Eskimo Joe Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is the upgraded National Blend of Models product, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 18z Nam is looking good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: 18z Nam is looking good My confused emoji aside (you said this with barely any of it out) I would expect this to come north a bit more... confluence looks to have backed off and is weaker in general. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: My confused emoji aside (you said this with barely any of it out) I would expect this to come north a bit more... confluence looks to have backed off and is weaker in general. We'll see. looks like it went a bit south. welp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: looks like it went a bit south. welp Yeah, probably about a ~20-30 mile jump south. Would just be noise if some of us in Central VA didn't need every mile. it actually bumped the heavy stuff a hair more north, but it's a pretty strong cutoff. still close... I can hear DT honking from my house 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This is the upgraded National Blend of Models product, right? I do not know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Nobody from OBX to Raleigh is seeing more than 4 or 5 inches. Those snow maps are absurd. Has me getting 12in or more. Never going to happen. It is interesting though the light showers that we've had on and off today in North Eastern North Carolina have contained sleet pellets. Shows you it's getting colder on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I-64 seems like it’ll be the cut off for 1 inch or more imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 Good thread for the Central VA folks: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Idk . I'm betting many areas in the higher qpf zones just away from the beaches see 6"+ easy with lollies of 8" +. Most snow will be falling after dark with surface 30-34 range dropping a bit overnight and good rates and banding features most likely . Not to mention 10 hours or more duration for many . Good luck and enjoy! The only thing showing that at this point anymore is the NAMs...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Nice to have something to follow its High Pressure watching time to see if it can relax to about 30.25 come crunch time 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Nice to have something to follow its High Pressure watching time to see if it can relax to about 30.25 come crunch time Yeah if we're willing to chase to Central North North Carolina lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 53 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yeah if we're willing to chase to Central North North Carolina lol Then go play In 5-15 day everything and nothing fantasy land 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 DT messaged me on Facebook because I told him I thought he’s basing his forecast off the NAM. We’re currently having a back and forth on Facebook messenger lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA-Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just 10-20 more miles north please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: DT messaged me on Facebook because I told him I thought he’s basing his forecast off the NAM. We’re currently having a back and forth on Facebook messenger lol I don’t remember very positive things towards our new stations last December, (no one in particular if i remember correctly, just them in general) because none of the models were getting anything right, but the NAM did, and the news stations kept bumping up their totals as the night went on. Afterwards they apologized multiple times, and it was just... I’m sure he loves the NAM. Edit: Already going after them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 GEFS continues to give Charlottesville/Central VA a little tease. One can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 18z Euro joins rest of guidance with upping snow totals down south Even gets stray flakes into Md . Nams ftw lol You realize the NAMS still show 7+ and in the case of 12k, a foot right? Let’s see what happens but I wouldn’t call it a win overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On another note, DT is now being cordial with me and showing meteorologists who are predicting even more than he is..some guy names Jamey Singleton lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 18z Euro joins rest of guidance with upping snow totals down south Even gets stray flakes into Md . Nams ftw lol That's dirty talk. I'm right on the water so I'm worried any NE or N wind can turn me over to rain. I need W or NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS continues to give Charlottesville/Central VA a little tease. One can hope 70% for one inch or more is pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Sure do and the trend has been obvious. The globals esp the Euro was way too dry and suppressed even 36 hrs ago . Even the Gfs was too dry. Timing looks good. Qpf looks juicy . Good banding looks to develope. Surface 30-34 should be easily overcome imo. I fully expect a large area of 3-6" with lollies of 8" maybe 10". But hey..I'm just tracking from afar for fun. I can’t disagree more. It’s a weak system. And the temps are marginal. A general 1-4” is the best call and that’s what the NWS and most outlets are going with. Maybe if EVERYTHING goes right a few lucky spots get 6” but you’re basing everything on the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 Latest 3k even more impressive with moisture transport at 700mb . The frontogen maps really suggest there should be banding further north.... will it actually happen? Idk. I’m expecting a decent last second north jump either way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 850 mb frontogen really jumped up this run on the 3k in E. NC ...I'm sure that's not a coincidence that 1 hour snowfall rates are 1.5 inch + in spots there . Also 1" + in SE VA . From Met ILMross in SE Forum...he's thinking along the same lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 WB 6z 3k NAM/ GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 WSWs now up for SE VA and NE NC. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ096-097-201645- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Bertie-Chowan- Perquimans-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Including the cities of Margarettsville, Ahoskie, Corapeake, Elizabeth City, Horseshoe, Lilly, Sharon, Quitsna, Edenhouse, Merry Hill, Midway, Windsor, Cape Colony, Edenton, Hancock, Macedonia, Mavaton, Saint Johns, Valhalla, Jacocks, Woodville, Chuckatuck, Cleopus, Crittenden, Deanes, Downtown Suffolk, Driver, Elwood, Mount Pleasant, Bowers Hill, Chesapeake Airport, Deep Creek, Fentress, Great Bridge, and Greenbrier 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to snow. Snow may be heavy at times tonight. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible. Wind gusst up to 30 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 NCZ017-VAZ087>090-092-093-095-098-523>525-201645- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ Western Currituck-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Virginia Beach-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- Including the cities of Knotts Island, Emporia, Wakefield, Barham, Gwaltney Corner, Bacons Castle, Chippokes State Park, Hog Island Game Reserve, Poolesville, Booth Fork, Williamsburg, Franklin, Carrsville, Lees Mill, Benns Church, Bethel Church, Carrollton, Lawson, Longview, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, Grafton, Tabb, Beaconsdale, Denbigh, Fort Eustis, Hilton Village, Lee Hall, Menchville, Newport News, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to all snow. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times this evening. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .Rain through much of the day will transition to snow from northwest to southeast between this evening and early tonight. Snow will be heavy at times overnight with the highest snow totals across the northern half of Eastern NC. Snow will taper off Friday morning, with gusty winds continuing through the day. NCZ046-081-202115- /O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1500Z/ Tyrrell-Mainland Hyde- Including the cities of Columbia, Gum Neck, Engelhard, Fairfield, Ponzer, Scranton, and Swanquarter 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Tyrrell and Mainland Hyde Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .Rain through much of the day will transition to snow from northwest to southeast between this evening and early tonight. Snow will be heavy at times overnight with the highest snow totals across the northern half of Eastern NC. Snow will taper off Friday morning, with gusty winds continuing through the day. NCZ029-044-045-079-080-091-193-202115- /O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.200220T2100Z-200221T1500Z/ Martin-Pitt-Washington-Greene-Beaufort-Lenoir-Northern Craven- Including the cities of Williamston, Robersonville, Oak City, Jamesville, Greenville, Bethel, Farmville, Grifton, Grimesland, Plymouth, Roper, Creswell, Snow Hill, Hookerton, Walstonburg, Washington, Chocowinity, Belhaven, Bath, Aurora, Kinston, La Grange, Pink Hill, Vanceboro, Ernul, Dover, and Cove City 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Martin, Pitt, Washington, Greene, Beaufort, Lenoir and Northern Craven Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .Rain through much of the day will transition to snow from northwest to southeast between this evening and early tonight. Snow will be heavy at times overnight with the highest snow totals across the northern half of Eastern NC. Snow will taper off Friday morning, with gusty winds continuing through the day. NCZ047-202115- /O.UPG.KMHX.WW.Y.0001.200221T0500Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1500Z/ Mainland Dare- Including the cities of Manns Harbor, Stumpy Point, and East Lake 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Mainland Dare County. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Raleigh NC 340 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...Accumulating snow is likely across much of central North Carolina today and tonight... .Precipitation will overspread the area from the southwest early today. While the precipitation will initially be all rain, a transition to a wintry mix or a mix of rain and snow is expected during the afternoon. A transition to all snow from north to south is expected thereafter. NCZ009>011-026>028-043-078-202045- /O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.200220T1500Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0001.200220T1500Z-200221T1200Z/ Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne- Including the cities of Henderson, Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Roanoke Rapids, Enfield, Scotland Neck, Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Princeville, Wilson, and Goldsboro 340 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Northern and Central Coastal Plain counties of North Carolina. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Looking at the latest Mesos (3K, 12K Nams) we are seeing slightly less dig from the shortwave. This is resulting less of a southerly component to the winds at 700 mbs and up which is what is driving the moisture over the colder air. You can see the results if you look at the FGEN maps as that has weakened. Hence we see a contraction southward of the precip as well as a reduction on snow totals. One thing to keep an eye on is to see how much dig we do in fact see with the SW at both 700 mbs and 500 mbs. More dig = more snow and farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 So tempting to go to my family's beach place on the eastern shore just to see snow. Its in northampton co. They might have 5 plows total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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