Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, PowellVolz said: Transition has got to be 1800’ ish. In to work I crossed Black Oak Ridge I agree. I'm right at 1300 feet and almost every hill I crossed heading north on HWY 27 that put me up even 200 ft there was a temp drop and snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 34 showing in my car, and it's a definite mix of rain and snow hitting my windshield. It's seems to be trying very hard to completely switch to snow here, and I'm surprised to see it happening so early. Some very big, fat flakes mixing in, and they are easily visible even in the low light of early morning. Note: Most elevations in/near my area are 1050-1300' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I agree. I'm right at 1300 feet and almost every hill I crossed heading north on HWY 27 that put me up even 200 ft there was a temp drop and snow. Similar back this way. I had a mix most of the way into Lewisburg. However, when I went over the ridge at about 1100' it was almost all snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 34 showing in my car, and it's a definite mix of rain and snow hitting my windshield. It's seems to be trying very hard to completely switch to snow here, and I'm surprised to see it happening so early. Some very big, fat flakes mixing in, and they are easily visible even in the low light of early morning. Note: Most elevations in/near my area are 1050-1300' Where’s your location Jay? I cannot remember. Glad to see you posting again. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Starting to get sleet accumulating on the greens at Work in Collierville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Starting to get sleet accumulating on the greens at Work in ColliervilleYou the pro or superintendent?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, PowellVolz said: You the pro or superintendent? . Assistant Superintendent. We’ve got two 18 hole courses so I run one, and my superintendent runs the other course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Where’s your location Jay? I cannot remember. Glad to see you posting again. . Thanks. Glad to be back in the neighborhood. I'm about 10 miles east of Sevierville, between Douglas Lake and the foothills. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Doesn’t matter much at this point but from the 00z to the 06z the NAM basically doubled its snow output on a line from Knoxville to Huntsville. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just nothing doing here. I hate the waiting, especially since I've been burned by being too far north multiple times in the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Thanks. Glad to be back in the neighborhood. I'm about 10 miles east of Sevierville, between Douglas Lake and the foothills. That’s right. Have you had any mountain wave issues this year? I noticed the last time I went to Gatlinburg that there’s a lot of tree damage on the Spur and on the Gatlinburg bypass. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 My humidity is tanking too. I was at 83 percent when the virga started now at 66 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Assistant Superintendent. We’ve got two 18 hole courses so I run one, and my superintendent runs the other course. Memphis National? Used to be AGCS in Knoxville and Atlanta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 49 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: There's some kind of front moving south through TN. That is the dry, colder air advecting in the mid/lower levels...as it pushed to my south temp went from 40/37 to 34/30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: That’s right. Have you had any mountain wave issues this year? I noticed the last time I went to Gatlinburg that there’s a lot of tree damage on the Spur and on the Gatlinburg bypass. . I live in a very unique area when it comes to those events, and I've tried to understand it, but when those occur the wind is usually almost completely calm at home. I can drive 10-15 minutes closer to the mountains, and the winds will increase exponentially. I guess if these mtn. winds are true "waves" like in water, my house must be located in the crest or ridge, and not in the trough at the bottom of the mountains. Not complaining! Anyway, I've always been fascinated with the dynamics of mtn. wave events. It's fun to drive around and observe the micro-climates when they do occur. While typing this, the precipitation here has almost completely switched to snow. Temp is still 34, so nothing is sticking. The NAM may be right that 3-4 inches may fall, but very little may stick in reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I don't know if it will be right with QPF in my area but the NAM is probably going to miss on changeover. At 10am it has snow on the Plateau and rain in the valley. The Valley appears to have mostly transitioned in areas getting QPF. Heck, I'm actually warmer than some of you way south of me at this point. The top down cooling was very efficient. If you guys get the NAM rates advertised I expect some egg on faces for some forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Radar in NMiss/NAla is rich. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 At least based on radar the precip seems more healthy and abundant than what I thought was forecasted? Regardless, here in Johnson City nothing atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I don't know if it will be right with QPF in my area but the NAM is probably going to miss on changeover. At 10am it has snow on the Plateau and rain in the valley. The Valley appears to have mostly transitioned in areas getting QPF. Heck, I'm actually warmer than some of you way south of me at this point. The top down cooling was very efficient. If you guys get the NAM rates advertised I expect some egg on faces for some forecasters. It’s definitely rate induced cooling. Got a little break and the temps went up .6 degrees . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, Utvols235 said: Memphis National? Used to be AGCS in Knoxville and Atlanta. Yeah, Memphis National. And that’s cool, y’all got some beautiful courses out that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Thickening up now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realdeal2414 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Snow finally reaching ground in Kingsport 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 Can’t post a pic right now but driving over the ridges into Oak Ridge from Morgan County I could see the snow falling and evaporating on the 3000 foot peaks just north of Oliver Springs. It really did have the look of evaporation eating op the precip and not melting. I guess this mid/ low level dry air means business. The snow was making it about 2/3 of the way down the mts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, AMZ8990 said: Thickening up now The HRRR was giving your area several inches earlier. Good luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 12z NAM coming in better than 6z. Maybe it’s picking up on a quicker transition? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I don't know how in the world it's thinking 3.4 for Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Looks like it shifted south just enough to knock me most of the way out of things. Good luck down south. Its gonna be an AN snow winter for Knoxville easily if the NAM verifies with what has already fallen plus this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Thank you all for reports! I'm still catching up from page 5, but this is time sensitive. Correlation Coefficient out of Hytop shows the rain-snow line gradually sinking south. I've highlighted my manual adjustment. Close to the radar it should be right on. Ditto for higher elevations. Farther from the radar it's higher in the cloud; so, I manually move the line north. This is still better than most color radar algorithms. The big question locally, KCHA wall? OHX radar is solid pink. I deduce all snow up there if/when it starts snowing. It'll snow in Nashville and suburbs. Knoxvegas should go back to snow. CC rain-snow line is sinking south of TYS as I write. Mountains are already snow of course. Haven't looked hard at TRI qpf, but that'll be all snow if it does. Kingsport vs JC back-and-fourth cage match with folding chairs may be in effect, haha! Oh Chattanooga proper, can I say it? Bless our hearts! Still 50 deg at 10pm last night so... Well, at least we had Surprise Saturday. Signal Mountain is money though today! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Back to all rain at the moment. Seems to switch to snow when precipitation rates increase, so as was stated, this is rate induced. Any lull, and it goes back to liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, nrgjeff said: Thank you all for reports! I'm still catching up from page 5, but this is time sensitive. Correlation Coefficient out of Hytop shows the rain-snow line gradually sinking south. I've highlighted my manual adjustment. Close to the radar it should be right on. Ditto for higher elevations. Farther from the radar it's higher in the cloud; so, I manually move the line north. This is still better than most color radar algorithms. The big question locally, KCHA wall? OHX radar is solid pink. I deduce all snow up there if/when it starts snowing. It'll snow in Nashville and suburbs. Knoxvegas should go back to snow. CC rain-snow line is sinking south of TYS as I write. Mountains are already snow of course. Haven't looked hard at TRI qpf, but that'll be all snow if it does. Kingsport vs JC back-and-fourth cage match with folding chairs may be in effect, haha! Oh Chattanooga proper, can I say it? Bless our hearts! Still 50 deg at 10pm last night so... Well, at least we had Surprise Saturday. Signal Mountain is money though today! When do you think the areas above Chattanooga (Cleveland to Loudon) will transition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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