TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Did you look to see if it was from temps or qpf? . Cut qpf in half 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Plumes for Knoxville went down .07 qpf for the mean and went back down to around 2 inch average in snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 37 degrees, humidity rising. Hoping for 2 inches but expecting 1 or less. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 45/38 here....temps have leveled off, with DP climbing last hour or so. Definitely dont like where I'm sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 HRRR and RAP neither give the east TN valley a boost of confidence in the current situation. Here's hoping for the best, but I'm prepared for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 We may have received the kiss of death when Jeff got fully on board earlier. The forum area seems to do much better with “pessimistic Jeff”. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 HRRR and RAP neither give the east TN valley a boost of confidence in the current situation. Here's hoping for the best, but I'm prepared for the worst. Welcome back!!! Well....welcome to the new forum. Missed your posts on the other one. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Thx GH. Been in KY for some time. Family there, and helping where I can. Back for now, and hoping for snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I hope we can thread the needle and get a true near forum wide slider. It's a sad world when we get a weak gulf low with overrunning and a 1045+ HP in Iowa and it's not a slam dunk in February. That said, surely QPF won't be an issue. We've constantly out performed short range modeling on QPF for the last several months. Including the first system this week missing by an average of .25-.30 to low imby with that one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I was feeling hopeful when I dropped to 39 by 8 p.m. here in the foothills, but since then, I've risen to 41. So, having experienced winter weather here since 2003, I know how fickle it can be in the east TN valley. I've got my fingers crossed, but I'm getting older, and I can't keep them that way forever. When I roll out of bed in the morning, I'm prepared to see rain falling at 35. It's all good. I'm used to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Down to 36 now. Not sure how low I'll go before the clouds thicken and the temps stop falling or even rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Who’s gonna post some OBS overnight? Links for relevant satellites/temps/etc? best of luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Current radar looks better organized/further north than the 00z NAM had it around this timeframe. Probably 50 or so miles north of where it was depicted in Arkansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The 03z RAP that is starting now is also slightly south and less organized looking than the actual radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The 4z RAP, which is a pretty good model under 8-10 hours with some events, is starting to really key on West Tennessee out in its later range. It appears to be dropping heavy snow under its heavy returns but rain all around it. Creeping down here. DP has shot up. Wet bulb is holding around 32. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Have been studying weather for a hair over 25yrs and this is one of the reasons that makes E. TN so hard to forecast. For whatever reason (topography/angle of dry advection/etc), a small bubble of moisture has been trapped over southern Monroe Co into Polk Co all night. We can't seem to advect the dry air SE of Hwy 411. DP has been between 35-40 all night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 European basically held serve with 1-3ish from around Nashville and East. Now cast basically from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 18 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Have been studying weather for a hair over 25yrs and this is one of the reasons that makes E. TN so hard to forecast. For whatever reason (topography/angle of dry advection/etc), a small bubble of moisture has been trapped over southern Monroe Co into Polk Co all night. We can't seem to advect the dry air SE of Hwy 411. DP has been between 35-40 all night. There's so many microclimates here. I wonder if southerly flow is somehow going on there due to terrain or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 06Z NAM produced again. 1-4 inches widespread across the forum from Jackson to Nashville to Knox. Chatty area has rain/mixing issues but still manages some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Nashville put up winter weather advisories for their Plateau counties. MRX added two counties in SWVA and two on the Southern Plateau to a WWA. None issued elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Not looking too good in the Chattanooga area. With that said, Gatlinburg is now under a Winter storm warning until late tonight with heavy snow expected. Edit to add: The first picture is current Chattanooga observation. Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 MRX basically says too warm, NAM is wrong etc. Seems to feel this will bust even in areas they forecast snow. I have managed to hold steady in the mid 30s overnight. But they say even though I have 1-2 inches of snow forecast, they aren't confident my area will get enough moisture so didn't bother with a WWA because of the bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Returns starting to move overhead. Showing up as snow on radar but not reaching the ground yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Returns starting to move overhead. Showing up as snow on radar but not reaching the ground yet. Maybe some evaporational cooling will get the temps down enough for flakes. I think you’re in a good spot John. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Reb said: Maybe some evaporational cooling will get the temps down enough for flakes. I think you’re in a good spot John. I'm at 34.9 right now. Just need the qpf, MRX mentioned that as being the issue for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Current Wetbulbs show the plateau right at 32..central/southern valley 34-36 is uniform from Knox Co south. Looks like pretty much everyone will see some flakes, not sure how much (if any) can accumulate outside plateau/mtns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Current 0c 850 is from Jamestown to Greenville roughly. It crashes all the way into Northern Gulf coast states over the next 3-6 hours per modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Light rain has started here in Ooltewah. Temp dropped from 45* down to 40* in a matter of minutes. We still have a long way to go. I'm just not seeing us dropping too much more to get the conversion to all snow for any extended time. If it does snow I hope folks post pictures! I won't be able to see the light of day at work being at VW. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 Rain here too, but could be some wet snow mixed in, just hard to tell as dark as it still is. 37/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 MRX has lifted the SPS, not sure if they are going to issue something else or just not have any products at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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