Ji Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 He's overrated. The GFS made that clear.As we always say.....next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowchaser said: Guys this was the forecast by accuweather within 36 hours of the 2018 snowstorm. They were calling for maybe 1-2” in Charlottesville and 1” for Richmond. As you can see Charlottesville got around 12” inches and Richmond got around 12” inches as well. Heavy snowfall even got into Colonial Beach. (Things can and will CHANGE and this is a great example of that.) #weenies The NAM caught on that Saturday morning, about 24 hrs before the event. The other models followed that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Ggem looks good for the Carolinas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 EURO caved and shows snow for the Carolinas now. Decent jog north that puts it better in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 It will trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 hours ago, Snowchaser said: DT is saying 1” for Charlottesville, 1-2” for Richmond and 3-5” for Raleigh Seems to be a bit of disagreement on the significance of the event. From Raleigh AFD- Snow amounts continue to remain highly uncertain in this event, however, thinking that raw model output remains way too high in this scenario. Several limiting factors remain at work, including: (1.) Persistent above freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the majority of the snowfall. The exception to the rule may be areas closer to the VA/NC border, however, these are the areas that will likely see far less QPF throughout the event (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not likely in an event like this, expect closer to 3:1 at precipitation changeover onset, 5:1 toward the middle of the event, and perhaps ending in vicinity of 10:1 if we are lucky. (3.) While the CAA process will be key in the original changeover, it will also become the ultimate limiting factor through the frozen ptype portion of the event. Gradual drying is expected to persistently take place in the lower-third of the boundary layer as the cold air slides south into the region. This will work to greatly reduce QPF from northwest to southeast in general. Higher amounts of QPF in the southeast will remain, however, dewpoints in the middle 30s will keep widespread snowfall accumulations from occurring. With these limiting factor in mind, have shifted the geographic location of accumulations a bit further north and west. Amounts are down a bit also with this run, topping out in the 1 - 2" range in northeastern Coastal Plain. From there, if you follow the US-64 further west, expect accumulations in vicinity of an inch with lesser amounts as you progress west of US-1 and south of US-64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Nam was a bit south as well for 06z. Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Wow, Euro caving to the NAM. Will have to file this one away for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 How exactly did the EURO cave? NAM is putting down ridiculous snow amounts. 0z Euro has a reasonable 1-4" verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: How exactly did the EURO cave? NAM is putting down ridiculous snow amounts. 0z Euro has a reasonable 1-4" verbatim. Probably should have said caved to the idea of snow -- not the amounts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: How exactly did the EURO cave? NAM is putting down ridiculous snow amounts. 0z Euro has a reasonable 1-4" verbatim. I certainly wouldn't say it caved per se...however, the Euro had virtually zero precip at 12 z yesterday for anything north of RDU and only about 0.05 at RDU with basically no snow in the entire state of NC. I don't believe the 1" QPF totals the nam is spitting out but I see that as a pretty big miss by the Euro at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: I certainly wouldn't say it caved per se...however, the Euro had virtually zero precip at 12 z yesterday for anything north of RDU and only about 0.05 at RDU with basically no snow in the entire state of NC. I don't believe the 1" QPF totals the nam is spitting out but I see that as a pretty big miss by the Euro at 60 hrs. I would have to go back and look but when i was still "interested" Monday and into Tuesday am, pretty sure the Euro was depicting 1-2" down that way. Maybe 12z yesterday was an off(drier) run. It has generally juiced up a little over the past 2 days for sure. This "cave" talk is mostly silliness though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I would have to go back and look but when i was still "interested" Monday and into Tuesday am, pretty sure the Euro was depicting 1-2" down that way. Maybe 12z yesterday was an off(drier) run. It has juiced up a little over the past 2 days for sure. This "cave" talk is mostly silliness though. I've been following since my brother lives down SE of RDU so I'm currently living vicariously through him (sad I know). Both the Euro and Ukie have been suppressed throughout this week with never any kind of "hit" anywhere in NC with the American models showing more potential. I clicked back through the previous runs and by far last nights 0z was the best. Could you imagine what would have happened to our board had the below happened at 60 HRs before the storm? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: I would have to go back and look but when i was still "interested" Monday and into Tuesday am, pretty sure the Euro was depicting 1-2" down that way. Maybe 12z yesterday was an off(drier) run. It has generally juiced up a little over the past 2 days for sure. This "cave" talk is mostly silliness though. I don’t know about snowmaps but Euro basically had no snow of any significance as late as yesterday. NAM was showing a storm. Now Euro is on board. Euro at 12z yesterday. NAM at 12z yesterday. Euro at 6z today. Looks a lot more like the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 20 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I don’t know about snowmaps but Euro basically had no snow of any significance as late as yesterday. NAM was showing a storm. Now Euro is on board. Euro at 12z yesterday. NAM at 12z yesterday. Euro at 6z today. Looks a lot more like the NAM. I generally agree in the overall synoptics of the storm...People just need to remember that the NAM, especially 12K, almost always overdoes QPF on southern stream storms. Take the 3K snow depth map and I think itll be close to verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA-Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I teach right here. Haven't had a snow day all year! I need a 10 mile shift north please and thank you. This reminds me somewhat of the December 2018 storm, last minute shifts North? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, VA-Snow said: I teach right here. Haven't had a snow day all year! I need a 10 mile shift north please and thank you. This reminds me somewhat of the December 2018 storm, last minute shifts North? Where is that...Stafford County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA-Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Where is that...Stafford County? Yes, south end almost into Fburg and King George Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, VA-Snow said: Yes, south end almost into Fburg and King George I live in Woodbridge, just north of Dale City....we will probably miss it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I live in Woodbridge, just north of Dale City....we will probably miss it I’d say you will definitely miss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA-Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I live in Woodbridge, just north of Dale City....we will probably miss it I live in Woodbridge too BUT work in Stafford, so hey, even if I don't see it, I get some benefits of a day off? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 WB 12Z 3K NAM...good luck southern folks! It will be a coup for the NAM if correct. ICON at 12Z is third of this in a much smaller area in east central NC, VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I thought it looked like a 1-2" deal for east central NC a day or so ago, and I would say that still looks about right. Maybe an area of 3 or a tad more in the jack zone if some decent banding sets up. It wont be very cold on the front end and this thing wont be hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 if you need me, I'll be hugging the GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 Also, FWIW, the 06z EPS was slightly interesting, only in the sense that I think a clear trend emerges. Most of the runs that have a storm consistent with what the other models are showing (a moderate snowstorm for the Carolinas) do get snow into at least the central part of our subforum, if not slightly further north. Is it a lot of snow? No. But if the snowier Carolina solutions should be taken seriously, it shows there is an opening for some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 EURO continues to cave and goes more north/snowier in North Carolina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO continues to cave and goes more north/snowier in North Carolina. Sweet 0.20 in Charlottesville 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO continues to cave and goes more north/snowier in North Carolina. I still have 4-5 more runs for that to jog 20ish miles north. I will hold out hope for seeing flakes til the bitter end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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