SchaumburgStormer Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I won't get sucked into watching another storm shit the bed... I won't get sucked into watching another storm shit the bed... 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I won't get sucked into watching another storm shit the bed... I won't get sucked into watching another storm shit the bed... Too many days..too many ways. Initial call 2.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Too many days..too many ways. Initial call 2.5" 3 days away from the first flakes. So close, yet so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 It will really be the cherry on top of this fail winter if this one finds a way to be another widespread dud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 6 hours ago, ILSNOW said: 12z cmc liking ALEK Meanwhile on the 12z British model... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, A-L-E-K said: It will really be the cherry on top of this fail winter if this one finds a way to be another widespread dud 18z GFS Op is pretty pedestrian if you are looking for dud. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 18z GFS Op is pretty pedestrian if you are looking for dud.18z GFS would be top event of the winter.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Few minor tweaks and that's a much better event south. Just nice to see no wholesale changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 44 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GFS would be top event of the winter. . Says a lot about how bad the winter is and I should have been more clear, that it is not a huge region wide event but a decent hit for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Conversely several of the GEFS members are in the much more significant camp so there is that and the GFS has been putrid most of the year as well. Also the mean slid the snow swath southward some which it has been doing run to run, which is good because the bigger systems dig further south compared to flatter solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, Stebo said: Says a lot about how bad the winter is and I should have been more clear, that it is not a huge region wide event but a decent hit for some. Definitely not as widespread as other models show. Only for a very small area would that be the biggest storm of this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 FWIW, the 00z ICON has shifted north quite a bit, with a solid phase. The snow band is now Iowa northeastward into WI and northern MI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Big dog on the 00z GFS for sure Ope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 The GFS is well north, but it's pretty meh. There is definitely a north trend from the models so far this evening. The NAM and ICON are more robust with the snow band, but they are not the top models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 5 hours ago, Stebo said: 18z 00Z GFS Op is pretty pedestrian if you are looking for dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 CMC hasn't budged a whole lot Edit: so commences the true model-hawking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Slowly getting over this winter but know I have to make it to to mid April before it releases it's grips fully. Probably close to average for snowfall on the winter, but hate getting to that stat in this way, quite a bit of it fell before December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, Stebo said: 18z 00Z GFS Op is pretty pedestrian if you are looking for dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 We toss that run like a frisbee this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Canadian is hilarious 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 00z UK is better than the dud 12z, but it's not nearly as far nw as other models. This run does spin up the trailing energy decently for our central/eastern members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 I don’t know what sacrifices I have to commit or how many souls I have to sell, but I’ll do it to get that UKMET run to happen. Legit blizzard in Detroit. Too bad it’s not going to happen. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 48 minutes ago, Stebo said: Look for 0Z GEFS trends towards a dud. Models all over the place. Watch Euro be SE and weak no phase.lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 We won't have a better idea of what the trailing energy will do for another 1-2 days. It won't come ashore in Washington until sometime Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 57 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: I don’t know what sacrifices I have to commit or how many souls I have to sell, but I’ll do it to get that UKMET run to happen. Legit blizzard in Detroit. Too bad it’s not going to happen. We can sacrifice you for the good of SEMI 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 00z Euro is hot for areas nw of the UK. It appears the Euro wants the trailing energy to grab ahold of the lead energy more than the UK, and it obviously tracks the trailing energy farther north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Most trends look good from overnight it appears. 6Z GFS still not on board, but once all the players get on the field I like our chances. Stay positive folks! And enjoy the sunshine and 50's next couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Usually a look worthy of hype from the euro ensembles, shame about the trash antecedent airmass tho, liking where I sit, would like it more a bit nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 And yes the hot phase and capture potential is obviously just cool and deliver the best pivots Should be storm of the year (the non joke kind) for at least some in this sub Winter in crisis mode if this isn't a major 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 This is a complicated pattern and there are numerous ways this can evolve. Depending on how strong the first and second waves are and the timing between the two. 6z GFS is probably the upper limit here with the second wave coming in further north and deepening the original low substantially. I also wouldn’t mind a better hit further south since we’ve gotten our fair share of snow here and the weenies down south could use a nice storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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