Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Given what has happened many times this season, this may be sort of where you'd want it at this distance if you're near the southern end. But each setup is different and there are no guarantees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 6:44 PM, Hoosier said: Given what has happened many times this season, this may be sort of where you'd want it at this distance if you're near the southern end. But each setup is different and there are no guarantees. Expand We kind of saw that with the past few events...In which we see guidance trend towards the furthest north possible solution, before slipping back south a bit. We'll see if that's the case this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Light winds in and below the DGZ should help with maximizing flake size assuming lift is good(it should be if the euro has any hint). I think if things line up anything like the 12z suite is hinting they could, 12" is attainable for somebody somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 6:28 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Madison has been hot recently. Expand That area and pts north have been favored area this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 EPS favoring similar area... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 6:44 PM, Hoosier said: Given what has happened many times this season, this may be sort of where you'd want it at this distance if you're near the southern end. But each setup is different and there are no guarantees. Expand one thing we do now have is all models depicting a significant event. Was not the case 24 hours ago. Building blocks.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Token alek wagons west. Brings back memories of the good ole congrats madison days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Well Euro was wetter/snowier but painted a different picture to get there. I'm leary of this being a good case for a south trend. I'm not good with temps but i'd take the weenie euro snow map with skepticism around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 6:44 PM, Hoosier said: Given what has happened many times this season, this may be sort of where you'd want it at this distance if you're near the southern end. But each setup is different and there are no guarantees. Expand Yeah, I was rather uncomfortable being in the middle of the highest snow totals for so many runs. Would rather be on the edge one way or the other at this range lol. Would hate to root for a slightly weaker/further southeast system, but if that what it takes to get into the good snows vs dry slot, I'll take it. Based on the relative weirdness with the phasing of this system we will probably see little run-to-run changes right up until the day of the storm. So basically like every other system this winter ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 The GFS ensemble isn't far from the other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 6:55 PM, hlcater said: Light winds in and below the DGZ should help with maximizing flake size assuming lift is good(it should be if the euro has any hint). I think if things line up anything like the 12z suite is hinting they could, 12" is attainable for somebody somewhere. Expand You guys are waaaay overdue for a footer. Hopefully this one can get 'er done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Punt. Next. Can't manage to get one winter storm warning criteria event this winter. So ready for severe wx. Over this nonsense 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 8:14 PM, StormChaser4Life said: Punt. Next. Can't manage to get one winter storm warning criteria event this winter. So ready for severe wx. Over this nonsense Expand Haven't really seen a good meltdown in a while despite the general futility of this winter. Definitely, seeing some cracks in this post. I suspect this storm could be the one to really push some folks over the edge given it's potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Sad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 8:56 PM, Baum said: Haven't really seen a good meltdown in a while despite the general futility of this winter. Definitely, seeing some cracks in this post. I suspect this storm could be the one to really push some folks over the edge given it's potential. Expand That was unnecessary but ok. Wouldn't exactly call that a meltdown. I'm not that upset, just annoyed and venting. Guess I could have put it in the banter thread but was reading through the posts in this thread and just put it here. This definitely is an odd storm with a complicated evolution but someone is going to cash in with all this moisture and long duration 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 8:56 PM, Baum said: Haven't really seen a good meltdown in a while despite the general futility of this winter. Definitely, seeing some cracks in this post. I suspect this storm could be the one to really push some folks over the edge given it's potential. Expand We need Beavis for some perspective 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 9:07 PM, StormChaser4Life said: That was unnecessary but ok. Wouldn't exactly call that a meltdown. I'm not that upset, just annoyed and venting. Guess I could have put it in the banter thread but was reading through the posts in this thread and just put it here. This definitely is an odd storm with a complicated evolution but someone is going to cash in with all this moisture and long duration Expand nope. I said I saw a "crack"...not a true meltdown. And the meltdowns are key to each storm thread IMHO. They add character. It's getting late and I suspect this thread may get a bit tense. 18Z NAM with a different look. Shocker. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Coming off a torch weekend it's pretty cool we even have a chance to score a little snow tues night in to wed here. Pretty much a different model left for everybody to hang hope to yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 9:10 PM, Baum said: nope. I said I saw a "crack"...not a true meltdown. And the meltdowns are key to each storm thread IMHO. They add character. It's getting late and I suspect this thread may get a bit tense. 18Z NAM with a different look. Shocker. Expand I think you're going to see a lot of shifts with this one especially up to the last second. But given with how north the northern stream energy is coming in, if there is a phase it would probably favor this where it is modeled now or more nw. But given how this winter has been anyone from ND to FL is in game *sarcasm of course* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 9:07 PM, Cary67 said: We need Beavis for some perspective Expand A meltdown is a badge of honor. Need to hold out until 0z tonight when the first wave is fully sampled, then it’s full tilt mode. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 The 18z op GFS is getting closer to the Euro. The southern edge is farther south and the heavy stuff extends farther sw into Iowa. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 ICON is further south. Cyclone bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 NAM looks a little better too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 personal take. Everything looks to far north and west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Has the feel we start reeling this one in tonight. Sorry those in the bullseye now 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 10:32 PM, Baum said: personal take. Everything looks to far north and west. Expand And it's not like we need a miracle hail mary. 3 min drill, 3 timeouts, move the chains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 I'd almost like to see the UK pull off the huge upset and models flip off WI tonight. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 GEFS well south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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