jjwxman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 00z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Wow, Canadian is significantly warmer than GFS/NAM. I thought that it was generally one of the coldest models most of the time? Or is that something that has been fixed in their recent upgrades? The fact that it's apparently a better model than the GFS now isn't comforting lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Wow, Canadian is significantly warmer than GFS/NAM. I thought that it was generally one of the coldest models most of the time? Or is that something that has been fixed in their recent upgrades? The fact that it's apparently a better model than the GFS now isn't comforting lol I believe it gets that stigma because it models CAD events better than some of the other globals do when we're talking winter storms, but this overrunning setup is not usually what we are dealing with 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I'm having issues pulling up the UK on pivotal wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 UKMET show anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: UKMET show anything? Never loaded for me on pivotal.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I know in past years I've seen the occasional post mentioning increased data gathering around this point in a storm's timeline. Has anyone heard if the NWS is planning to get additional information into the initialization of the models?? Or, would this system not impact a large enough area for that?? Edit - It got really quiet in here... spooky!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I know in past years I've seen the occasional post mentioning increased data gathering around this point in a storm's timeline. Has anyone heard if the NWS is planning to get additional information into the initialization of the models?? Or, would this system not impact a large enough area for that?? Edit - It got really quiet in here... spooky!!!It is also almost 1am, people are tired, and several of us are trying to calm our hearts after Ryan Newman's wreck in the Daytona 500.Anyway, here are the 0z GFS suitesSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 ECMWF still not on board. Even more suppressed. Until it is on board it would be wise to believe its solution. Looks warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 ECMWF still not on board. Even more suppressed. Until it is on board it would be wise to believe its solution. Looks warm as well.More suppressed than 12z?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: More suppressed than 12z? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 UKMET show anything? Never loaded for me on pivotal..found the UKMO... It trended cooler at the surface but still too warm (12z and 0z runs for 6pm Thursday). Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: ECMWF still not on board. Even more suppressed. Until it is on board it would be wise to believe its solution. Looks warm as well. 850s didn't change very much. It's warmer at the surface because of less precip and therefore less wet bulbing. I would assume that's what is showing on the UKMET also. That is what the surface will look like without sufficient QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 45 minutes ago, The Alchemist said: I know in past years I've seen the occasional post mentioning increased data gathering around this point in a storm's timeline. Has anyone heard if the NWS is planning to get additional information into the initialization of the models?? Or, would this system not impact a large enough area for that?? Edit - It got really quiet in here... spooky!!! Can almost certainly say 'no' on this. Those are reserved for much more significant events (i.e. Hurricane Dorian, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3am Disco:&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cold front to slip south through the FA Wednesday, while upper energy shifts to our east. It appears that most of the precip will be shifting towards the south and east during the day. Cooler temps to also filter in behind the front. Slow moving front to remain to our south Thursday while another upper disturbance moves east across the region ahead of an upper trough digging into the region. A surface wave is progged to develop off the SE coast and move NE. Cooler air will continue to work into our FA from the strong parent Canadian high to our NW while guidance continues to indicate precipitation for our FA Thursday into Thursday night. Some questions about precipitation type Thursday nt, mainly to our NE. Latest model ensemble means indicate some light snow accum across our E/NE FA. Local top down tool indicates a period of rain/snow mix Thu nt for the central and east FA. Confidence limited due to several key factors in our local perfect storm approach for significant winter weather not being met. Main issue is cold air not being in place before the onset of precip but rather is coming in as the precipitation/moisture is shifting out. Even if a period of light snow occurs, surface temps appear will be above freezing and warm soil temps would lead to melting and reduced impacts. Will leave in rain/snow mix for Thu nt but will not indicate snow accum at this time.Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6z NAM looks even better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6z NAM. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6z clown map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Pretty dramatic jump northward on that run with the snow totals. As someone getting closer and closer to the southern fringes, this is not a trend I want to see continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 For what it’s worth, this is the 3k at hour 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 If the 3K NAM is correct, you won’t be wasting any initial precip across most of NC. If there’s a warm layer, it’s above 700MB. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6z 3km and 12km NAM... Both at hr60Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GSP For the rest of the forecast period, all eyes and interests remainon the potential for snow across the area Thursday and Thursdaynight. The general consensus of the latest model guidance continuesto place the recently passed cold front well south of the area, withcyclogenesis progged to develop somewhere along this feature justoff the Carolina/GA coast. However, in regards to available moistureand supportive upper dynamics, guidance just isn`t in agreement.This has been a trend for the past few days, with models coming inwetter one run, then drier the next. With this latest run, the 00ZECMWF comes in slightly drier than before. With that said,collaborating with neighbors, have kept with the bulk of themoisture coming in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night (at orless than a quarter of an inch QPF), as colder temperaturesinfiltrate in. However, per latest guidance and fcst soundings,anticipate precipitation to begin as early as Thursday morningacross the southern mountains, where a rain, snow, rain/snow mix isexpected at the onset of precip. As the precipitation expandsnortheastward into the area, areas along and south of the I-85corridor look to remain warm enough for all rain through theafternoon and evening hours, as max temperatures climb into thelower 40s. While areas over the NW Piedmont could see a fewsnowflakes mixed in. A transition to a rain/snow mix is expectedinto Thursday night as any lingering precipitation tapers off andtemperatures drop. Given the warmer temperatures during the day, donot anticipate any travel concerns at this time across the Upstateand NW Piedmont. As for the mountains, max temperatures on Thursdaywill struggle to warm as much as the Upstate and NW Piedmont, withmany areas progged to remain around freezing. Thus, snowaccumulations will be possible, mainly a dusting to below an inch insome locations, with up to 2 inches possible across the higherelevations. With this said, any slight changes in the coming modelruns will easily change the outcome of this event. Thus, best tokeep close attention as we draw closer in time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6z clown mapLove the consistency on the nam. Here’s to a solid day of tracking. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 After analyzing the overnight runs, our surface temperatures will still be an issue in central NC. Rates will overcome that but as soon as the precip lets up or stops, they will shoot back up (except for extreme overnight hours perhaps). I could see this being a sloppy/wet snow on grass and raised surfaces, melting by mid-day Friday. Better than what we have had, though. Originally, this was a win for eastern and southeastern NC... But looking at the 3K nam, northern NC should be a little more excited with less mixing and temperature issues. Local station (WRAL) still going with the possibility of a wintry mix with some accumulation bridges? Moisture and cold air limited are their 2 reasons. RAH discussion is in line with this. Temperatures remain above freezing at surface until storm departs. They even say that most of the area will dry pre-dawn limited black ice potential. Quote Precipitation should clear out of central NC rapidly pre-dawn Friday leaving sub-freezing temperatures and a light northerly breeze in its wake until sunrise. With sustained northerly winds in the 6 to 10mph range, thinking that drying processes in the coldest areas should limit the black ice/flash freeze potential for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20 6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again. This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier. NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20 6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again. This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier. NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record. The King has spoken... lets see how long it takes for the NAM to sit down and shut up. Or maybe the NAM storms the castle!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 It's really close here and in Puckens and Ne Ga. Depending on who's soundings you pull up. Some say rain, some snow and some mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20 6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again. This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier. NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record. Hard to bet against Euro/Ukie, but the ECMWF does not have a good record the last few events...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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