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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Never bet against the ECMWF. NAM and other models appear to be caving slowly to ECMWF and UKMET. IMHO

Eh, I wouldn't say that. Euro and NAM are extremely far a part. NAM is just consistently moving the southern fringes slightly further north. 

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22 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

The 6z Euro was not drier than the 0z run. Definitely still drier than other models, but the main/control/mean all bumped slightly north with QPF. It just spent over a whole day going back and forth with every single run. 

Exactly. This narrative that the 6z Euro was drier than the 0z is false. 

 

3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Never bet against the ECMWF. NAM and other models appear to be caving slowly to ECMWF and UKMET. IMHO

Watching the 12z NAM now, but through prior runs, this is not correct. The Euro has shifted toward the NAM, not the other way around. 

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2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

IPJ has a +2C warm nose right around there

Yeah, that's not too far south of me.  Continued shifts like this put me more and more in the mix.

From what I can tell, the warm nose is not predominantly banked up against the mountains in a SW to NE manner but is more oriented W to E.  And, it has been moving steadily northward on subsequent runs of the NAM.  That's not good for lots of us, given the general NW trend that we are accustomed to.

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Given how often systems this winter have  been wetter than expected or at a bare minimal not drier than expected, I think I would lean toward the wetter ones if I was in nc. This idea that the euro is never wrong or  is right the vast majority of the time is bizarre to me. I often wonder if the developers of it invented memory swipes too because it  seems like people always forget that it's wrong quite a lot too. That being said, it might be right this time but I wouldn't favor it vs the weight of all the other guidance.

33 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

There’s a ton of evaporational cooling that occurs so you don’t need that.  It’s the same thing that happened in the upstate two weeks ago.

 I agree..not sure where this idea it wont be cold enough in nc is coming from. 

 

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

Welp... Just got screw zoned on that one. Dropped from 5 inches mostly snow on last run to under 2 inches of wet slop... Sincerely hope it is over-amped and thus too warm. 

Yep..nam is super aggressive with that warm nose at 750 to 825mb.....would screw pretty much all of the upstate and even into nc/Charlotte for a good while. 

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