winter. Another very unreliable and inconsistent model. I wouldn't worry until euro starts caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 thread is heating up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Meltdown watch in effect.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Baum said: Meltdown watch in effect.... when this turns into a detroit special at 0z 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 GEM looks like the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Yeah this system had heartbreak hotel written all over it if you got too emotionally attached early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Lollies are nice, gut says to multiply with the .375 reality factor. Given the hype to actual amounts measured last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 I'm all in. Going 6"+ for here/QC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Latest CMC is much cooler but weaker for the GTA. Has ~4-5" across the area. The difference is quite noticeable at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 With the standard many ways to underperform and disappoint, I like the potential for an over performer. Long duration, with ratios being notoriously difficult to get accurately. With this much qpf, a 10:1 will be a substantial ground level difference over 6-7:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 And the watches begin URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1035 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY... .A slow moving winter storm system moving out of the southern plains is expected to bring snow across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois Monday night, which will continue through Tuesday night. Precipitation will start out as rain during the day Monday which will change to snow Monday evening. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times, especially Tuesday through Tuesday night. Increasing north to northwest winds may cause blowing and drifting snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The storm has the potential to be one of the strongest winter storms of the season so far. While it is too soon to determine specific snowfall amounts, there is above average confidence that this system will produce heavy snowfall amounts over portions of the watch area. IAZ063>068-076>078-087-088-ILZ002-007-009-015-016-024-240045- /O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0003.200225T0000Z-200226T1800Z/ Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington- Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside- Rock Island-Henry IL-Mercer- Including the cities of Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, and Aledo 1035 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches or higher possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Iowa and northwest Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Uncle Ukie calling the models home.lol CMC first back 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 State line south definitely the spot to set up for The Weather Channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Cary67 said: Uncle Ukie calling the models home.lol CMC first back Yep. The UK has been well southeast from the start and has never bought into what the other models were selling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: With the standard many ways to underperform and disappoint, I like the potential for an over performer. Long duration, with ratios being notoriously difficult to get accurately. With this much qpf, a 10:1 will be a substantial ground level difference over 6-7:1 I’ll say one thing, being on the west side of Lake Michigan from an incoming classic winter storm track is definitely one of the best ways to get a really good snowfall. I just hope to dear God that this doesn’t all come crashing down on Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Fully sampled at 00z tonight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: And the watches begin URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1035 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY... .A slow moving winter storm system moving out of the southern plains is expected to bring snow across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois Monday night, which will continue through Tuesday night. Precipitation will start out as rain during the day Monday which will change to snow Monday evening. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times, especially Tuesday through Tuesday night. Increasing north to northwest winds may cause blowing and drifting snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The storm has the potential to be one of the strongest winter storms of the season so far. While it is too soon to determine specific snowfall amounts, there is above average confidence that this system will produce heavy snowfall amounts over portions of the watch area. IAZ063>068-076>078-087-088-ILZ002-007-009-015-016-024-240045- /O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0003.200225T0000Z-200226T1800Z/ Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington- Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside- Rock Island-Henry IL-Mercer- Including the cities of Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, and Aledo 1035 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches or higher possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Iowa and northwest Illinois. If its too soon to determine snow amts its too soon for a WSW. Why not issue them tomorrow after 12Z runs to see if it holds up then warnings Monday evening or early Tuesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 the mimillman madison special vs cary#s ukie ridin' showdown is good 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: UK buried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 At least Alek and MSF would have quality pics to share with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 12z GEFS have tightened up on storm track. North of Ukie, south of op GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 28 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Another very unreliable and inconsistent model. I wouldn't worry until euro starts caving This Winter it seems as if all the models have been unreliable and certainly inconsistent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Fully sampled at 00z tonight? Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 my second post call is still in play. We will see what the euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: UK Ukie has been consistent with being the farthest south. Not that that makes it right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: the mimillman madison special vs cary#s ukie ridin' showdown is good Ukie's calling all the models home for supper but their late and the food ran out. Ukie has me busting high on my 2.5" call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 If you're ORD/MKE you gotta like your chances. Seems regardless of the model the snow swaths intersect in your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, Cary67 said: Ukie's calling all the models home for supper but their late and the food ran out. Ukie has me busting high on my 2.5" call I like our general location. North of the south outlier, south of the north outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 tractor beam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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