TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 12z Euro 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 Maybe some of us get some radiational cooling this PM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 @nrgjeff, do we still like the WRF ARW? That was a pretty big improvement at 12z for most folks south of I-40 and much of E TN... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 That back edge is right over my head in Roane county ATT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Best run of he year for the Euro. @Holston_River_Ramblerare you able to gif a 6 hour qpf type(edit) of the forum area? If not, I can post pics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Looking at the soundings across all models for eastern valley..NAM is coldest at the surface (would be similar roads to what Chatt experienced last week), while rest sit around 34-35 with the below freezing mark down to around 1500'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 Euro recent run over run trends through 12z today I stole these, hopefully KyloG doesn't kill me. That person can steal some of mine later, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 [mention=2545]nrgjeff[/mention], do we still like the WRF ARW? That was a pretty big improvement at 12z for most folks south of I-40 and much of E TN...FYI... the day of the SE Tennessee snow last Saturday the WRF was the only mod showing snow up to Knoxville. All 3 of those on pivotal made the jump to the NAM/Euro for tomorrow’s system . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 I think I mistook what you meant @Carvers Gap here ye go: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: FYI... the day of the SE Tennessee snow last Saturday the WRF was the only mod showing snow up to Knoxville. All 3 of those on pivotal made the jump to the NAM/Euro for tomorrow’s system . Yeah, I think Jeff likes to use that model. I just can't remember which circumstances. It really moved northwest at 12z. Looks like the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think I mistook what you meant @Carvers Gap here ye go: With precip type? LOL. I didn't say what I meant the first time. Sorry. Just trying to see the system move in. Looks like 12 hour duration event in NE TN on the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 We got a Cranky video analysis: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 Look like he is going with a northerly LP track too Actually never mind, he sides with RGEM, lol. Still interesting to see the surface features and how he looks at them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 @Holston_River_Rambler, here you go. These are three hour increments. And THANK YOU for your gifs!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 What time are we looking to start in the valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 And the Euro is All Snow baby! Picks up on isentropic lift, though such charts are not available. However one can deduce it from 700 mb which finally shows WAA but steady/falling temps at 700 mb. As MRX says we will be under the right rear/entrance of the jet max. That's ideal in winter if the moisture is available. Soundings are saturated through a deep DGZ. Oh it's the ARW version of the WRF I sometimes like. NAM is still my most used, simply because more charts at more levels are available. So my head says a dusting for KCHA but my heart is now thinking 2 inches could happen. Probably improves north and east from here, assuming the precipitation shield makes it. Plateu and now parts of Middle Tennessee also look good. Less than 24 hours away. Mahomes Magic time! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Reb said: What time are we looking to start in the valley? Maybe 6 - 8 AM is what I would guess for Knoxville area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I just want to see someone pull off the rare feat of going much AN for temps and normal snowfall for the month of February. Chattanooga may already be there. They could do much above for temps and snow. LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I just want to see someone pull off the rare feat of going much AN for temps and normal snowfall for the month of February. Chattanooga may already be there. They could do much above for temps and snow. LOL. That would be interesting . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 KCHA is already at season snow climo. Might go AN snow tomorrow! We are definitely playing with casino chips at this point. Along with record rainfall pace and ludicrous AN temps. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: That would be interesting . @tnweathernut gets credit for that thought. Pretty wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Maybe 6 - 8 AM is what I would guess for Knoxville area Another day off for the kids. Between the flu and flooding I think they are down to only a couple of "snow" days left. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Another day off for the kids. Between the flu and flooding I think they are down to only a couple of "snow" days left.KCS has 3 days left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 18z RAP coming in amped for precip rates. It shows rain for Knoxville, but the sounding says best guess preicp type = snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Really curious to see if MRX starts issuing advisories or just goes with their whole "Sun Angle" obsession. While I understand that does play a part, from my experience even in mid March I've seen snow accumulate on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Inverted trough is now in the isobars. My chips are mostly snow if not all snow. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Inverted trough is now in the isobars. My chips are mostly snow if not all snow.I’ve been waiting all day for this post. This might turn into something...... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Really curious to see if MRX starts issuing advisories or just goes with their whole "Sun Angle" obsession. While I understand that does play a part, from my experience even in mid March I've seen snow accumulate on roads.I think they go WWA for everyone except Knoxville south Down I-40 and Warnings for the mountains . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 Looks like a solid NAM run incoming once more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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