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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

 


https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20

6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again.  This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier.  NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record.  

Yeah, it's definitely an odd one to track for this reason (no clear trends overall). The 12z suite will hopefully give us a clearer picture

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Just now, griteater said:

I like the idea of this meeting in the middle with the model runs today and tomorrow.  The NAM is too wet and the Euro is too dry.

I agree with that.  I think we start to see a decrease in QPF across the board with the 12Z suite.  That trend will continue for a couple runs, is my prediction.  NAM and GFS overamplifying, IMO.

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Based on what I saw, the 6Z Euro did not look good.  It was the most anemic with moisture out of the last 4 runs and all other models.

 

Yeah , I just dont see how we can get to excited with the other models because the Euro Is not buying it.... although the Euro hasn't been great lately..

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Based on what I saw, the 6Z Euro did not look good.  It was the most anemic with moisture out of the last 4 runs and all other models.

 

The 6Z euro had precip up into northern NC. The  0Z Euro didn’t get precip to the NC/SC line. Pretty significant shift. 

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18 minutes ago, griteater said:

I like the idea of this meeting in the middle with the model runs today and tomorrow.  The NAM is too wet and the Euro is too dry.

That would make sense and give most of NC a decent snow event.  However the euro and gfs are on the warmer side of things even if they get wetter.  Nam this morning has crept the rain line up to clt.  Getting dangerously close to our back yards even on the coldest model. Hoping today and tomorrow things trend colder and that high does work.  Like you said yesterday, higher heights for this storm may fight the cold push a bit.  Never like seeing higher heights in the SE when trying to get cold in.  

image.thumb.png.f930abb4c58407f569692382ad124ae0.png

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

NAM really warming aloft on 3 straight runs now. Went from solid likely snow from the start to probably starting as rain or mix if I'm lucky now. 

Never bet against the ECMWF. NAM and other models appear to be caving slowly to ECMWF and UKMET. IMHO

 

As I have mentioned before, temps appear to be an issue. Rates may not overcome it.

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