calculus1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The lee-side snow minimum is ominously hinted at in each of these snow maps that are posted. Regardless of the overall amounts in NC, the lowest totals are consistently forecasted in a strip including Surry, Wilkes, Caldwell, and Burke Counties. That's too close for comfort to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20 6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again. This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier. NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record. Yeah, it's definitely an odd one to track for this reason (no clear trends overall). The 12z suite will hopefully give us a clearer picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I like the idea of this meeting in the middle with the model runs today and tomorrow. The NAM is too wet and the Euro is too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, griteater said: I like the idea of this meeting in the middle with the model runs today and tomorrow. The NAM is too wet and the Euro is too dry. I agree with that. I think we start to see a decrease in QPF across the board with the 12Z suite. That trend will continue for a couple runs, is my prediction. NAM and GFS overamplifying, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Looks like the caving has already began with the euro at 6Z. Snow on 40 corridor from TN through NC. Euro caving before 6 hours out is a big win for the euro. Rough times lately for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Looks like the caving has already began with the euro at 6Z. Snow on 40 corridor from TN through NC. Euro caving before 6 hours out is a big win for the euro. Rough times lately for it. So you're saying the 6z Euro looks good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BornAgain13 said: So you're saying the 6z Euro looks good? Based on what I saw, the 6Z Euro did not look good. It was the most anemic with moisture out of the last 4 runs and all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Based on what I saw, the 6Z Euro did not look good. It was the most anemic with moisture out of the last 4 runs and all other models. Yeah , I just dont see how we can get to excited with the other models because the Euro Is not buying it.... although the Euro hasn't been great lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Based on what I saw, the 6Z Euro did not look good. It was the most anemic with moisture out of the last 4 runs and all other models. The 6Z euro had precip up into northern NC. The 0Z Euro didn’t get precip to the NC/SC line. Pretty significant shift. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 18 minutes ago, griteater said: I like the idea of this meeting in the middle with the model runs today and tomorrow. The NAM is too wet and the Euro is too dry. That would make sense and give most of NC a decent snow event. However the euro and gfs are on the warmer side of things even if they get wetter. Nam this morning has crept the rain line up to clt. Getting dangerously close to our back yards even on the coldest model. Hoping today and tomorrow things trend colder and that high does work. Like you said yesterday, higher heights for this storm may fight the cold push a bit. Never like seeing higher heights in the SE when trying to get cold in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 High placement is not ideal for a lot of quick low level cold. We need the high to slide east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: High placement is not ideal for a lot of quick low level cold. We need the high to slide east. There’s a ton of evaporational cooling that occurs so you don’t need that. It’s the same thing that happened in the upstate two weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Triple threat cage matchCMC/ICON/NAM vs. GFS vs. ECMWF/UKIEModels are going to be swinging punches today, lots of shiftsSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The 6z Euro was not drier than the 0z run. Definitely still drier than other models, but the main/control/mean all bumped slightly north with QPF. It just spent over a whole day going back and forth with every single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Out to 36, the nam appears it may be a bit flatter with less precip to the north. Let's see where it goes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Out to 36, the nam appears it may be a bit flatter with less precip to the north. Let's see where it goes.. Out to 42 , looks like it has more to the north than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 This is going to be another good run of the 12k NAM as far as I can tell. The 3K hasn’t got there just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Out to 42 , looks like it has more to the north than 6z yep and faster and warmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Yeah looks like it will be another moist run on the NAM. It's quicker too...getting precip into the western upstate by 7AM Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 12z NAM holding serve! About to go Boom!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 NAM really warming aloft on 3 straight runs now. Went from solid likely snow from the start to probably starting as rain or mix if I'm lucky now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Looks like the rates of precipitation quickly cool the atmosphere in NC. Went from rain at hour 48 in KHKY to snow by 51, but it's REALLY close to a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: This is going to be another good run of the 12k NAM as far as I can tell. The 3K hasn’t got there just yet. So is it really a quadruple threat cage match with the 3k and 12k NAMs on different sides? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: NAM really warming aloft on 3 straight runs now. Went from solid likely snow from the start to probably starting as rain or mix if I'm lucky now. Never bet against the ECMWF. NAM and other models appear to be caving slowly to ECMWF and UKMET. IMHO As I have mentioned before, temps appear to be an issue. Rates may not overcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Never bet against the ECMWF. NAM and other models appear to be caving slowly to ECMWF and UKMET. IMHO Actually quite the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Charlotte and SC won't like this run but it goes over to snow as the coastal gets going 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: Charlotte and SC won't like this run A lot of sleet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 This is the sounding for KHKY at hour 54 on the 12Z NAM. That 750mb level is too close for comfort to the 32 F line... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 This is valid for basically myself and sean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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