TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks like a solid NAM run incoming once more. Looks like maybe even a tad better to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I think they go WWA for everyone except Knoxville south Down I-40 and Warnings for the mountains . Agree, soundings are very borderline south of 40 in the valley *as far as impacts to the roadways 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 Here's the whole run: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Here's the whole run:Oh lawd . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Here's the whole run: About the best setup statewide we can get, weak energy passing to the south (no ugly waa) but just strong enough to transport the moisture and lift 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for the mountains.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 55 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Inverted trough is now in the isobars. My chips are mostly snow if not all snow. I wonder if the modeling is picking up on that or if the rates could go a little higher than currently modeled...just not sure subtle inversions are built into the algorithm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I wonder if the modeling is picking up on that or if the rates could go a little higher than currently modeled...just not sure subtle inversions are built into the algorithm This is the question I have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Morristown seems to be running a little later than normal on their Afternoon Disco today, bet they are in serious debate at the moment. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: This is the question I have . Only ones I would think could, an uneducated guess, is 3k, HRRR, so on...just due to their very low resolutions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 30 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Freakin’ NAM. Pulls me in every time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Help! I've been NAM'ed for the second time in 2 weeks! I'm still super skeptical of temps. I said during the last event that I'd cut totals in half. I was wrong. Who knows what will happen this time. Fingers crossed! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Help! I've been NAM'ed for the second time in 2 weeks! I'm still super skeptical of temps. I said during the last event that I'd cut totals in half. I was wrong. Who knows what will happen this time. Fingers crossed!You where right to say that, it just over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Special Weather Statement lulz Across southwest Virginia, Tennessee valley and Plateau, light snow accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch is expected during the day Thursday but mainly over grassy and elevated surfaces. Locally heavier amounts are possible across the higher ridges and mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Will the SWA be upgraded to a WWA for the Valley? I'm probably the least educated person on this board, so forgive my ignorance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Forecast discussion for MRX basically boils down to soil temperatures & sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Not if they think only 1/2-1” will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Special Weather Statement lulz Across southwest Virginia, Tennessee valley and Plateau, light snow accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch is expected during the day Thursday but mainly over grassy and elevated surfaces. Locally heavier amounts are possible across the higher ridges and mountains. Looking at all the soundings for central/southern valley and plateau, I think that was a good call. WWA, WSW, and WSW products are mainly influenced by travel (2"-3" of snow of the grass while pretty has little impact on the public). Most soundings are in the 34/35 range, couple degrees warmer than last weeks system..not ideal for accumulation on the roadways. Think they went a little too low for accums on grass and think the plateau will go to an advisory at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 For anybody interested AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 341 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)... An active weather pattern with strong jet dynamics producing widespread precipitation through Thursday. For Tonight, a good deal of mid and high level clouds, especially southern half of the area initially. Deeper moisture begins to pull back into area toward daybreak Thursday. For Thursday, the strong jet dynamics with a 300mb jet of 150-160kts over the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states. The forcing will produce strong forcing with good fronto-genetic lift around the 600mb level. Models also show good isentropic lift. Initially, the temperature profile shows more of a mixture of rain/snow but once dynamic cooling ramps up the precipitation will change over the snow most locations. Looking at HREF ensembles, the Smoky Mountains will likely receive the most snowfall with up to 6 inches with generally 2 to 4. Have upgrade this area to a warning. The winter weather advisory for the rest of the east Tennessee Mountains and southwest North Carolina looks good. Big question is snow accumulations for the Tennessee valley and Plateau. Given the boundary layer temperature is marginal for snow, ground temperatures in the 30s/40s,and snowfall occurring during the day, snowfall will likely be limited to mainly grassy and elevated surfaces. Snow will taper off to light snow showers/furries by late afternoon and early evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: Inverted trough is now in the isobars. My chips are mostly snow if not all snow. Even for Chattanooga? Soundings look like rain at least for the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Looking at all the soundings for central/southern valley and plateau, I think that was a good call. WWA, WSW, and WSW products are mainly influenced by travel (2"-3" of snow of the grass while pretty has little impact on the public). Most soundings are in the 34/35 range, couple degrees warmer than last weeks system..not ideal for accumulation on the roadways. Think they went a little too low for accums on grass and think the plateau will go to an advisory at some point. From the way I read it they are only expecting .5-1" on grassy surfaces, road temps can also drop to support accumulating snow if there is a heavy enough band. Not sure how heavy this snow is supposed to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I thought most areas were supposed to get below freezing tonight (north of 40) Now I see lows in the 34 range. No wonder they are being conservative. If we could make it to around 29-30 it would have a much bigger impact, IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Looks like they are expecting heavy cloud cover tonight keeping the temps from dropping even more, but right now in Johnson City clouds are clearing out so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: From the way I read it they are only expecting .5-1" on grassy surfaces, road temps can also drop to support accumulating snow if there is a heavy enough band. Not sure how heavy this snow is supposed to be Yeah, I would cut the NAM totals by 1/2 to 1/3..so 1"-2" in central/southern valley (2"-3" in those areas where ridge tops get to 1200'-1500' plus). Last weeks soundings had Chatt around 32/33 (fairly spot on with actual observed)..it was close enough to 32 for higher rates to impact the roads. 34/35 is just too high for rates to cool, still could see shaded areas of roadways try to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Yep my low here was initially forecast for 31 and then it went to 33 but I see where it is now back to 31 for tonight. Just need a little more moisture that way. Temps just a degree or 2 one way or the other is going to make a difference, especially on the plateau and valley areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnwxwatcher Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Maybe some of us get some radiational cooling this PM? Wonder what our chances of staying semi-clear for a while are through the night to get some of that good radiational cooling? Then I wonder about evaporative cooling at the onset of the precip or will any of that play any factor in this current upcoming scenario?Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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